mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 funny thing about the CRAS.....look at the date it would hit us deja vu baby! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 funny thing about the CRAS.....look at the date it would hit us deja vu baby! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif It's a bad model right...wish I didn't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any good on the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's a bad model right...wish I didn't see it we look at a lot of models that are wrong one day and then right the next.....it's called blind faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any good on the Canadian? it's like playing "hide and seek" wrt these model....getting closer, closer, closer,.... http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It would be nice to see the Euro start a more northerly trend this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It would be nice to see the Euro start a more northerly trend this afternoon. it'll take that or the GFS before anyone can get seriously interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The January 21st storm the CRAS led the way. It did really. Just plain coincidence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If I see the RGEM get on board, then I'll be excited. It led the way last week with sniffing out a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The CRAS solution is goofy... it flattens out the trough, yet there is more phasing with the last NS piece (our only hope btw) and more amplified storm? About the only thing it has right is there could be more phasing and better timing, so if this thing ends up getting us, no one better say the CRAS got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If I see the RGEM get on board, then I'll be excited. It led the way last week with sniffing out a coastal. RGEM only goes out to 48 hrs and the 48 hr. map is dicey; when it's 24-36 hrs away it gets better for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The CRAS solution is goofy... it flattens out the trough, yet there is more phasing with the last NS piece (our only hope btw) and more amplified storm? About the only thing it has right is there could be more phasing and better timing, so if this thing ends up getting us, no one better say the CRAS got it right. I doubt anyone would be concerned how it happens if it happens, but being the first model to actually show a hit would require kudos in the mind of any weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I doubt anyone would be concerned how it happens if it happens, but being the first model to actually show a hit would require kudos in the mind of any weenie seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution. ETA: Honestly I feel like the NAM is catching on pretty well... its gradually moving toward less stream separation and better timing. I feel like so many people these days don't look at h5 or h3 anymore and just focus on the sfc when trying to forecast, other than looking at h5 to say thats a nice vort, good position etc etc. Shortwave orientation, stream positioning, conservation of vorticity all matter as to the evolution of these systems. This so called "north trend" we are seeing this year is due to the fact models are not progressive enough with features and when it works out in our favor it is often due to timing, trough positioning and jet orientation. I am focussed on this period, because a more progressive solution actually lines up in our favor for a change, but right now the timing is off... still not off enough to be concerned. People will be shocked if this thing changes at the surface because it will be a drastic change, even though the change at h5 and h3 has been gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution I think you misunderstood I was giving a purely weenie perspective that all of us have in varying degrees and at different times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think you misunderstood I was giving a purely weenie perspective that all of us have in varying degrees and at different times valid point...read the rest of my post though... if I want weenie perspective I'd go to the banter thread... these threads should be for serious model discussion... jmho... I rarely have time to post these days because of my job, but I contribute where I feel I can. I have liked this period since the second vortex invasion became evident and if we miss it will be due to bad timing, not to bad synoptic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Same look on GEFS for wed-thurs. The hits all have organized lp off the coast. Looks like 2 ok hits and another 3-4 close calls. Best case imo is getting lucky with a deep lp circulation in the SE and getting grazed. Odds of accum snow are prob 25% at best for the cities. SE of us much better obviously. Definitely signal on d10-11 on the gefs. Mixed bag of solutions but enough look pretty good. The rain/snow boundary and height patterns in general are so far from resolved that it doesn't matter much at this lead. A lot of members showing a decent storm. Haven't seen a tight cluster like that at long leads all season. Weekend still has some ok looks. Weaker wave gives us a shot as snow. More organized wave gives us rain. Odds would prob favor rain for us city dwellers. Could be fun to track. GEFS has definitely switched to a cold stormy look through the end of the run. Almost unanimous that it will be cold enough for snow. This could get real interesting. Feb is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Regardless of the models, it seems to me we are not in the mix with the Wed-Thurs storm as Matt, Wes, Ian and Ji have not commented on this storm. Just my experience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z EURO is still well SE. Coastal Carolina gets 12+. Pretty wild..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Same look on GEFS for wed-thurs. The hits all have organized lp off the coast. Looks like 2 ok hits and another 3-4 close calls. Best case imo is getting lucky with a deep lp circulation in the SE and getting grazed. Odds of accum snow are prob 25% at best for the cities. SE of us much better obviously. Definitely signal on d10-11 on the gefs. Mixed bag of solutions but enough look pretty good. The rain/snow boundary and height patterns in general are so far from resolved that it doesn't matter much at this lead. A lot of members showing a decent storm. Haven't seen a tight cluster like that at long leads all season. Weekend still has some ok looks. Weaker wave gives us a shot as snow. More organized wave gives us rain. Odds would prob favor rain for us city dwellers. Could be fun to track. GEFS has definitely switched to a cold stormy look through the end of the run. Almost unanimous that it will be cold enough for snow. This could get real interesting. Feb is looking good. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but the 12Z op GFS sure looked pretty cold and stormy in the longer range too. And of course the storm it's advertising around day 10 or so. I'm sure that will change 100s of times, but it's an indication of what could happen in a good scenario. There seems to be a lot of high pressure around and the southern stream looks to become active. It can be tricky, of course, but definitely interesting and looking at what the GFS has been showing, I think we have reason to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Cras has been known to catch on to things early. Too soon to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z EURO is still well SE. Coastal Carolina gets 12+. Pretty wild..... this type of pattern (arctic intrusion) is really the only way they can get snow; good for them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but the 12Z op GFS sure looked pretty cold and stormy in the longer range too. And of course the storm it's advertising around day 10 or so. I'm sure that will change 100s of times, but it's an indication of what could happen in a good scenario. There seems to be a lot of high pressure around and the southern stream looks to become active. It can be tricky, of course, but definitely interesting and looking at what the GFS has been showing, I think we have reason to be optimistic. Ensemble run is outstanding d11-15. -AO and hints of a west based -nao. Best look all year. It's a weenie run for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z EURO is still well SE. Coastal Carolina gets 12+. Pretty wild..... How far inland? I'm keeping my dear mom updated. She's about 45 miles west of myr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 People around here start getting antsy for snow because they know time is not on our side. Probably 3-4 good weeks left for legit snow potential before things become more difficult....based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gfs has been pretty consistent with a super wet something after Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 There does seem to have been a northward trend for most systems this winter which the models are also hinting at for next week. A lot can still change this many days away. The 12Z Euro still looks slightly more north at 9Z on Wednesday with the northern snow axis just into extreme southeast Virginia versus just south of the VA/NC border from the 0Z run. What's against us I believe is the modeled track seems to ride right along the Gulf Stream and out to sea. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/GulfStream_compare.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How far inland? I'm keeping my dear mom updated. She's about 45 miles west of myr Here ya go...assuming 10:1 ratios of course. I didn't check the temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro moving towards a significant storm for someone on Mon-tues after the superbowl. Right now we are on the losing side. PA gets destroyed. Slight change in hp to the N puts us in the game. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here ya go...assuming 10:1 ratios of course. I didn't check the temps though. Thanks a lot. Prob on the order if 2-4 for her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro moving towards a significant storm for someone on Mon-tues after the superbowl. Right now we are on the losing side. PA gets destroyed. Slight change in hp to the N puts us in the game. I like it. he!! of a long way to go before we get there and the Euro has been more wound up in the long range than usual this year so I'm with you on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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