CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 And the NAM dumps a foot in the panhandle of Florida. Yep. Its coming north. GFS trending. SREFs more than hinting at it. If we had the SREFs back in Jan 2000, that storm would not have been a total surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Its coming north. GFS trending. SREFs more than hinting at it. If we had the SREFs back in Jan 2000, that storm would not have been a total surprise. Meh...while the door isn't completely closed, I think this is a SE deal. I HOPE I'm wrong and I'm not giving up..but this doesn't have the feel. We saw a "trend" before and it backed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Its coming north. GFS trending. SREFs more than hinting at it. If we had the SREFs back in Jan 2000, that storm would not have been a total surprise. Problem is, what is brining it north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Meh...while the door isn't completely closed, I think this is a SE deal. I HOPE I'm wrong and I'm not giving up..but this doesn't have the feel. We saw a "trend" before and it backed down. You just want to go visit your mom. Stay strong with your "other" family here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS day 10-11 HECS. DC might change over but N&W probably stays snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Don't look at the CRAS Way north.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 After seeing this, I hope they get it. Poor kids. http://www.live5news.com/slideshow?widgetid=102526 Eh, who am I kidding.....come north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS at day 11 has us with a foot or more and 2-3 feet in the mountains. Woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Problem is, what is brining it north? Im just showin the faith. In all honesty I dont give it a great chance. High pressure to our west/southwest is not going to be much help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS day 10-11 HECS. DC might change over but N&W probably stays snow. It's actually warm at the start and cold air filters in. With that strong STJ-- would likely have ptype issues from WAA (Assuming High PWATS) SOI dipped, so it's a possible set up. What I take is cold and moisture will be close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This upcoming pattern looks fun to me...won't be perfect but it will be interesting to track the squeeze play going on...and no torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Don't look at the CRAS Way north.......... who's looking at the CRAS???......ME! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 who's looking at the CRAS???......ME! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_m_loop.html Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 funny thing about the CRAS.....look at the date it would hit us deja vu baby! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 funny thing about the CRAS.....look at the date it would hit us deja vu baby! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif It's a bad model right...wish I didn't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any good on the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's a bad model right...wish I didn't see it we look at a lot of models that are wrong one day and then right the next.....it's called blind faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any good on the Canadian? it's like playing "hide and seek" wrt these model....getting closer, closer, closer,.... http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It would be nice to see the Euro start a more northerly trend this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It would be nice to see the Euro start a more northerly trend this afternoon. it'll take that or the GFS before anyone can get seriously interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The January 21st storm the CRAS led the way. It did really. Just plain coincidence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If I see the RGEM get on board, then I'll be excited. It led the way last week with sniffing out a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The CRAS solution is goofy... it flattens out the trough, yet there is more phasing with the last NS piece (our only hope btw) and more amplified storm? About the only thing it has right is there could be more phasing and better timing, so if this thing ends up getting us, no one better say the CRAS got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If I see the RGEM get on board, then I'll be excited. It led the way last week with sniffing out a coastal. RGEM only goes out to 48 hrs and the 48 hr. map is dicey; when it's 24-36 hrs away it gets better for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The CRAS solution is goofy... it flattens out the trough, yet there is more phasing with the last NS piece (our only hope btw) and more amplified storm? About the only thing it has right is there could be more phasing and better timing, so if this thing ends up getting us, no one better say the CRAS got it right. I doubt anyone would be concerned how it happens if it happens, but being the first model to actually show a hit would require kudos in the mind of any weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I doubt anyone would be concerned how it happens if it happens, but being the first model to actually show a hit would require kudos in the mind of any weenie seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution. ETA: Honestly I feel like the NAM is catching on pretty well... its gradually moving toward less stream separation and better timing. I feel like so many people these days don't look at h5 or h3 anymore and just focus on the sfc when trying to forecast, other than looking at h5 to say thats a nice vort, good position etc etc. Shortwave orientation, stream positioning, conservation of vorticity all matter as to the evolution of these systems. This so called "north trend" we are seeing this year is due to the fact models are not progressive enough with features and when it works out in our favor it is often due to timing, trough positioning and jet orientation. I am focussed on this period, because a more progressive solution actually lines up in our favor for a change, but right now the timing is off... still not off enough to be concerned. People will be shocked if this thing changes at the surface because it will be a drastic change, even though the change at h5 and h3 has been gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution I think you misunderstood I was giving a purely weenie perspective that all of us have in varying degrees and at different times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think you misunderstood I was giving a purely weenie perspective that all of us have in varying degrees and at different times valid point...read the rest of my post though... if I want weenie perspective I'd go to the banter thread... these threads should be for serious model discussion... jmho... I rarely have time to post these days because of my job, but I contribute where I feel I can. I have liked this period since the second vortex invasion became evident and if we miss it will be due to bad timing, not to bad synoptic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Same look on GEFS for wed-thurs. The hits all have organized lp off the coast. Looks like 2 ok hits and another 3-4 close calls. Best case imo is getting lucky with a deep lp circulation in the SE and getting grazed. Odds of accum snow are prob 25% at best for the cities. SE of us much better obviously. Definitely signal on d10-11 on the gefs. Mixed bag of solutions but enough look pretty good. The rain/snow boundary and height patterns in general are so far from resolved that it doesn't matter much at this lead. A lot of members showing a decent storm. Haven't seen a tight cluster like that at long leads all season. Weekend still has some ok looks. Weaker wave gives us a shot as snow. More organized wave gives us rain. Odds would prob favor rain for us city dwellers. Could be fun to track. GEFS has definitely switched to a cold stormy look through the end of the run. Almost unanimous that it will be cold enough for snow. This could get real interesting. Feb is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Regardless of the models, it seems to me we are not in the mix with the Wed-Thurs storm as Matt, Wes, Ian and Ji have not commented on this storm. Just my experience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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