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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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The CRAS solution is goofy... it flattens out the trough, yet there is more phasing with the last NS piece (our only hope btw) and more amplified storm? About the only thing it has right is there could be more phasing and better timing, so if this thing ends up getting us, no one better say the CRAS got it right.

I doubt anyone would be concerned how it happens if it happens, but being the first model to actually show a hit would require kudos in the mind of any weenie

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I doubt anyone would be concerned how it happens if it happens, but being the first model to actually show a hit would require kudos in the mind of any weenie

 

seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution.

 

ETA: Honestly I feel like the NAM is catching on pretty well... its gradually moving toward less stream separation and better timing. I feel like so many people these days don't look at h5 or h3 anymore and just focus on the sfc when trying to forecast, other than looking at h5 to say thats a nice vort, good position etc etc. Shortwave orientation, stream positioning, conservation of vorticity all matter as to the evolution of these systems. This so called "north trend" we are seeing this year is due to the fact models are not progressive enough with features and when it works out in our favor it is often due to timing, trough positioning and jet orientation.

 

I am focussed on this period, because a more progressive solution actually lines up in our favor for a change, but right now the timing is off... still not off enough to be concerned. People will be shocked if this thing changes at the surface because it will be a drastic change, even though the change at h5 and h3 has been gradual.

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seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution

I think you misunderstood I was giving a purely weenie perspective that all of us have in varying degrees and at different times

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I think you misunderstood I was giving a purely weenie perspective that all of us have in varying degrees and at different times

 

valid point...read the rest of my post though... if I want weenie perspective I'd go to the banter thread... these threads should be for serious model discussion... jmho... I rarely have time to post these days because of my job, but I contribute where I feel I can. I have liked this period since the second vortex invasion became evident and if we miss it will be due to bad timing, not to bad synoptic evolution. 

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Same look on GEFS for wed-thurs. The hits all have organized lp off the coast. Looks like 2 ok hits and another 3-4 close calls. Best case imo is getting lucky with a deep lp circulation in the SE and getting grazed. Odds of accum snow are prob 25% at best for the cities. SE of us much better obviously.

Definitely signal on d10-11 on the gefs. Mixed bag of solutions but enough look pretty good. The rain/snow boundary and height patterns in general are so far from resolved that it doesn't matter much at this lead. A lot of members showing a decent storm. Haven't seen a tight cluster like that at long leads all season.

Weekend still has some ok looks. Weaker wave gives us a shot as snow. More organized wave gives us rain. Odds would prob favor rain for us city dwellers. Could be fun to track.

GEFS has definitely switched to a cold stormy look through the end of the run. Almost unanimous that it will be cold enough for snow. This could get real interesting. Feb is looking good.

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Same look on GEFS for wed-thurs. The hits all have organized lp off the coast. Looks like 2 ok hits and another 3-4 close calls. Best case imo is getting lucky with a deep lp circulation in the SE and getting grazed. Odds of accum snow are prob 25% at best for the cities. SE of us much better obviously.

Definitely signal on d10-11 on the gefs. Mixed bag of solutions but enough look pretty good. The rain/snow boundary and height patterns in general are so far from resolved that it doesn't matter much at this lead. A lot of members showing a decent storm. Haven't seen a tight cluster like that at long leads all season.

Weekend still has some ok looks. Weaker wave gives us a shot as snow. More organized wave gives us rain. Odds would prob favor rain for us city dwellers. Could be fun to track.

GEFS has definitely switched to a cold stormy look through the end of the run. Almost unanimous that it will be cold enough for snow. This could get real interesting. Feb is looking good.

 

I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but the 12Z op GFS sure looked pretty cold and stormy in the longer range too.  And of course the storm it's advertising around day 10 or so.  I'm sure that will change 100s of times, but it's an indication of what could happen in a good scenario.  There seems to be a lot of high pressure around and the southern stream looks to become active.  It can be tricky, of course, but definitely interesting and looking at what the GFS has been showing, I think we have reason to be optimistic.

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I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but the 12Z op GFS sure looked pretty cold and stormy in the longer range too. And of course the storm it's advertising around day 10 or so. I'm sure that will change 100s of times, but it's an indication of what could happen in a good scenario. There seems to be a lot of high pressure around and the southern stream looks to become active. It can be tricky, of course, but definitely interesting and looking at what the GFS has been showing, I think we have reason to be optimistic.

Ensemble run is outstanding d11-15. -AO and hints of a west based -nao. Best look all year. It's a weenie run for the MA.

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There does seem to have been a northward trend for most systems this winter which the models are also hinting at for next week. A lot can still change this many days away. The 12Z Euro still looks slightly more north at 9Z on Wednesday with the northern snow axis just into extreme southeast Virginia versus just south of the VA/NC border from the 0Z run. What's against us I believe is the modeled track seems to ride right along the Gulf Stream and out to sea. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/GulfStream_compare.shtml

GScomp_NCOMHR.png

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Euro moving towards a significant storm for someone on Mon-tues after the superbowl. Right now we are on the losing side. PA gets destroyed. Slight change in hp to the N puts us in the game. I like it

he!! of a long way to go before we get there and the Euro has been more wound up in the long range than usual this year so I'm with you on that

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