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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Someone pointed out yesterday this could still mean very cold rain/mix situations more often...does look sweet though and better than red colors

 

 

Mitch loves the CFSv2. And it seems to love us, but it wouldn't totally surprise me if we're cold and dry with the occasional mild up with rain.

 

Yeah, I saw that when someone pointed out it could be cold/dry and warmer/wet averaging out to cold and wet for the month.  I know that can be a possibility and a worthy caveat to consider; it would seem to just be our luck were that to happen!  But I think we can be at least somewhat optimistic that should this forecast verify for February, we'd be able to score a decent event or two.

 

It sure is better than seeing the opposite!

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Yeah, I saw that when someone pointed out it could be cold/dry warmer/wet averaging out to cold and wet for the month. I know that can be a possibility, and would seem to just be our luck were that to happen! But I think we can be at least somewhat optimistic that should this forecast verify for February, we'd be able to score a decent event or two.

It sure is better than seeing the opposite!

Definitely, but I can't help but feel like a but of an Eeyore. I'll believe model runs and pattern talk when I actually see it happen.

The other Deb thing is that we might be cold in late February, but it might not be cold enough to support snow. I'd f'ing *hate* to see that.

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Definitely, but I can't help but feel like a but of an Eeyore. I'll believe model runs and pattern talk when I actually see it happen.

The other Deb thing is that we might be cold in late February, but it might not be cold enough to support snow. I'd f'ing *hate* to see that.

 

I hear you...the last 3 winters can make an Eeyore out of all of us.  Somehow, in this forum, we're pretty good at knowing how we can get screwed.  We don't expect or assume that we'll get good snow (like some other forums, perhaps? :whistle: ).  Which I suppose makes the hits all the more fun when they happen!

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HPC is putting 30% probs of an inch or more through the RIC metro. Coastal SE up to the Hampton Roads has to like where they sit with this one. Not saying it will be a blockbuster but obviously their expectations are slightly different.

 

I'm always encouraged reading your analysis Bob - thanks again. It's strange to be sitting in the same N or NW position that you guys are normally in. Wishing systems N usually seems to work for DC but this is a slightly different animal than a vort tracking over the NC/VA border. As you said, the surface lp development will be key. Have to be intrigued by the trends on the ensembles.

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I hear you...the last 3 winters can make an Eeyore out of all of us.  Somehow, in this forum, we're pretty good at knowing how we can get screwed.  We don't expect or assume that we'll get good snow (like some other forums, perhaps? :whistle: ).  Which I suppose makes the hits all the more fun when they happen!

Agree. We need to watch every model run closely...as if we don't... as little changes will have big results....I will need to go AA when this winter is over since the happy hour run has turned me into an alcoholic...but it's all for the cause

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12z GFS absolutely destroys NC

The GFS does a good thing in digging the n/s deeper with each run. Thats a good trend for those wanting this to come north. Issue is it doesn't interact with the southern vort thats there. GFS needs to show a s/s vort in a location more so like the NAM did in its latest run. If so, it could come back to the north/northwest in future runs. 

 

Actually interested to see what the means have to say. 

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You're right probably not. Its mainly sleet and zr after some rain for them. 850 temps are not supportive of all snow.

The NAM is even worse. Would love to see the video of NW Florida dealing with roads and a bunch of snow. Would be our version if Cairo earlier this year.

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Its coming north. GFS trending. SREFs more than hinting at it. If we had the SREFs  back in Jan 2000, that storm would not have been a total surprise.

Meh...while the door isn't completely closed, I think this is a SE deal.  I HOPE I'm wrong and I'm not giving up..but this doesn't have the feel.  We saw a "trend" before and it backed down.

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Meh...while the door isn't completely closed, I think this is a SE deal.  I HOPE I'm wrong and I'm not giving up..but this doesn't have the feel.  We saw a "trend" before and it backed down.

You just want to go visit your mom. Stay strong with your "other" family here.

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GFS day 10-11 HECS. DC might change over but N&W probably stays snow.

 

 

It's actually warm at the start and cold air filters in. With that strong STJ-- would likely have ptype issues from WAA (Assuming High PWATS) SOI dipped, so it's a possible set up. 

 

What I take is cold and moisture will be close..

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