Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Canadian gives us a nice 72hr ice storm that's still not over at 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 All we can do is watch and wait. Temps have been in our favor most of met winter and trends leading in have worked out more often than not. Gotta watch high latitudes. This isn't an amplified setup. We will rely on broad hp to the n to make it work. I hope my thoughts on the ao are right. We're going to need some help EPS likes the setup considering the lead Canadian ensembles have that -AO temp distribution look to them Bob http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 0z EURO run was pretty sweet starting next weekend and beyond. It has a train of moisture aimed at the Mid-Atlantic with an arctic boundary straddling us. Rain, ice, and snow are all on the table. Certainly not boring.... Also the Wed-Thur storm is back into far SE VA fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 just sayin' http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_084_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p12&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 just sayin' http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_084_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p12&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Hmm.... and 6z GFS has it more NW than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The possible Wednesday event continues to tantalize us. We really don't need much of a course correction to get in on some of the fun. I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 just thought I'd mention that today's CFS2 has gotten even colder AND wetter for FEB than any prior daily run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 just thought I'd mention that today's CFS2 has gotten even colder AND wetter for FEB than any prior daily run Well aren't you just the bearer of winter weather optimism this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well aren't you just the bearer of winter weather optimism this morning just wait a couple of hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 3 of the 6z gefs.members get us on the nw edge of the precip shield. Some near misses too. Sfefs apparently seeing the same. If the trend continues through tonight we may score something The members that get us have much more defined slp development down south around georgia/sc. We should focus on that development Down the line is going to be brutal on the nerves. Lots of moisture and we will remain very close on the win/lose line EPS pretty warm here around day 10 but cools us back down going forward. Gefs much colder here in that timeframe. Next weekend clearly on the radar now. Some snow/mixy solutions on the members. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 just thought I'd mention that today's CFS2 has gotten even colder AND wetter for FEB than any prior daily run Man, if only something like this can verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Man, if only something like this can verify! Someone pointed out yesterday this could still mean very cold rain/mix situations more often...does look sweet though and better than red colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mitch loves the CFSv2. And it seems to love us, but it wouldn't totally surprise me if we're cold and dry with the occasional mild up with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That said, looking at the precip distribution, it looks like the CFS might be seeing a pattern of lows coming up the Tennessee Valley and reforming along the Carolina coast. Am I mistaken, and does that makes sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Someone pointed out yesterday this could still mean very cold rain/mix situations more often...does look sweet though and better than red colors Mitch loves the CFSv2. And it seems to love us, but it wouldn't totally surprise me if we're cold and dry with the occasional mild up with rain. Yeah, I saw that when someone pointed out it could be cold/dry and warmer/wet averaging out to cold and wet for the month. I know that can be a possibility and a worthy caveat to consider; it would seem to just be our luck were that to happen! But I think we can be at least somewhat optimistic that should this forecast verify for February, we'd be able to score a decent event or two. It sure is better than seeing the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah, I saw that when someone pointed out it could be cold/dry warmer/wet averaging out to cold and wet for the month. I know that can be a possibility, and would seem to just be our luck were that to happen! But I think we can be at least somewhat optimistic that should this forecast verify for February, we'd be able to score a decent event or two. It sure is better than seeing the opposite! Definitely, but I can't help but feel like a but of an Eeyore. I'll believe model runs and pattern talk when I actually see it happen. The other Deb thing is that we might be cold in late February, but it might not be cold enough to support snow. I'd f'ing *hate* to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Definitely, but I can't help but feel like a but of an Eeyore. I'll believe model runs and pattern talk when I actually see it happen. The other Deb thing is that we might be cold in late February, but it might not be cold enough to support snow. I'd f'ing *hate* to see that. I hear you...the last 3 winters can make an Eeyore out of all of us. Somehow, in this forum, we're pretty good at knowing how we can get screwed. We don't expect or assume that we'll get good snow (like some other forums, perhaps? ). Which I suppose makes the hits all the more fun when they happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HPC is putting 30% probs of an inch or more through the RIC metro. Coastal SE up to the Hampton Roads has to like where they sit with this one. Not saying it will be a blockbuster but obviously their expectations are slightly different. I'm always encouraged reading your analysis Bob - thanks again. It's strange to be sitting in the same N or NW position that you guys are normally in. Wishing systems N usually seems to work for DC but this is a slightly different animal than a vort tracking over the NC/VA border. As you said, the surface lp development will be key. Have to be intrigued by the trends on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 More day 10 storms on the horizon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I hear you...the last 3 winters can make an Eeyore out of all of us. Somehow, in this forum, we're pretty good at knowing how we can get screwed. We don't expect or assume that we'll get good snow (like some other forums, perhaps? ). Which I suppose makes the hits all the more fun when they happen! Agree. We need to watch every model run closely...as if we don't... as little changes will have big results....I will need to go AA when this winter is over since the happy hour run has turned me into an alcoholic...but it's all for the cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GFS absolutely destroys NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GFS absolutely destroys NC The GFS does a good thing in digging the n/s deeper with each run. Thats a good trend for those wanting this to come north. Issue is it doesn't interact with the southern vort thats there. GFS needs to show a s/s vort in a location more so like the NAM did in its latest run. If so, it could come back to the north/northwest in future runs. Actually interested to see what the means have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would hate to be in the bullseye right now.... how often has that worked out for us in the past? Still I'd like to see the precip shield continue slowly inching up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12Z NAM is a great example how a 3 stream phase can go entirely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is goofy. A foot of snow on the ground in Charleston, SC. Yeah, that isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 OBX gets like 48 hours of continuous snow on the GFS. It's not all heavy snow but that is a long term event down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 And the NAM dumps a foot in the panhandle of Florida. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is goofy. A foot of snow on the ground in Charleston, SC. Yeah, that isn't happening. March 1980 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is goofy. A foot of snow on the ground in Charleston, SC. Yeah, that isn't happening.You're right probably not. Its mainly sleet and zr after some rain for them. 850 temps are not supportive of all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You're right probably not. Its mainly sleet and zr after some rain for them. 850 temps are not supportive of all snow. The NAM is even worse. Would love to see the video of NW Florida dealing with roads and a bunch of snow. Would be our version if Cairo earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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