Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 If and that's a big if, the idea is right the lower levels will trend colder as we approach. South of 40 not all the waves will be snow but some should or parts of some. It's not a bad pattern but true it's better the further north you go. 18z gfs continues the trend towards a rain snow boundary with hp pressing from the north. I kinda like the look. At least it will be wet. Cold dry is boring. Much will hinge on whether we can get some blocking going. Lots of hints. We have a long ways to go before really understanding what side we'll reside on. Fun times ahead. And now the gfs introduces a pre superbowl cutter. I say bring it. Antecedent airmass could make it fun for us on the front end depending on timing/strength/track etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z gfs continues the trend towards a rain snow boundary with hp pressing from the north. I kinda like the look. At least it will be wet. Cold dry is boring. Much will hinge on whether we can get some blocking going. Lots of hints. We have a long ways to go before really understanding what side we'll reside on. Fun times ahead. And now the gfs introduces a pre superbowl cutter. I say bring it. Antecedent airmass could make it fun for us on the front end depending on timing/strength/track etc. what's troubling to this weenie mind is that the 18Z GFS depicts one way that the CFS2 prediction in FEB of below normal temps/above normal precip could happen.....not exactly what I was thinking the past 2 weeks of CFS2 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 what's troubling to this weenie mind is that the 18Z GFS depicts one way that the CFS2 prediction in FEB of below normal temps/above normal precip could happen.....not exactly what I was thinking the past 2 weeks of CFS2 maps Yes...very cold rain...actually never thought of that...always imagine above precip and below temps to mean snow...maybe in Albany but not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We are back to suckage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 We are back to suckage Over half the EPS members showing snow solutions for 2/1-2/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We are back to suckage Not yet...and the magnitude of suckage is not known at this point. The suckage only exists in the model guidance. SO we might not have suckage at all, or maybe only minor suckage. But then we could end up with total mega suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'd still rather what is coming than cold and dry...there should be some close calls and tough forecasts so at least some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'd still rather what is coming than cold and dry...there should be some close calls and tough forecasts so at least some fun But cold and dry keeps snow on the ground. I kinda like it. Although it might be worth the risk of losing it for a shot at something bigger. I feel like a compulsive gambler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 But cold and dry keeps snow on the ground. I kinda like it. Although it might be worth the risk of losing it for a shot at something bigger. I feel like a compulsive gambler. We are all a bit compulsive on this board...but at least when we lose no one gets hurt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No way models will figure out where the boundary will be 10 days out. I remember at psu in 2003 the mrf was showing rain even up there for PDII at day 8 or so. Then by day 5 I was worried it would stay south of me. Lets let this pattern set up before we declare it a disaster. It won't be wall to wall cold but if we get 2 rains and 2 snows is it that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No way models will figure out where the boundary will be 10 days out. I remember at psu in 2003 the mrf was showing rain even up there for PDII at day 8 or so. Then by day 5 I was worried it would stay south of me. Lets let this pattern set up before we declare it a disaster. It won't be wall to wall cold but if we get 2 rains and 2 snows is it that bad? You will be on the good side more often than not I think...the boundary needs to set up in RIC for all of us to smile and that will be a tall order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well that's it folks let the weenie suicides begin. A plethora of feb Cleveland steamers are coming to end our winter. Goodbye cruel weenie world. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You will be on the good side more often than not I think...the boundary needs to set up in RIC for all of us to smile and that will be a tall orderNot necessarily remember feb 2003 that storm started as rain in northern va. The arctic high timed right and pressed the cold in right as the stj moisture plume arrived. If you can time up a wave as a high slides to our north you can get snow down into dc. Just depends. Feb 94 was similar but the boundary set up a bit north so it was mostly ice events but one epic sleet storm in there. Just have to see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well that's it folks let the weenie suicides begin. A plethora of feb Cleveland steamers are coming to end our winter. Goodbye cruel weenie world.Sent from my iPhone Prozac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Bob...Thanks for the feedback and continuation of that discussion...good points. It is very true the NAO is far more variable than the AO, and forecasting that for any length is difficult. Likewise, the point that having a -AO surely increases the chance of a -NAO, but no guarantee there. As you said, we certainly can score with at least a neutral NAO if we keep the AO negative (even if not a "big" event). It would be nice if the (model) hints of a possible -NAO in the offing are on the correct track. Wes...Interesting, I did not realize that for "moderate" level events, the AO phase is more important, but upon considering it for awhile, kind of makes sense. I've posted the graph before, more 4 inch or greater events are associated with a negative AO than NAO. The 8 inch or more favor a neg nao but not by much....probably not by enough to be statistically significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The NAM still intrigues me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 No way models will figure out where the boundary will be 10 days out. I remember at psu in 2003 the mrf was showing rain even up there for PDII at day 8 or so. Then by day 5 I was worried it would stay south of me. Lets let this pattern set up before we declare it a disaster. It won't be wall to wall cold but if we get 2 rains and 2 snows is it that bad? No, it wouldn't be bad at all. Any snow is good. I'm gunning for straight #s now. I don't care if it's snow to rain. Vice versa. Ice is fine too. I don't care if it melts quick or washes away. We've had plenty of unusual cold this winter. Multiple events. Snow on the ground for a week+ for pretty much everyone after Tuesday. I've skated on a pond and it was safe. Not sure what else I can ask for except hitting climo in any shape or form. I think I'll get it too. As for the pattern...nobody is happy about getting warm but it's been favored for a while in early Feb. Take it in stride. Were not done yet and I'm already pretty happy. There are already good signs emerging for once we get past a 4-5 day warm spell. It might only be 3 days for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well that's it folks let the weenie suicides begin. A plethora of feb Cleveland steamers are coming to end our winter. Goodbye cruel weenie world. Sent from my iPhone If thats the case then you can stay away until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No, it wouldn't be bad at all. Any snow is good. I'm gunning for straight #s now. I don't care if it's snow to rain. Vice versa. Ice is fine too. I don't care if it melts quick or washes away. We've had plenty of unusual cold this winter. Multiple events. Snow on the ground for a week+ for pretty much everyone after Tuesday. I've skated on a pond and it was safe. Not sure what else I can ask for except hitting climo in any shape or form. I think I'll get it too. As for the pattern...nobody is happy about getting warm but it's been favored for a while in early Feb. Take it in stride. Were not done yet and I'm already pretty happy. There are already good signs emerging for once we get past a 4-5 day warm spell. It might only be 3 days for all we know. Advertised warmth has been short lived or not realized all winter. Heck a few days ago the forecasted high here was 40 for today. The high was 28. I actually wont mind a few days in the 40s or even 50 for a day. I dont want 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Tonight's 00z GFS may have kept the door open a millimeter for Wednesday... even though it missed, h5 looked pretty good for a lil bit... Bob what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How's the Wed fish fry shaping up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not yet...and the magnitude of suckage is not known at this point. The suckage only exists in the model guidance. SO we might not have suckage at all, or maybe only minor suckage. But then we could end up with total mega suckage. Suckageddon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 00z gfs looks more amped up....And a tad north than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not necessarily remember feb 2003 that storm started as rain in northern va. The arctic high timed right and pressed the cold in right as the stj moisture plume arrived. If you can time up a wave as a high slides to our north you can get snow down into dc. Just depends. Feb 94 was similar but the boundary set up a bit north so it was mostly ice events but one epic sleet storm in there. Just have to see how it goes. I was here in the DC area then, and I remember this for PD-II in 2003. The 500-mb heights were actually quite high (for the given temperatures) with a general SW-NE flow, and it was shaping up to be a classic overrunning event as I recall. The temperature forecasts over the weekend were for it to be quite cold. Of course, at that time we had good blocking and something like a 1040-mb high over southeast Canada pushing down. Temperatures were moderate that Friday with some light rain/snow at night, then on Saturday it got progressively colder...and then very cold. I distinctly remember wet ground getting iced over as temperatures fell pretty quickly, and we got some very light snow during Saturday. Then we got the heavy snow pouring into that Arctic air mass very late Saturday night and all day Sunday; it literally blew up from the start. Yeah, we got sleeted on much of Sunday night, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 00z gfs looks more amped up....And a tad north than the last run. it's got that piece of energy on its heels on the west flank of the pv....I don't see how it can happen for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well that's it folks let the weenie suicides begin. A plethora of feb Cleveland steamers are coming to end our winter. Goodbye cruel weenie world.Sent from my iPhone Throw in a Hot Karl or two and winter will surely be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 0z gfs will make some friends tonight. Winning side of the boundary. SE ridge.....what se ridge? Every single warmup has been muted since the Dec torch. Hard to bet against until we're wearing shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I was here in the DC area then, and I remember this for PD-II in 2003. The 500-mb heights were actually quite high (for the given temperatures) with a general SW-NE flow, and it was shaping up to be a classic overrunning event as I recall. The temperature forecasts over the weekend were for it to be quite cold. Of course, at that time we had good blocking and something like a 1040-mb high over southeast Canada pushing down. Temperatures were moderate that Friday with some light rain/snow at night, then on Saturday it got progressively colder...and then very cold. I distinctly remember wet ground getting iced over as temperatures fell pretty quickly, and we got some very light snow during Saturday. Then we got the heavy snow pouring into that Arctic air mass very late Saturday night and all day Sunday; it literally blew up from the start. Yeah, we got sleeted on much of Sunday night, but still. I went to Massanutten with some friends on Friday night. We hit I-81 and it was rain. We got to the hotel in Harrisonburg, The rain mixed with snow and started accumulating on the mulch. Then it became all snow by midnight Friday/Saturday and accumulated an inch by 230am. The hotel was at 500 feet ASL. I went to bed then woke at 623am and looked outside, snow was ripping and there were 3 inches on all surfaces. The temp was 29. So - while my friends were all still in the arms of Morpheus, I took a jebwalk, a classic jebwalk down Main Street. It was snowing pretty good. There were 3 inches of wet snow on the ground. There was this NE wind. First the wind was at my back. I walked quite a ways down Main Street. Then I turned to go back, and that wind was in my face and then huge flakes began falling and I was forced to walk backwards. I finally got back to the hotel. I was plastered in snow. My friends asked me, "Cold enough for you Jeb? Had enough snow yet?" For once I was too damn cold to reply. We ate breakfast then we drove all over, finally went to the resort for some skiing. It snowed on and off all day, it was around 30 degrees then in the afternoon it started getting colder. That night it was 19 degrees with steady snow and a northeast wind that blew right thru my coat. Snow simply piled up. I was on a jebwalk most of the evening til 2am. It snowed and snowed and that northeast wind blew the flakes right past the streetlights! Soon we had 6 inches, then 8 inches, then 10 inches. It was getting hard to walk. Drifts were forming on the parking lots. I had brought a Jebman shovel with me and I was digging snow, piling it up. I did not get any sleep that night because my friends panicked and left at 6am because we had 14 inches on the ground with near whiteout conditions and we left. I - 81 was a whiteout. We were slidin all over the place. A big truck half drove, half slid ahead, whipping the powder snow into a milkshake froth. Everyone in the car was praying for the storm to let up. I was praying silently for colder weather, even stronger winds and extremely heavy snows. I was in Heaven. Everyone else was pretty concerned. We made it back. I shoveled out three of my friends' walks out of the snow. Dale City at that time had about 6 inches. The snow intensified over Dale City in the afternoon and night, we got about 12 inches of snow then we were treated to four inches of sleet. What a memorable storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yeah Bob, GFS ain't that bad at all and great compared to the last 3 or 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 yeah Bob, GFS ain't that bad at all and great compared to the last 3 or 4 runsAll we can do is watch and wait. Temps have been in our favor most of met winter and trends leading in have worked out more often than not. Gotta watch high latitudes. This isn't an amplified setup. We will rely on broad hp to the n to make it work. I hope my thoughts on the ao are right. We're going to need some help EPS likes the setup considering the lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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