SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 0.1 line through all of VA, 0.25 through central VA, makes me think it's still possible to get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gefs members only shows 2 hits for midweek. Both look sweet but the vast majority are misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Day 7-10 on GFS & EURO are both showing a SE RIDGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Day 7-10 on GFS & EURO are both showing a SE RIDGE In the summer that is heat , what is it for winter? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In the summer that is heat , what is it for winter? Sent from my iPhone same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In the summer that is heat , what is it for winter? Sent from my iPhone same That's what I thought... Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Mid week is still in play. Globals should finally start to agree on "something" by the end of the weekend SREFs agree! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM at 36 looks like it is 3 hours later in time than at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Gfs ggem and ecmwf all warm the mid Atlantic dramatically and say rain in the 6-10 day period. I don't buy it 100% yet but it has shaken my belief in how the pattern would evolve. However both the euro ensemble and gefs bring the cold back in the 10-15 day. Perhaps we end up where we want but have to take a different route to get there. I recall Matt mentioning to Wes the other day how surprisingly half of the supercomputer analogs showed dates that were followed by warm ups....I guess it was onto something (with the caveat that it hasn't happened yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 SREFs agree! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Movin on up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm not sure I'm ready to buy in to any period of extended warmth. Seasonal trends would say that isn't going to happen. A 2-3 day thaw with a return to cold on the other end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I recall Matt mentioning to Wes the other day how surprisingly half of the supercomputer analogs showed dates that were followed by warm ups....I guess it was onto something (with the caveat that it hasn't happened yet)Yea in the last 3 days the analogs went from pretty good to awful. Yesterday's none were particularly good for snow and most weren't even that cold anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Mid week is still in play. Globals should finally start to agree on "something" by the end of the weekendNeed the h5 trough to dig further west and separate a peice from the pv like the nam and sref show. That also forces the high to drop further west. Nothing's happening if the high is in eastern Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 BECS Storm for Mrtyle Beach? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think the nam is focused on the wrong vort though. There are two waves and I think it's the second that has more potential but keeping the front closer like that and digging the trough further west is a good sign either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think the nam is focused on the wrong vort though. There are two waves and I think it's the second that has more potential but keeping the front closer like that and digging the trough further west is a good sign either way And at least it diverts our attention from the 800 lb elephant in the room being the SE ridge the models are advertising for later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And at least it diverts our attention from the 800 lb elephant in the room being the SE ridge the models are advertising for later onWell everyone is so busy crying over the op runs they didn't notice the 6z gefs is actually great in the long range. The eps isn't bad either. Check out hr 277 on gefs. Who cares what an op run shows at 200 hours. This battle is far from lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I would take NAM @ 84 hours in a heart beat, think it would lead to a snowstorm midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well everyone is so busy crying over the op runs they didn't notice the 6z gefs is actually great in the long range. The eps isn't bad either. Check out hr 277 on gefs. Who cares what an op run shows at 200 hours. This battle is far from lost. Agree. If by some chance the NAM is on to something for Wed and this thing moves NW it will prove it...if I were in S PA or N MD I would be more optimistic though...Westminister MD is the where I need to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well everyone is so busy crying over the op runs they didn't notice the 6z gefs is actually great in the long range. The eps isn't bad either. Check out hr 277 on gefs. Who cares what an op run shows at 200 hours. This battle is far from lost. I'm not worried at all. All this se ridge talk sounds much worse than reality. The se ridge is nothing more than return flow from a deep arctic airmass because the high slides off the coast. Big deal. It's highly unlikely to be a stable feature considering high latitude height pattern and another monster -epo. It's nothing more than a transient part of the pattern and it was expected. And we will prob get some rain in the next 10 days. Hardly unusual. Ensemble guidance looks fine for future snow chances. Could be a fun feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We should be getting close to the time that the models finally settle in on a solution with the mid-week storm. Maybe 12Z today will show a good hint at what will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Glad to see the mid-week potential is still there. If we can't get the storm, my second wish would be that the latest Canadian model run verify...15-17" in NC and SC?! Parts of Louisiana get 6"?! Would like to see some video of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm proud of this board...in years past, the 84 hour NAM would have blown this thread up. Anyway, back to reality....I'm with Bob Chill...there's still some hope for midweek, but I need to see something...anything by Monday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS op absolutely hates this storm. Or non storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm proud of this board...in years past, the 84 hour NAM would have blown this thread up. Anyway, back to reality....I'm with Bob Chill...there's still some hope for midweek, but I need to see something...anything by Monday at least. Well, this morning's GFS wasn't what you were looking for....it really has a bad look for the wed non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well, this morning's GFS wasn't what you were looking for....it really has a bad look for the wed non event. Yeah, GFS wants no part of it. The NAM/SREF are world's apart from the GFS. NAM/SREF also have no other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm starting to wish I had gone with normal or even above normal for the 1st week of Feb instead of normal to slightly below. Last night's operational Euro was really warm which fit some of the analogs from yesterday while others were cold. The ens mean temps on day 9 and 10 are quite a big colder than the Euro operational which is an outlier but the pattern does favor lows going to our north more than to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm starting to wish I had gone with normal or even above normal for the 1st week of Feb instead of normal to slightly below. Last night's operational Euro was really warm which fit some of the analogs from yesterday while others were cold. The ens mean temps on day 9 and 10 are quite a big colder than the Euro operational which is an outlier but the pattern does favor lows going to our north more than to our south. It's a tough call either way. A warm spell was all but guaranteed first 10 days of the month. Current progs bring it quicker now. I'm not sure the clues were strong enough when you wrote the article. It can easily get pushed back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice overrunning look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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