psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The op gfs run doesn't bother me as much as the dramatic northward trend on the gefs last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the GFS and GGEM are horrible tonight for next weekend...im sure Euro will be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The op gfs run doesn't bother me as much as the dramatic northward trend on the gefs last 2 runs. P001 snow accumulated depth at 156 was kinda funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the GFS and GGEM are horrible tonight for next weekend...im sure Euro will be worse After looking at next weekend on tonight's Euro, I'm thinking I'm going to puke. It's literally a horrifically abysmal train wrech. And that's an understatement. We go from PV extending hudson bay to carolinas, to no trace of cold air in north america - in the span of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Gfs ggem and ecmwf all warm the mid Atlantic dramatically and say rain in the 6-10 day period. I don't buy it 100% yet but it has shaken my belief in how the pattern would evolve. However both the euro ensemble and gefs bring the cold back in the 10-15 day. Perhaps we end up where we want but have to take a different route to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs showing 60 near the end of the run...this should be fun to watch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs showing 60 near the end of the run...this should be fun to watch today Not sure anyone would worry about what it was showing near 384 (well, except maybe Ji ). The problem is things go downhill quickly as soon as day 6 and don't really improve after that. No time to panic yet I guess, but it's kind of troubling as the OP GFS isn't alone in depicting this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not sure anyone would worry about what it was showing near 384 (well, except maybe Ji ). The problem is things go downhill quickly as soon as day 6 and don't really improve after that. No time to panic yet I guess, but it's kind of troubling as the OP GFS isn't alone in depicting this scenario. There has been plenty of discussion about a relaxation of the cold in early February it looks like the models may be picking up on that now. But we have also seen that most of the modeled warm ups have fallen short so we may have that plus models tend to break down a pattern too fast or rush one in too fast so we will see. My post is more about the who and you nailed that fast....hold on tight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Regardless winter could end today and it's a win To me. Colder and snowier then last winter by a long shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm Need some blocking dude. PNA relaxation was inevitable. PV wasnt going to stay displaced south indefinitely, and that kinda sucks for snow anyway unless you love clippers. Hopefully the warm/wet ends up only lasting a few days. That has been the pattern this winter when we do warm.. I am ready for a -AO -NAO pattern. Get the PV back up north and weaker, and lets build some heights over Greenland. Not easy to get a big snow event any other way around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Rain is inevitable. Didn't think it would come as quick as what the recent runs are showing. Could be rushing it or could be right. Good bit of spread in the medium range. EPS showing a -ao/nao combo in early Feb with a lot of spread. I don't think d7+ is resolved at all so I'm not worried. Whatever happens happens. One thing is looking likely. It's going to be wet in early Feb. The ma always rides the line when there's chances. So we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs ensemble mean looks interesting for midweek storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nam looks way different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just checked EPS 850's. Looks like we lose the 0 line from sun or Mon through wed and then solid after that through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nam looks way different It seriously does. I am intrigued by it. But again it is nam at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs ensemble mean looks interesting for midweek storm Care to elaborate??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nam looks way different Mid week is still in play. Globals should finally start to agree on "something" by the end of the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 0.1 line through all of VA, 0.25 through central VA, makes me think it's still possible to get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gefs members only shows 2 hits for midweek. Both look sweet but the vast majority are misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Day 7-10 on GFS & EURO are both showing a SE RIDGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Day 7-10 on GFS & EURO are both showing a SE RIDGE In the summer that is heat , what is it for winter? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In the summer that is heat , what is it for winter? Sent from my iPhone same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In the summer that is heat , what is it for winter? Sent from my iPhone same That's what I thought... Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Mid week is still in play. Globals should finally start to agree on "something" by the end of the weekend SREFs agree! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM at 36 looks like it is 3 hours later in time than at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Gfs ggem and ecmwf all warm the mid Atlantic dramatically and say rain in the 6-10 day period. I don't buy it 100% yet but it has shaken my belief in how the pattern would evolve. However both the euro ensemble and gefs bring the cold back in the 10-15 day. Perhaps we end up where we want but have to take a different route to get there. I recall Matt mentioning to Wes the other day how surprisingly half of the supercomputer analogs showed dates that were followed by warm ups....I guess it was onto something (with the caveat that it hasn't happened yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 SREFs agree! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Movin on up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm not sure I'm ready to buy in to any period of extended warmth. Seasonal trends would say that isn't going to happen. A 2-3 day thaw with a return to cold on the other end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I recall Matt mentioning to Wes the other day how surprisingly half of the supercomputer analogs showed dates that were followed by warm ups....I guess it was onto something (with the caveat that it hasn't happened yet)Yea in the last 3 days the analogs went from pretty good to awful. Yesterday's none were particularly good for snow and most weren't even that cold anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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