yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 OMG 00z NAM h5 at 84!!!! Well not really, but looks like a decent s/w coming into E ID Only slight diff on h5 at 84 on 00z GFS... only 200 miles E in extreme E MT/NE WY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wanna strangle the GFS. I have solace in the fact that it won't look like that in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wanna strangle the GFSIt's a disaster. There is no other word to soften the blow. Not saying it's correct but if it verifies we are back to where we came from.Superbowl looks warm/wet so we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the GFS became more accurate it suddenly became much less fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Disastrous within 192 hrs, heavy rain to blizzard on d11. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the GFS became more accurate it suddenly became much less fun. But really, is it that more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm Logic and past history would argue a more frozen scenario with departing arctic air. A bit quick in the rain scenario on the gfs and euro at d 9-10. Skill is bad at that range as well. However, I do think we get some rain during the first 7 days of Feb. Panic button should gather dust for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Logic and past history would argue a more frozen scenario with departing arctic air. A bit quick in the rain scenario on the gfs and euro at d 9-10. Skill is bad at that range as well. However, I do think we get some rain during the first 7 days of Feb. Panic button should gather dust for the time being. So you think there's still a chance for some early Feb. snow? By the way, are models still saying that Winter is over by Presidents Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So you think there's still a chance for some early Feb. snow? By the way, are models still saying that Winter is over by Presidents Day? Yes there is a very good chance for multiple events in early Feb. Maybe not all snow events but plenty chances. Just relax. Let's get through the Superbowl before we worry when winter ends. Eventually this pattern has to break down because the cold is too extreme and when it does it may be all over and reverse long term but before that happens you will almost certainly see more measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 So you think there's still a chance for some early Feb. snow? By the way, are models still saying that Winter is over by Presidents Day? The whole month is in play. Model skill beyond 5 days is suspect. Presidents day isn't even on the radar. Broader brush teleconnecton guidance looks totally fine We've had consistant cold periods all season and already have more snow than the last 2 winters combined in most places. There is no reason to remotely consider winter cancel until we are over a week into it. Next relaxation will likely bring some rain. We get 10" of rain on average per winter so that's normal. Ensemble guidance has the entire conus below normal in less than 2 week with an active storm track. There are never any guarantees but I can say with confidence we will get more accum snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The fact that it's looking like the beaches of NC might equal our 3 year snow total by the end of next week is just a tad bit discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The whole month is in play. Model skill beyond 5 days is suspect. Presidents day isn't even on the radar. Broader brush teleconnecton guidance looks totally fine We've had consistant cold periods all season and already have more snow than the last 2 winters combined in most places. There is no reason to remotely consider winter cancel until we are over a week into it. Next relaxation will likely bring some rain. We get 10" of rain on average per winter so that's normal. Ensemble guidance has the entire conus below normal in less than 2 week with an active storm track. There are never any guarantees but I can say with confidence we will get more accum snow this year. After next week's cold blasts we could really use some form of a block as things get active. As you know the first three weeks of Feb. is the most ideal time for some semblance of a -nao. We can reach full potential from blocking during this time as it's better in late winter as opposed to any other time. Things have gone pretty well so far without blocking so even if a true -nao does not develop some good things can still happen. There's been some suggesting that a gradient pattern sets up and that might work also if we get some nice highs to show up and create a solid CAD situation. At least we could get something decent on the front end even if the lows go west or north. I also wouldn't be surprised to see one more crazy cold wave hit us in early to mid Feb. after a short relaxation, but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The op gfs run doesn't bother me as much as the dramatic northward trend on the gefs last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the GFS and GGEM are horrible tonight for next weekend...im sure Euro will be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The op gfs run doesn't bother me as much as the dramatic northward trend on the gefs last 2 runs. P001 snow accumulated depth at 156 was kinda funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the GFS and GGEM are horrible tonight for next weekend...im sure Euro will be worse After looking at next weekend on tonight's Euro, I'm thinking I'm going to puke. It's literally a horrifically abysmal train wrech. And that's an understatement. We go from PV extending hudson bay to carolinas, to no trace of cold air in north america - in the span of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Gfs ggem and ecmwf all warm the mid Atlantic dramatically and say rain in the 6-10 day period. I don't buy it 100% yet but it has shaken my belief in how the pattern would evolve. However both the euro ensemble and gefs bring the cold back in the 10-15 day. Perhaps we end up where we want but have to take a different route to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs showing 60 near the end of the run...this should be fun to watch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs showing 60 near the end of the run...this should be fun to watch today Not sure anyone would worry about what it was showing near 384 (well, except maybe Ji ). The problem is things go downhill quickly as soon as day 6 and don't really improve after that. No time to panic yet I guess, but it's kind of troubling as the OP GFS isn't alone in depicting this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not sure anyone would worry about what it was showing near 384 (well, except maybe Ji ). The problem is things go downhill quickly as soon as day 6 and don't really improve after that. No time to panic yet I guess, but it's kind of troubling as the OP GFS isn't alone in depicting this scenario. There has been plenty of discussion about a relaxation of the cold in early February it looks like the models may be picking up on that now. But we have also seen that most of the modeled warm ups have fallen short so we may have that plus models tend to break down a pattern too fast or rush one in too fast so we will see. My post is more about the who and you nailed that fast....hold on tight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Regardless winter could end today and it's a win To me. Colder and snowier then last winter by a long shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm Need some blocking dude. PNA relaxation was inevitable. PV wasnt going to stay displaced south indefinitely, and that kinda sucks for snow anyway unless you love clippers. Hopefully the warm/wet ends up only lasting a few days. That has been the pattern this winter when we do warm.. I am ready for a -AO -NAO pattern. Get the PV back up north and weaker, and lets build some heights over Greenland. Not easy to get a big snow event any other way around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Rain is inevitable. Didn't think it would come as quick as what the recent runs are showing. Could be rushing it or could be right. Good bit of spread in the medium range. EPS showing a -ao/nao combo in early Feb with a lot of spread. I don't think d7+ is resolved at all so I'm not worried. Whatever happens happens. One thing is looking likely. It's going to be wet in early Feb. The ma always rides the line when there's chances. So we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs ensemble mean looks interesting for midweek storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nam looks way different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just checked EPS 850's. Looks like we lose the 0 line from sun or Mon through wed and then solid after that through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nam looks way different It seriously does. I am intrigued by it. But again it is nam at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 6z gfs ensemble mean looks interesting for midweek storm Care to elaborate??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nam looks way different Mid week is still in play. Globals should finally start to agree on "something" by the end of the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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