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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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0z euro has the heartbreaker* looking more healthy than it has looked....

 

 

*This is what I am calling the 1/22 event because the models are going to suck us in on this one and then Lucy will pull the football away

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0z euro has the heartbreaker* looking more healthy than it has looked....

*This is what I am calling the 1/22 event because the models are going to suck us in on this one and then Lucy will pull the football away

6z gefs and 0z euro members pretty bearish for now. We'll have to get through the ns vortdust attack first and see how timing comes together.

Very impressive gefs solutions beyond as the ridge retros and trough widens. Gulf opens first as ns vorts drop in further west than the period were in now and then Pac moisture streams into the sw down the line. . Every member shows some wet storms along the gulf and southern plains.

Seems there is a chance that Ji gets his non-ku 6-12. I guess we've waited 3 years so another couple of weeks is no biggie. If we get blanked I'm driving to the French quarter and finding that bastard.

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6z GFS was best run Ive seen for a while. Looked like a colder version of early December with vorts coming up on top of the ridge and plunging into the desert southwest. This time without a SE ridge. Terrible Atlantic though lol

 

gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht_s.gif

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Yeah don't expect a classic NAO block to form until that ridiculous pv dies. What we should look for in late Jan is the top of the western ridge to break off into the west NAO regions. That would take the car topper to an actual snowstorm for you guys.

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6z GFS was best run Ive seen for a while. Looked like a colder version of early December with vorts coming up on top of the ridge and plunging into the desert southwest. This time without a SE ridge. Terrible Atlantic though lol

 

 

That's a big NC/VA storm

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But you can see why that period is more threatening than the next week or so. Ultimately, the retrograding will lead to warmth Feb 5-10 maybe? ?

yea...i was thinking about that....but maybe Feb 10-15 is where we can start to finally develop a block

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Yeah don't expect a classic NAO block to form until that ridiculous pv dies. What we should look for in late Jan is the top of the western ridge to break off into the west NAO regions. That would take the car topper to an actual snowstorm for you guys.

Any thoughts on the warming event(s) the models have been showing at 10-30 mb? Is it going to be a real SSW event, one that can have an impact on the PV and be a catalyst for a -NAO in early Feb?

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But you can see why that period is more threatening than the next week or so. Ultimately, the retrograding will lead to warmth Feb 5-10 maybe? ?

The variability inside of 2 week windows has been ongoing since Nov. I personally expect a warm-up for a time once the current progged pattern relaxed. Warm spells have been short lived all season so we have that in our favor. If we didn't break records in Dec then the month would have looked cooler than it does on paper.

A non-transient block would go a long.way to helping Feb but the elusiveness door to door so far doesn't give me much confidence.

ETA:

I really appreciate you stopping in here from time to time. It really helps me to better understand what kind of clues to look for going beyond ensemble range. Unfortunately a good portion of trop forcing and things like that are over my head and will be for probably the rest of my life. lol.

Do you think odds favor a more classic blocking regime in Feb or is it totally up in the air?

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The variability inside of 2 week windows has been ongoing since Nov. I personally expect a warm-up for a time once the current progged pattern relaxed. Warm spells have been short lived all season so we have that in our favor. If we didn't break records in Dec then the month would have looked cooler than it does on paper.

A non-transient block would go a long.way to helping Feb but the elusiveness door to door so far doesn't give me much confidence.

ETA:

I really appreciate you stopping in here from time to time. It really helps me to better understand what kind of clues to look for going beyond ensemble range. Unfortunately a good portion of trop forcing and things like that are over my head and will be for probably the rest of my life. lol.

Do you think odds favor a more classic blocking regime in Feb or is it totally up in the air?

and you want his information for free Bob?     lol

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The variability inside of 2 week windows has been ongoing since Nov. I personally expect a warm-up for a time once the current progged pattern relaxed. Warm spells have been short lived all season so we have that in our favor. If we didn't break records in Dec then the month would have looked cooler than it does on paper.

A non-transient block would go a long.way to helping Feb but the elusiveness door to door so far doesn't give me much confidence.

ETA:

I really appreciate you stopping in here from time to time. It really helps me to better understand what kind of clues to look for going beyond ensemble range. Unfortunately a good portion of trop forcing and things like that are over my head and will be for probably the rest of my life. lol.

Do you think odds favor a more classic blocking regime in Feb or is it totally up in the air?

 

its nice when HM stops by...but even nicer when we get analysis from Icez(highzenburg)

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Today's CPC D+11 analogs still really like snow but traded the snowy dates fro dry cold one.  Yesterday the analogs had two reall nice snow storms.  Today no really notable ones in the mix though a 4 inch  event showed up in 1995 just prior to the centered mean.  I still like the pattern for getting some snow before the end of the month but still don't like the atlantic which makes it hard to get a really big snow south of 40.  We can get light to moderate ones when we get lucky.  Tomorrow I'll be looking in more detail as I'll be doing an outlook.

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I think the clipper this weekend might do a little better than it looks right now. It has been consistently showing upon most models. Looks like a pretty healthy clipper until models start washing it out as it approaches but some should make it over the mountains and maybe redevelop some. I think one analog that kept popping up a couple days ago was centered around the first week of jan. 2003. and as we know that was one of our best clippers to overperform. Maybe I'm just wishful thinking though.

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I think the clipper this weekend might do a little better than it looks right now. It has been consistently showing upon most models. Looks like a pretty healthy clipper until models start washing it out as it approaches but some should make it over the mountains and maybe redevelop some. I think one analog that kept popping up a couple days ago was centered around the first week of jan. 2003. and as we know that was one of our best clippers to overperform. Maybe I'm just wishful thinking though.

 

I keep waiting for a model to show some kind of surface reflection east of the mountains. I think I found the problem on the 12z run. There is a low tracking north of the lakes and it tugs on the weak closed surface circ right as it hits the mountains. Separate the 2 and I think it goes boom east of the mountains?

 

Wes?

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I keep waiting for a model to show some kind of surface reflection east of the mountains. I think I found the problem on the 12z run. There is a low tracking north of the lakes and it tugs on the weak closed surface circ right as it hits the mountains. Separate the 2 and I think it goes boom east of the mountains?

 

Wes?

thei rmust be a permanent low in the lakes...maybe its the cousin of the PV or maybe God just hates giving us snow

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I keep waiting for a model to show some kind of surface reflection east of the mountains. I think I found the problem on the 12z run. There is a low tracking north of the lakes and it tugs on the weak closed surface circ right as it hits the mountains. Separate the 2 and I think it goes boom east of the mountains?

 

Wes?

Bob, I agree. But that's why all these vorts, imho, haven't done anything because they always had something on their heals. With the monster vortex coming down the west side of the GL, the weekend clipper which would have definitely performed, is just sucked apart by the GL vort. Although I should be numb to it by now, it's still kinda sad.

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I keep waiting for a model to show some kind of surface reflection east of the mountains. I think I found the problem on the 12z run. There is a low tracking north of the lakes and it tugs on the weak closed surface circ right as it hits the mountains. Separate the 2 and I think it goes boom east of the mountains?

 

Wes?

Bob, I think the low track north because the next northern stream system gets too close to it and the vort and low start responding to it.  It's the solution the euro had yesterday and still sort of has (I think). 

 

Ji,   Without a southern stream, systems digging southward tend to have a low end up in the great lakes unless the trough gets fat enough south to save us by bringing a surface low to our south.  We don't have any confluence to keep pressures high over the lakes or northeast.  We still can get clippers if they dig far enough south or we can get a faux southern stream by retrograding the ridge a bit to allow a little more room for systems to dig and have the tail end of some trough spit away from it.  Yesterday's D+11 liked that idea,  today's looks fairly similar but the analogs aren't so bullish on snow but are on cold. 

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