Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 the Friday signal was pretty strong a few days ago per EURO and GFS but then both lost it. Maybe it comes back. I am excited about February as we trade cold and dry for maybe a risk of warmer but stormier. I am not a fan of harsh dry winter conditions. Had it not been for the Tuesday storm, the Jan 20-Jan 31 period would of been a trolling disaster The next epo reload (and it looks huge) going into feb doesn't teleconnect with a +PNA ridge. This is a big difference for precip patterns across the conus. Basically the pac opens up but we don't flood with pac air because upper level flow is amped up from the -epo. Signs of blocking are really showing too. Euro and EPS are dead set on a -ao period. GEFS just followed suit overnight. Take a look at CPC plots. Big change from the last couple days. Even without atlantic help, waves entering the west coast can't easily cut on us. A big wrapped up storm probably would but this is all speculation. Even if something cuts we could easily score front end with a decent antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here's why I'm not giving up on Wed just yet, from Mt. Holly AFD THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT, HOWEVER. ALL OF THEMDLS DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE SERN CST AROUND WED. THEY THEN MOVETHIS LOW NEWD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM KEEP THE LOW WELL OFF THECOAST WITH NO IMPACT ON OUR WX. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS A SLIGHTLYMORE WWD TRACK AND BRINGS A GLANCING BLOW TO OUR ERN LOCATIONS ONWED. THE TREND SO FAR THIS WINTER (AS EVERYONE CAN SEE BY LOOKINGOUT THEIR WINDOWS) IS FOR A MORE WWD TRACK TO VERIFY AND GENLY FORA MORE WWD PROGRESSION WITH TIME. NOW, THE UPR AIR PATN IS A LOTMORE PROGRESSIVE THIS TIME AND WITH SUCH A LARGE HIGH TO THE W OFTHE LOW, A WWD TRACK MAY NOT HAPPEN, BUT SOMETIMES A PERSISTENCEFCST ENDS UP BEING THE BEST FCST. SO, WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPSIN OUR ERN AREAS, AND KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE. OF COURSE, THEECMWF IS OFTEN ONE OF THE BETTER MDLS AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Leesburg has about 13 inches so far in January with and will end up with a well below normal winter month with temps. Easily our best winter month since 09-10. This might be one of those rare winters where we get above normal snowfall but not historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 12Z NAM 48HR not looking that bad for around these parts. Westminster cashes in once again. Shocker. ;-) So we don't like cartoppers anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 When was the last time only the Eastern Shore saw snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 When was the last time only the Eastern Shore saw snow? Boxing day 2010? They got hammered that day, no? While it was pretty much a whiff other than non-accumlating white rain on the west side of the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 If Berk is in: Support for Saturday Snow:Here is the Hi-Resolution NAM Model showing the snowfall outlook tomorrow. This has done a decent job lately, so I endorse it. Below is my take for our region. To see more on the next week and impact on the ski areas, please see my article in OpenSnow. This is a great time to sign up for the suite of Powder Finder, snow models, and slope camshttps://opensnow.com/dailysnow/post/2042Metro Baltimore/southern PA:*Arrival: 9 AM to 11 AM in central Maryland/southern PA*Ending: Saturday Evening.*How Much? General 1-2 inches near and north of Laurel/Glen Burnie. The cold air/fluff factor could bring a few spots north close to 3", especially north of Baltimore.South into AA County, southern MD, Eastern Shore Easton/Camgridge/Delaware: A dusting to 1 inch at best.Sunday Night/Monday: I will continue to say that I think it will pass too far north into NY State to be an impact for us. So I have not and will not bite on the hype. But some will get clipped west of Frederick and central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not gonna give up on Wed-Thursday...GFS tip toeing back in the right direction...still a swing and a miss though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not gonna give up on Wed-Thursday...GFS tip toeing back in the right direction...still a swing and a miss though That's good you aren't giving up on an event that is almost a week away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here's why I'm not giving up on Wed just yet, from Mt. Holly AFD THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT, HOWEVER. ALL OF THE MDLS DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE SERN CST AROUND WED. THEY THEN MOVE THIS LOW NEWD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM KEEP THE LOW WELL OFF THE COAST WITH NO IMPACT ON OUR WX. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE WWD TRACK AND BRINGS A GLANCING BLOW TO OUR ERN LOCATIONS ON WED. THE TREND SO FAR THIS WINTER (AS EVERYONE CAN SEE BY LOOKING OUT THEIR WINDOWS) IS FOR A MORE WWD TRACK TO VERIFY AND GENLY FOR A MORE WWD PROGRESSION WITH TIME. NOW, THE UPR AIR PATN IS A LOT MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS TIME AND WITH SUCH A LARGE HIGH TO THE W OF THE LOW, A WWD TRACK MAY NOT HAPPEN, BUT SOMETIMES A PERSISTENCE FCST ENDS UP BEING THE BEST FCST. SO, WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS IN OUR ERN AREAS, AND KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE. OF COURSE, THE ECMWF IS OFTEN ONE OF THE BETTER MDLS AS WELL. another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... We call those people QPF Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not punting, but still a healthy skepticism that IF the next cold air comes in as modeled that there will be room to allow the Wend/Thus thing to amplify and get to our area. The cold air push is much less than six days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not punting, but still a healthy skepticism that IF the next cold air comes in as modeled that there will be room to allow the Wend/Thus thing to amplify and get to our area. The cold air push is much less than six days away... Unless you get a phase, which is still on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Unless you get a phase, which is still on the table at this point. I think you guys down there should def be keenly interested, you don't need as much help as we do. I will certainly keep watching for it for my area, even though I doubt it at this point. I have also learned to distrust "needing a phase" to get a storm up this way. Even if one occurs, it is often too late for us in this part of the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... http://postimg.org/image/a537m7zyn/ Check out the pretty dramatic differences that have taken place just since last night at 18Z and today at 12Z on the GFS. 5 or 6 days out, we could end up seeing a significantly different (for better OR for worse) evolution than we are seeing now. No need to either give up or be optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... especially when we have snow-producing cold air available (which is not easy to have around here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://postimg.org/image/a537m7zyn/ Check out the pretty dramatic differences that have taken place just since last night at 18Z and today at 12Z on the GFS. 5 or 6 days out, we could end up seeing a significantly different (for better OR for worse) evolution than we are seeing now. No need to either give up or be optimistic at this point. I agree, 6 days out is wayyy too far to give up or get excited, im just hoping a nw trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That's good you aren't giving up on an event that is almost a week away.. It's good you're in a good form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... Missing the point/context entirely. Most of it is tongue in cheek....in/out, etc. Some is cheerleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's good you're in a good form. I am punting February 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I saw this and had to post it... to all the people who believe in the global warming crap here ya go...... lol haha lol lol i don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I have to say, your cartoon has really made me rethink all of the overwhelming scientific data that says global warming is taking place. Because if still gets cold anywhere ever, global warming is FALSE, amirite? Derp! or the 1,000+ day streak of not seeing more than 2" of snow, which by the way, we didn't shatter by any means (thanks to the band that came through towards the end of Monday's storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Gfs wants to do a high QPF event next weekend into first week of feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 There's a whole sub forum dedicated to climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am punting February 5th. I'm in. But Feb 15 is looking doubtful. Probably out for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 everyone has opinions, but global sea ice is increasing, and look at the 1930s, considered the hottest decade, those records still hold, but no one says global warning about the 30s, were actually cooling Yes...cooling. http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/images/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Bob is right, though, we're off topic - so I'll let this one go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yes...cooling. http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/images/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Bob is right, though, we're off topic - so I'll let this one go. yeah ill let it go too, but I meant cooling trend over last few years, but ur right time to get back on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Global warming talks never go well. Neither do politics and religion. If you want to draw a line in the sand that differing views will never cross to the other side...ever...those are the big 3. Let's stick to snow and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Gfs wants to do a high QPF event next weekend into first week of feb It's been there, in fact multiple events, off and on for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's been there, in fact multiple events, off and on for a while... yes i know..its been persistent but the last 2 runs have been pretty eye opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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