CAPE Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Worst run of the gfs this winter. Sucks all the way to crayola crayon truncation If Ji had made this post it would be a sure bet we see at least 2 moderate events the next week or so. You wrecked the Karma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Worst run of the gfs this winter. Sucks all the way to crayola crayon truncation I thought the 6z gfs looked fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Canadian now joins the guidance showing a low close to the coast and throwing back some moisture close to the region. Even 6zGFS is closer. We will see. Hopefully it trends west and north, but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I thought the 6z gfs looked fantastic I agree. If you are rooting for a chance of snow in Jacksonvllle from a supressed system, great run. That was so suppressed, people in Charleston SC need a north trend. So cold. So dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 looks like the Euro and Canadian pushed late Tues/Wed storm a day later and it's still close I can't give you the Euro here but here's the Canadian; WUunderground maps have the Euro which looks similar to Canadian http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg EDIT: maybe not 24 hours later but at least 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I agree. If you are rooting for a chance of snow in Jacksonvllle from a supressed system, great run. That was so suppressed, people in Charleston SC need a north trend. So cold. So dry. you sure about that? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. well, the end of the run shows a lot of snow with light stuff the first 7 days for us, that ain't bad in my opinion and not dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 well, the end of the run shows a lot of snow with light stuff the first 7 days for us, that ain't bad in my opinion and not dry I should have clarified, in saying dry, I was referring to the first storm window for next week we were all talking about. There is moisture beyond "truncation", but I have gotten tired of chasing moisture days 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I should have clarified, in saying dry, I was referring to the first storm window for next week we were all talking about. There is moisture beyond "truncation", but I have gotten tired of chasing moisture days 11-15. I don't blame you but that period has been advertised as being a good period so keep the faith.....it's coming <cue Jaws music> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't blame you but that period has been advertised as being a good period so keep the faith.....it's coming <cue Jaws music> Hope so. I also freely admit to falling on the Ji side of the ledger when it comes to stalking big storms and potential big snows. Glad for the inch we might get tomorrow, but i tend to read models looking for big storms. If the cold is as strong as modeled next week mid-week, we are not going to see snow mid-week. Enough model runs now that seems to be the likely outcome for that snow chance. At some point the deep cold will relax, and we have to hope we maybe get a storm chance then (and hope it doesn't relax so much we warm to rain while it snows to our west in an apps runner or something like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Feb 2 - 6 look spectacular on the 6z gfs....that's where my money is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. GFS southern stream suppression. I'd look at the Euro for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS southern stream suppression. I'd look at the Euro for this event Thought the Euro went the wrong way as well for mid-week? Don't get me wrong, I will root for it, but I am not seeing a lot of reason to think that's a storm for us with the cold coming in as strong as it is modeled to be. ETA: Just noticed your location, maybe you all up there can catch a hook back in to the coast up your way, but down here I have seen enough "wide rights" to be aware of that likelihood with this much cold air in-bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Thought the Euro went the wrong way as well for mid-week? Don't get me wrong, I will root for it, but I am not seeing a lot of reason to think that's a storm for us with the cold coming in as strong as it is modeled to be. ETA: Just noticed your location, maybe you all up there can catch a hook back in to the coast up your way, but down here I have seen enough "wide rights" to be aware of that likelihood with this much cold air in-bound. I think he's talking about the 7+ day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think he's talking about the 7+ day period OK, maybe (he did say "for this event" which seems specific to next week). Hard to tell. I fully agree that in fantasy-land there looks to be chances. In the mid-range, I am not seeing good signs for the middle of next week (for us/my backyard --- I am sure the folks in GA/SC/NC are very interested in the model battle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro ensembles still show some support for Wed but it did back off from 12z yesterday. GFS/GEFS really want none of it. We'll probably be on the outside looking in. It's now interesting on the Friday'ish timeframe. EPS (I'm going to start using this acronym or euro ensembles. It's easier) and GEFS now show the possibility of a second coastal / wave affecting the area. Weak signal but it's there. Fast flow and pieces zipping along will keep us interested even though it looks like a whiff for Wed. Down the line looks fun but we start riding the frozen vs wet boundary. Looks like lots of moisture riding the boundary. I'm in. d11-15 on EPS and GEFS look great on the means. EPS has lost above normal almost completely. One day near average and then cold comes back in. Same with GEFS. All systems go it appears into early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I admit the Wed-Fri period isn't looking pretty on NWP but still obviously needs watching. Someone brought up March 1980 and there are actually some similarities there with the PV etc. It's worth checking out the upper-air maps if you get a chance. There is no denying Feb's potential. Everyone and their mothers can see the writing on the wall there. Just like in December, a -EPO, SE ridge moisture train with plenty of cold air available, ala 93-94. So, yeah, that period will become interesting as we get closer and hone in on each individual pulse of moisture (perhaps more..?) streaming in. But next week had that phasing potential for a significant cyclone. Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro ensembles still show some support for Wed but it did back off from 12z yesterday. GFS/GEFS really want none of it. We'll probably be on the outside looking in. It's now interesting on the Friday'ish timeframe. EPS (I'm going to start using this acronym or euro ensembles. It's easier) and GEFS now show the possibility of a second coastal / wave affecting the area. Weak signal but it's there. Fast flow and pieces zipping along will keep us interested even though it looks like a whiff for Wed. Down the line looks fun but we start riding the frozen vs wet boundary. Looks like lots of moisture riding the boundary. I'm in. d11-15 on EPS and GEFS look great on the means. EPS has lost above normal almost completely. One day near average and then cold comes back in. Same with GEFS. All systems go it appears into early Feb. The 6z GFS broke off the EPO block into the west -NAO regions, again, around Feb 5th or so and that's when it sends in a big storm in fantasy land. Looks like our climo peak in snow won't let us down this year, given the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 6z GFS broke off the EPO block into the west -NAO regions, again, around Feb 5th or so and that's when it sends in a big storm in fantasy land. Looks like our climo peak in snow won't let us down this year, given the teleconnections.Another part of the look that the ensembles and ops are advertising the first week is a much broader conus trough with pac moitsure streaming across. Flow isn't nearly as amplified and that may work out in these parts. I'm not sure the met term but longitudinal boundary is what my mind call it. Height don't relax enough for us to easily be on the warm side. Moisture streaming and pressing up against the cold air to the N looks like overrunning galore on some members. Hard to say at MA latitudes if we stay on the right side all the time but odds would favor at least some of the precip chances working out from what I'm seeing. Also keep seeing mixy/icy solutions in the members. That's fine with me. Better than warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Another part of the look that the ensembles and ops are advertising the first week is a much broader conus trough with pac moitsure streaming across. Flow isn't nearly as amplified and that may work out in these parts. I'm not sure the met term but longitudinal boundary is what my mind call it. Height don't relax enough for us to easily be on the warm side. Moisture streaming and pressing up against the cold air to the N looks like overrunning galore on some members. Hard to say at MA latitudes if we stay on the right side all the time but odds would favor at least some of the precip chances working out from what I'm seeing. Also keep seeing mixy/icy solutions in the members. That's fine with me. Better than warm rain. Sounds a lot like Feb 1994 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think he's talking about the 7+ day period I think these pattern threads could perhaps benefit from a brief "reset" post every few days--what time frames are the pattern watchers watching, with what sense of what exactly they've been seeing and expect to see on those time frames. Nothing big, just something to help the people who kind of dip in and out and might not always be on top of the current calendar of events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 By or on Superbowl Sunday, we will be tracking a medium range monster. Way to go out on a limb. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 if this weather pattern was porn, this thread would be NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm not ready to give up on the Wednesday threat just yet. Saturday night if the Euro hasn't gone back at all to its 12z solution from yesterday I'll toss in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 if this weather pattern was porn, this thread would be NSFW It's pretty sick. Not perfect but sick nonetheless. I'm sure we'll get rained on at some point but it will only help cement the 1' pack into a glacier that lasts until march. LOL I'm not writing off next week either. Lots of pieces rounding the pv. I like the friday signal a little bit. GEFS had a couple nice hits that weren't there before. Wouldn't be big or anything if it happens but fun regardless. Then the overunning show begins superbowl weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's pretty sick. Not perfect but sick nonetheless. I'm sure we'll get rained on at some point but it will only help cement the 1' pack into a glacier that lasts until march. LOL I'm not writing off next week either. Lots of pieces rounding the pv. I like the friday signal a little bit. GEFS had a couple nice hits that weren't there before. Wouldn't be big or anything if it happens but fun regardless. Then the overunning show begins superbowl weekend. the Friday signal was pretty strong a few days ago per EURO and GFS but then both lost it. Maybe it comes back. I am excited about February as we trade cold and dry for maybe a risk of warmer but stormier. I am not a fan of harsh dry winter conditions. Had it not been for the Tuesday storm, the Jan 20-Jan 31 period would of been a trolling disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's pretty sick. Not perfect but sick nonetheless. I'm sure we'll get rained on at some point but it will only help cement the 1' pack into a glacier that lasts until march. LOL I'm not writing off next week either. Lots of pieces rounding the pv. I like the friday signal a little bit. GEFS had a couple nice hits that weren't there before. Wouldn't be big or anything if it happens but fun regardless. Then the overunning show begins superbowl weekend. the CFS2 is not backing down on the well below normal FEB temps and well above normal precip some will scoff, but the fact is we are now seeing that pattern show up on the medium range models and it has held firm with its FEB forecast for almost two weeks straight we'll find out soon enough, of course, since we're only 8 days away from FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 the Friday signal was pretty strong a few days ago per EURO and GFS but then both lost it. Maybe it comes back. I am excited about February as we trade cold and dry for maybe a risk of warmer but stormier. I am not a fan of harsh dry winter conditions. Had it not been for the Tuesday storm, the Jan 20-Jan 31 period would of been a trolling disaster as opposed to usual trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 WSI forecast from now until the beginning of MAR...enjoy! http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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