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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Totally agree with you on that. I'm still quite amazed by how little time we had actually tracking the storm before it came.

As others have said, those are the best kind, boom or bust. Bob and a select few including myself watched from a bit further out, but most caught on inside 3 days. I love next Wednesday's threat right now. And think for the average model watcher, not laser weenie like Bob, the Wednesday event could have similar offerings.

Definitely better than a 10 day devastator, 12/26/10 was tear jerking.

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     The only snow event of consequence where BWI/DCA received a moderate or better event along with places like SBY and Norfolk I can recall was the 3/1/80 storm which crushed SE VA and eastern NC about as much as Duke crushed by hopes that night when they beat MD by 1 pt in the ACC tournament (and, of course, MD had several chances to win at the end.)

     I think BWI received around 5" and DCA was probably closer to 7" (I'm sure Wes has a better memory of it in light of my double emotional devastation that night!) Elizabeth City, NC was near 2' and Norfolk was probably closer to 18".

     I would also note that 79/80 was a neutral ENSO with below temps DEC, FEB & MAR at BWI.

 

Don't forget about the Blizzard of 96.  That crushed just about everyone and everything along a line from Charlotte to Greenville, NC and northward, including Salisbury (MD), Norfolk, etc.  Obviously, it was a bigger hit for DCA and BWI, but it was still a solid warning criteria event for all.

 

Blizzard_of_1996_Jan7b-96.jpg

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I don't see any similarity with what just happened. This thing is much more suppressed to the south and east IMO

Still a long way to go however I tend to agree with you. The last kinda blew up and coincided along with the arctic intrusion. This one looks a lot harder to time with the new arctic air mass that comes in on Mon. night and Tues. By late Tues. and early Wed. morning the air mass is deeply entrenched so it seems OTS or offshore development is more likely but who knows. Still always hope for the best and know drastic changes can happen in a short period.

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At least we get dumped on after the superbowl. Too bad its rain

As long as it's mostly clear with temps dropping through the 20s and light winds for the Super Bowl. Because that's my 10 Day SuperCast

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Not too optimistic for the Wed-Thu chances but we do have time for things to change. With huge area of arctic HP to our west and the broad look to the trough, hard to imagine getting a storm close enough to the coast to have any affect on our weather. Euro was the only model really showing anything and now it looks at best a glancing blow for immediate coast. Model mayhem and NW trends commence by Sunday..

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looks like the Euro and Canadian pushed late Tues/Wed storm a day later and it's still close

I can't give you the Euro here but here's the Canadian; WUunderground maps have the Euro which looks similar to Canadian

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

 

EDIT: maybe not 24 hours later but at least 12 hrs

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Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. 

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Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. 

well, the end of the run shows a lot of snow with light stuff the first 7 days

for us, that ain't bad in my opinion and not dry

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well, the end of the run shows a lot of snow with light stuff the first 7 days

for us, that ain't bad in my opinion and not dry

 

I should have clarified, in saying dry, I was referring to the first storm window for next week we were all talking about. There is moisture beyond "truncation", but I have gotten tired of chasing moisture days 11-15.

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