jums300 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 84 hours before the last event the models barely had a storm, this setup is as good or even better as the last storm. Totally agree with you on that. I'm still quite amazed by how little time we had actually tracking the storm before it came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Totally agree with you on that. I'm still quite amazed by how little time we had actually tracking the storm before it came.As others have said, those are the best kind, boom or bust. Bob and a select few including myself watched from a bit further out, but most caught on inside 3 days. I love next Wednesday's threat right now. And think for the average model watcher, not laser weenie like Bob, the Wednesday event could have similar offerings. Definitely better than a 10 day devastator, 12/26/10 was tear jerking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS @ 72 hours is already shooting the energy associated with the eventual mid week system farther West, could be interesting this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The only snow event of consequence where BWI/DCA received a moderate or better event along with places like SBY and Norfolk I can recall was the 3/1/80 storm which crushed SE VA and eastern NC about as much as Duke crushed by hopes that night when they beat MD by 1 pt in the ACC tournament (and, of course, MD had several chances to win at the end.) I think BWI received around 5" and DCA was probably closer to 7" (I'm sure Wes has a better memory of it in light of my double emotional devastation that night!) Elizabeth City, NC was near 2' and Norfolk was probably closer to 18". I would also note that 79/80 was a neutral ENSO with below temps DEC, FEB & MAR at BWI. Don't forget about the Blizzard of 96. That crushed just about everyone and everything along a line from Charlotte to Greenville, NC and northward, including Salisbury (MD), Norfolk, etc. Obviously, it was a bigger hit for DCA and BWI, but it was still a solid warning criteria event for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS @ 72 hours is already shooting the energy associated with the eventual mid week system farther West, could be interesting this run! Nope. Took a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The only four letter word that I can come up with that's appropriate is fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Gfs wants none of it. Model war. But kinda close in now. Not thrilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see any similarity with what just happened. This thing is much more suppressed to the south and east IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 And........ its gone. It doesn't matter though. Only 1 OP run but I'm sure it will be overanalyzed 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see any similarity with what just happened. This thing is much more suppressed to the south and east IMO plenty of time this was the 120 hr. forecast from the GFS on 2/1/10 so expect it to change between now and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The model of choice for the Wednesday/Thursday store will be the Euro. The GFS will be up to its usual tricks and won't latch on until Saturday or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anyone staying up for 6z happy hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see any similarity with what just happened. This thing is much more suppressed to the south and east IMO Still a long way to go however I tend to agree with you. The last kinda blew up and coincided along with the arctic intrusion. This one looks a lot harder to time with the new arctic air mass that comes in on Mon. night and Tues. By late Tues. and early Wed. morning the air mass is deeply entrenched so it seems OTS or offshore development is more likely but who knows. Still always hope for the best and know drastic changes can happen in a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anyone staying up for 6z happy hour? at my age, I can't even make it for 6pm happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't see any similarity with what just happened. This thing is much more suppressed to the south and east IMO North trends only happen when they screw us -Ji last Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Worst run of the gfs this winter. Sucks all the way to crayola crayon truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Worst run of the gfs this winter. Sucks all the way to crayola crayon truncation Ji you hijacked Chill's account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 At least we get dumped on after the superbowl. Too bad its rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Storm that did hit had cold air source from low pressure way to north/ne. This is high pressure cold and better chance to be suppressive. These are lot of fun to watch; waiting on is high too strong or just right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 At least we get dumped on after the superbowl. Too bad its rain As long as it's mostly clear with temps dropping through the 20s and light winds for the Super Bowl. Because that's my 10 Day SuperCast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not too optimistic for the Wed-Thu chances but we do have time for things to change. With huge area of arctic HP to our west and the broad look to the trough, hard to imagine getting a storm close enough to the coast to have any affect on our weather. Euro was the only model really showing anything and now it looks at best a glancing blow for immediate coast. Model mayhem and NW trends commence by Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Worst run of the gfs this winter. Sucks all the way to crayola crayon truncation If Ji had made this post it would be a sure bet we see at least 2 moderate events the next week or so. You wrecked the Karma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Worst run of the gfs this winter. Sucks all the way to crayola crayon truncation I thought the 6z gfs looked fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Canadian now joins the guidance showing a low close to the coast and throwing back some moisture close to the region. Even 6zGFS is closer. We will see. Hopefully it trends west and north, but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I thought the 6z gfs looked fantastic I agree. If you are rooting for a chance of snow in Jacksonvllle from a supressed system, great run. That was so suppressed, people in Charleston SC need a north trend. So cold. So dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 looks like the Euro and Canadian pushed late Tues/Wed storm a day later and it's still close I can't give you the Euro here but here's the Canadian; WUunderground maps have the Euro which looks similar to Canadian http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg EDIT: maybe not 24 hours later but at least 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I agree. If you are rooting for a chance of snow in Jacksonvllle from a supressed system, great run. That was so suppressed, people in Charleston SC need a north trend. So cold. So dry. you sure about that? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. well, the end of the run shows a lot of snow with light stuff the first 7 days for us, that ain't bad in my opinion and not dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 well, the end of the run shows a lot of snow with light stuff the first 7 days for us, that ain't bad in my opinion and not dry I should have clarified, in saying dry, I was referring to the first storm window for next week we were all talking about. There is moisture beyond "truncation", but I have gotten tired of chasing moisture days 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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