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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Wow, euro ind members are starting to really like next wed-thurs. Half the members show accum snow @ dca. 13 @ 2+" and looks like 8 or so are 5". Biggest hit is 10" from what I'm seeing. DCA is close to 2" on the means. Big jump from last night. 

 

ETA for snowdude:

 

SBY has 16 members @ 6"+

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Are the EPS related to the EURO?

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 25m

Even more amazing, half of EPS ensembles go for major 6-12'' snowfall along Atlantic coast from Georgia into Carolinas

 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 28m

Wow, the snowfall forecasts for Gulf Coast including Tallahassee, Jax & Gainesville more legit -- EPS members 50/50 on > 1'' accums

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     The only snow event of consequence where BWI/DCA received a moderate or better event along with places like SBY and Norfolk I can recall was the 3/1/80 storm which crushed SE VA and eastern NC about as much as Duke crushed by hopes that night when they beat MD by 1 pt in the ACC tournament (and, of course, MD had several chances to win at the end.)

     I think BWI received around 5" and DCA was probably closer to 7" (I'm sure Wes has a better memory of it in light of my double emotional devastation that night!) Elizabeth City, NC was near 2' and Norfolk was probably closer to 18".

     I would also note that 79/80 was a neutral ENSO with below temps DEC, FEB & MAR at BWI.

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     The only snow event of consequence where BWI/DCA received a moderate or better event along with places like SBY and Norfolk I can recall was the 3/1/80 storm which crushed SE VA and eastern NC about as much as Duke crushed by hopes that night when they beat MD by 1 pt in the ACC tournament (and, of course, MD had several chances to win at the end.)

     I think BWI received around 5" and DCA was probably closer to 7" (I'm sure Wes has a better memory of it in light of my double emotional devastation that night!) Elizabeth City, NC was near 2' and Norfolk was probably closer to 18".

     I would also note that 79/80 was a neutral ENSO with below temps DEC, FEB & MAR at BWI.

That and January 1940..... 1/02 was kind of close but not really.

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 we need a time machine

Can you imagine what a repeat of 1899 would be like on this board? Temps below zero all the way down to Florida, temps in the negative teens here. The blizzard itself: >12" of snow from central SC all the way through Maine, >4" across MS, AL, GA, and SC, 2-3" across southern LA through to northern FL... 

50+ mph gusts with temps in the single digits during the peak of the blizzard in DC....

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1/25/00 gave SBY and Norfolk decent snows, right?  The snowfall map I'm looking at shows them in the 1-4" or  4-10" contours. 

I don't think SBY did very well and the coastal areas that the models are currently depicting to do well next week did not do well with it

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

the Euro map sort of peaked my interest in the chances of SE VA and eastern NC doing well along with us since there is enough cold air around next week, unlike most times

with only a few other storms mentioned, it is pretty rare, though obviously not impossible, for DCA/BWI to score well along with the beach areas of VA and NC

if it's going to happen, next week probably presents the best chances for snowfall over a wide area of the SE and the MA in a very long time

I'd like to see it happen, but odds still favor somebody getting screwed

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     The only snow event of consequence where BWI/DCA received a moderate or better event along with places like SBY and Norfolk I can recall was the 3/1/80 storm which crushed SE VA and eastern NC about as much as Duke crushed by hopes that night when they beat MD by 1 pt in the ACC tournament (and, of course, MD had several chances to win at the end.)

     I think BWI received around 5" and DCA was probably closer to 7" (I'm sure Wes has a better memory of it in light of my double emotional devastation that night!) Elizabeth City, NC was near 2' and Norfolk was probably closer to 18".

     I would also note that 79/80 was a neutral ENSO with below temps DEC, FEB & MAR at BWI.

 

 

That and January 1940..... 1/02 was kind of close but not really.

How about 1/26/87 and 2/1-2/96. Salisbury probably did good both times, not sure about Norfolk.

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The hotter the better (in summer)

Play a softball double-header in the outfield on one of those days and you might not agree! :P  Especially when the opposing team crushes damn near every pitch out there and you're running all over the place.

 

EDIT:  I will say that the cheap beer makes it a tad more bearable!

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:lmao: that is brutal. I am just a weirdo that loves extreme weather. 

 

Back to the topic though. It seems like we are ending this month the right way, coldest temps of the season and multiple threats on the table. 

 

Ha!  Yeah, it was brutal especially since our team sucked that year so they were hammering the ball everywhere!  I agree, extreme weather is very interesting, though I much prefer the snow/cold variety.

 

And yes, on topic...I'm intrigued by the last part of this month in general and the possible event next Wednesday in particular.  Interesting that the Euro (and to a lesser extent the GFS?) is giving some nod to that potentially becoming more than a Carolina-only storm.  As someone said earlier in here, when's the last time we had a storm that ran the coast?  May be nothing in the end, but...well, worth keeping an eye on I suppose.

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18z gefs shows 2 hits and some scrapes. One hit looks just like the euro. But only 2 members doesn't give much confidence. But it's a baby step from 12z.

OTOH- 18z gefs is very active down the line. Pac moisture opens up and all kinds of various looks. We're on the winning side of some solutions and losing side on others. Regardless, there's a heck of a lot of storminess across the country and lots of moisture. Superbowl sunday is going to get interesting for nyc I have a feeling.

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Cold temps yes but none of the threats look that solid to me...it will take some winter magic to pull that trough back NW to make this a good threat for most of us on Wednesday...I may eat those words though

 

84 hours before the last event the models barely had a storm, this setup is as good or even better as the last storm.

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