Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 So we've all agreed to give up on Monday's clipper? I know I have.....Wednesday's on borrowed time, but still there's a window. As always, d8-10 is great! lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range. Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 So we've all agreed to give up on Monday's clipper? I know I have.....Wednesday's on borrowed time, but still there's a window. As always, d8-10 is great! Mostly…a couple GEFS members actually bring it farther south again. Still too far north though. Wednesday definitely has my eye though. Best chance until next weekend probably unless Saturday RGEMs us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range. Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. Wednesday is very much alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range. Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. Well said. One thing that keeps happening @ d6-10 is the models go too crazy with the depth and staying power of cold air dumps. As we get closer the flow is almost always more relaxed around the perimeter. PV placement means quite a bit as well. That changes run to run. A little means a lot with this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Time for the EURO show? Curious how it trends on the Tues/Wednesday deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro say Wed is definitely in play. Precip makes it up here by 1am Wed. More details to follow. Looks like a scrape but run isn't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 WOW, EURO is very close to showing a major snowstorm mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro say Wed is definitely in play. Precip makes it up here by 1am Wed. More details to follow. Looks like a scrape but run isn't done. keep us informed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 7am wed. 1001mb se of obx. central NC and RIC weenies going ballistic. Snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range. Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. On Sunday morning the majority of folks were thinking snow showers for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 THIS IS a VERY ominous look, if we can get some separation from the ULL in SE Canada and get that shortwave to keep digging, im loving it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42522-128-21-multiple-winter-storm-threats-per-models/?p=2673057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Painfully close but a scrape. 2" snow line runs sw-ne just south of DC. Central NC and SE VA get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step. Thats the southern stream feature i was talking about. The trough is an issue right now. But its still far enough out that can change. If it can get amped up quickly maybe we are onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Man alive is the Euro close. So close for next week. Won't take much for that to become a legit storm for a lot of the seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Painfully close but a scrape. 2" snow line runs sw-ne just south of DC. Central NC and SE VA get destroyed. Plenty of time for the usual N shift where the max stripe goes over Leesburg et al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 with Monday's system showing up further north with each run, the PV is staying further north, which is why we see this on the Euro today what do you think the odds are that the models still have the PV too far SE? if history repeats itself, it's coming north folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wednesday is very much alive. Well said. One thing that keeps happening @ d6-10 is the models go too crazy with the depth and staying power of cold air dumps. As we get closer the flow is almost always more relaxed around the perimeter. PV placement means quite a bit as well. That changes run to run. A little means a lot with this flow. Euro say Wed is definitely in play. Precip makes it up here by 1am Wed. More details to follow. Looks like a scrape but run isn't done. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nobody wants the jackpot now (as in being in VA for that run). Love the trends. This could be THE ONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Plenty of time for the usual N shift where the max stripe goes over Leesburg et al Two things are certain. This will not cut to close and there will be no precip issues if we get anything. Whether we get anything is completely uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 WOW, EURO is very close to showing a major snowstorm mid next week. day6.gif oh hush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 HM do you think this is a storm that phases up big time and comes up the coast? Wednesday is very much alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Two things are certain. This will not cut to close and there will be no precip issues if we get anything. Whether we get anything is completely uncertain. I love reading this... and yes the EURO is so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That will move north. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Move the deep purples on an axis from Winchester to Westminster to Philadelphia airport and you have a believable solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Move the deep purples on an axis from Winchester to Westminster to Philadelphia airport and you have a believable solution As long as we end up in the mod to dark blue zone I am good with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Two things are certain. This will not cut to close and there will be no precip issues if we get anything. Whether we get anything is completely uncertain. Yep but the euro is starting to show the separation we need. It will be interesting to see what its ensembles do today. I'm encouraged by the GFS run and the euro. I wonder whether DT will start crowing about southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 snowfan, on 23 Jan 2014 - 1:45 PM, said:That will move north. No doubt. Move it north and west. I want to increase my entire winter total of 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Move the deep purples on an axis from Winchester to Westminster to Philadelphia airport and you have a believable solution LOL, With you and I in the dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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