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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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So we've all agreed to give up on Monday's clipper?  I know I have.....Wednesday's on borrowed time, but still there's a window.   As always, d8-10 is great!

 

lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range.  Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. 

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So we've all agreed to give up on Monday's clipper?  I know I have.....Wednesday's on borrowed time, but still there's a window.   As always, d8-10 is great!

Mostly…a couple GEFS members actually bring it farther south again.  Still too far north though.  Wednesday definitely has my eye though.  Best chance until next weekend probably unless Saturday RGEMs us.  

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lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range. Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time.

Wednesday is very much alive.

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lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range.  Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. 

 

Well said. One thing that keeps happening @ d6-10 is the models go too crazy with the depth and staying power of cold air dumps. As we get closer the flow is almost always more relaxed around the perimeter. PV placement means quite a bit as well. That changes run to run. A little means a lot with this flow. 

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lol..not saying they are likely to happen, but why would anyone rely on models in the medium range to be "in" or "out"...It is like years and years go by and we learn absolutely nothing (sometimes myself included)...we know with a fast flow and a dominant northern stream with a clipper train, the models are not going to be very good outside the short range.  Not sure what the point is in committing or not committing to events outside 72 hours...The pattern and climo are pretty important here as the models aren't too reliable with discreet events...Wednesday is day 6...how is something on day 6 on borrowed time. 

On Sunday morning the majority of folks were thinking snow showers for Tuesday. 

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Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step.

 

Thats the southern stream feature i was talking about. The trough is an issue right now. But its still far enough out that can change. If it can get amped up quickly maybe we are onto something.

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Wednesday is very much alive.

 

 

Well said. One thing that keeps happening @ d6-10 is the models go too crazy with the depth and staying power of cold air dumps. As we get closer the flow is almost always more relaxed around the perimeter. PV placement means quite a bit as well. That changes run to run. A little means a lot with this flow. 

 

 

Euro say Wed is definitely in play. Precip makes it up here by 1am Wed. More details to follow. Looks like a scrape but run isn't done. 

 

yup

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Two things are certain. This will not cut to close and there will be no precip issues if we get anything. Whether we get anything is completely uncertain. 

Yep but  the euro is starting to show the separation we need.  It will be interesting to see what its ensembles do today. I'm encouraged by the GFS run and the euro.  I wonder whether DT will start crowing about southern VA? 

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