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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Euro ensembles are muting any warmup. Looks like maybe 1 day in d11-15 would be +5-10 but the cold comes right back. Not arctic cold but below normal for almost the entire country. -EPO comes back in force and....dare I say it......-ao/nao. +height anoms across virtually all the high latitudes. Gefs similar but not as sold on a -nao.

Euro ens hint at something with the offshore coastal mid-late next week. Small swath of light precip for us so some members must be picking it up enough to show on means. Just something to watch. Also still showing the d8-10. That timeframe is becoming likely to produce "some snow".

D8-15 as a whole is a pretty wet period with a good bit of gulf moisture. Very wet down south for such long leads.

Height patterns as a whole in the lr on the gefs and euro ens would favor both pacific and gulf moisture in the conus. Feb gonna b rockin??

 

A few months ago the NFL Commissioner said he thought it would be neat if there was snow for the Superbowl.  Careful what you wish for.

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Vast majority of 6z ens members drop a tenth in the north half of maryland. All of them give my yard and DC something. Some a tenth. others notsomuch. Sucks with the low being north and strong. Prob be above freezing when it matters. No biggie. SnowTV is always enjoyable. 

But the ground temp probably won't be. 

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Verbatim might be a quick 1/2" to an inch here on Sat. Monday still intrigues me a bit. 6z GFS was hinting at a lil sumpin sumpin..

Maybe slight but that vort passes way too far to the north to be of any substance. Let's keep an eye out for next weekend. That seems to be what everyone keeps hinting at.

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Ha! Very good point. I'm not used to thinking about such things. 

 

Do you think the waa on the south side of the low could produce more than a dusting? I want to believe someone gets 1-2 but low track keeps me jaded. 

Probably not. Think dusting and you might not be disappointed.  We're still gonna downslope.  Jon Jon shouuld get raked. 

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Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step.

Agreed.  A bit closer.  Just need more separation between the northern stream vorts.  Hard to do, but not impossible.  If I lived near RIC I'd be pulling out the laser.  DT's probably gonna weenie all out.  

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It did, lots of work to do but I wouldn't completely dismiss the Tuesday/wed period. 

 

Last nights euro ensembles had 3 flush hits and a couple light events. With h5 zipping any favorable trend at this lead is a good sign. Outside chance as it stands now but many changes over the next 4 days or so for sure. Could go any direction. 

 

I hope you keep getting more into this one. I love me some optimistic Wes. Makes everything right with the subforum. 

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Last nights euro ensembles had 3 flush hits and a couple light events. With h5 zipping any favorable trend at this lead is a good sign. Outside chance as it stands now but many changes over the next 4 days or so for sure. Could go any direction. 

 

I hope you keep getting more into this one. I love me some optimistic Wes. Makes everything right with the subforum. 

I'm not optimistic. It's still a long shot but not a no shot.  The changes needed to give it more space are not so big as to be impossible plus it looks cold through the month.

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Last Night's Euro Ensemble Analogs  were somewhat encouraging

 

For the Ten 6-10 day analogs, only 3 had snow, but they were 3 solid solid events...4.5", 7.1", and 6.6"

 

The 11-15 day analogs were not as promising as the trough moves west toward the PNA region and we relax under weak ridging to our east, but there were still snow events in 4 of the analogs....and they weren't too shabby...we know a 1.3" event at DCA can be a 2-4" storm for DC metro and a 18-24" event for Westminster.  

 

1.3"

0.6"

3.9" and 1.8"

2.7"

 

Overall I am pretty encouraged about getting accumulating snow over the next 2 weeks.

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Last Night's Euro Ensemble Analogs  were somewhat encouraging

 

For the Ten 6-10 day analogs, only 3 had snow, but they were 3 solid solid events...4.5", 7.1", and 6.6"

 

The 11-15 day analogs were not as promising as the trough moves west toward the PNA region and we relax under weak ridging to our east, but there were still snow events in 4 of the analogs....and they weren't too shabby...we know a 1.3" event at DCA can be a 2-4" storm for DC metro and a 18-24" event for Westminster.  

 

1.3"

0.6"

3.9" and 1.8"

2.7"

 

Overall I am pretty encouraged about getting accumulating snow over the next 2 weeks.

But Westminster will only be expecting a dusting and sparky will be totally shocked.

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But Westminster will only be expecting a dusting and sparky will be totally shocked.

 

and "upset" that it won't be only a small sweeper...

 

I am encouraged because the trend this winter has been to mazxmize the windows of opportunity.  It would have been just as likely to get only a 1-3" event in this pattern

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GFS has 3 moderate to high QPF events in the fantasy range...2 snow/mix events and then a rainy lakes cutter with a cold air mass behind it

The Super Bowl weekend southern slider idea has been advertised on several model runs the last couple days.  This 12z run is the juiciest I've seen yet.  

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GFS has 3 moderate to high QPF events in the fantasy range...2 snow/mix events and then a rainy lakes cutter with a cold air mass behind it

 

Really starting to look like we're due for a snow-ice-rain event. GEFS has been showing plenty. Euro ensembles are showing plenty of gulf coast moisture streaming up the oh valley and east coast d11-15 but temps near normal on the means. Totally fine in my book. We do those events well anyways. 

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