BlizzardNole Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro ensembles are muting any warmup. Looks like maybe 1 day in d11-15 would be +5-10 but the cold comes right back. Not arctic cold but below normal for almost the entire country. -EPO comes back in force and....dare I say it......-ao/nao. +height anoms across virtually all the high latitudes. Gefs similar but not as sold on a -nao. Euro ens hint at something with the offshore coastal mid-late next week. Small swath of light precip for us so some members must be picking it up enough to show on means. Just something to watch. Also still showing the d8-10. That timeframe is becoming likely to produce "some snow". D8-15 as a whole is a pretty wet period with a good bit of gulf moisture. Very wet down south for such long leads. Height patterns as a whole in the lr on the gefs and euro ens would favor both pacific and gulf moisture in the conus. Feb gonna b rockin?? A few months ago the NFL Commissioner said he thought it would be neat if there was snow for the Superbowl. Careful what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Goodell is exactly right. Football was meant to be played in the elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Vast majority of 6z ens members drop a tenth in the north half of maryland. All of them give my yard and DC something. Some a tenth. others notsomuch. Sucks with the low being north and strong. Prob be above freezing when it matters. No biggie. SnowTV is always enjoyable. But the ground temp probably won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 But the ground temp probably won't be. 6Z GFS operational keeps us below freezing all day Saturday (or at least every 3hr. increment on the NCEP maps) EDIT: 850 temps are around -8 or -9C too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 seasonal forecasting is still a mystery? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2467431 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's sure light though. Probably no more than .10" and that's up in NE Maryland. Verbatim might be a quick 1/2" to an inch here on Sat. Monday still intrigues me a bit. 6z GFS was hinting at a lil sumpin sumpin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 But the ground temp probably won't be. Ha! Very good point. I'm not used to thinking about such things. Do you think the waa on the south side of the low could produce more than a dusting? I want to believe someone gets 1-2 but low track keeps me jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What's your location? LOL! Why he never answers is beyond me. Kind of annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 LOL! Why he never answers is beyond me. Kind of annoying. Because he is a lying troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Verbatim might be a quick 1/2" to an inch here on Sat. Monday still intrigues me a bit. 6z GFS was hinting at a lil sumpin sumpin.. Maybe slight but that vort passes way too far to the north to be of any substance. Let's keep an eye out for next weekend. That seems to be what everyone keeps hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ha! Very good point. I'm not used to thinking about such things. Do you think the waa on the south side of the low could produce more than a dusting? I want to believe someone gets 1-2 but low track keeps me jaded. Probably not. Think dusting and you might not be disappointed. We're still gonna downslope. Jon Jon shouuld get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 seasonal forecasting is still a mystery? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2467431 You're just figuring this out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step. Agreed. A bit closer. Just need more separation between the northern stream vorts. Hard to do, but not impossible. If I lived near RIC I'd be pulling out the laser. DT's probably gonna weenie all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step. My mom in Marion, SC is gonna see snow! She's giddy over an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Tad more amp and better dig for Wed. OBX weenies are off the chain right now. We have some serious work to do to get it up the coast but the 12z run took a baby step. It did, lots of work to do but I wouldn't completely dismiss the Tuesday/wed period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 It did, lots of work to do but I wouldn't completely dismiss the Tuesday/wed period. Last nights euro ensembles had 3 flush hits and a couple light events. With h5 zipping any favorable trend at this lead is a good sign. Outside chance as it stands now but many changes over the next 4 days or so for sure. Could go any direction. I hope you keep getting more into this one. I love me some optimistic Wes. Makes everything right with the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Last nights euro ensembles had 3 flush hits and a couple light events. With h5 zipping any favorable trend at this lead is a good sign. Outside chance as it stands now but many changes over the next 4 days or so for sure. Could go any direction. I hope you keep getting more into this one. I love me some optimistic Wes. Makes everything right with the subforum. I'm not optimistic. It's still a long shot but not a no shot. The changes needed to give it more space are not so big as to be impossible plus it looks cold through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Goodell just saw day gfs d10 and said...uh oh..that's kinda close...and I have to sit outside?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Last Night's Euro Ensemble Analogs were somewhat encouraging For the Ten 6-10 day analogs, only 3 had snow, but they were 3 solid solid events...4.5", 7.1", and 6.6" The 11-15 day analogs were not as promising as the trough moves west toward the PNA region and we relax under weak ridging to our east, but there were still snow events in 4 of the analogs....and they weren't too shabby...we know a 1.3" event at DCA can be a 2-4" storm for DC metro and a 18-24" event for Westminster. 1.3" 0.6" 3.9" and 1.8" 2.7" Overall I am pretty encouraged about getting accumulating snow over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS has 3 moderate to high QPF events in the fantasy range...2 snow/mix events and then a rainy lakes cutter with a cold air mass behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Last Night's Euro Ensemble Analogs were somewhat encouraging For the Ten 6-10 day analogs, only 3 had snow, but they were 3 solid solid events...4.5", 7.1", and 6.6" The 11-15 day analogs were not as promising as the trough moves west toward the PNA region and we relax under weak ridging to our east, but there were still snow events in 4 of the analogs....and they weren't too shabby...we know a 1.3" event at DCA can be a 2-4" storm for DC metro and a 18-24" event for Westminster. 1.3" 0.6" 3.9" and 1.8" 2.7" Overall I am pretty encouraged about getting accumulating snow over the next 2 weeks. But Westminster will only be expecting a dusting and sparky will be totally shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 But Westminster will only be expecting a dusting and sparky will be totally shocked. and "upset" that it won't be only a small sweeper... I am encouraged because the trend this winter has been to mazxmize the windows of opportunity. It would have been just as likely to get only a 1-3" event in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS has 3 moderate to high QPF events in the fantasy range...2 snow/mix events and then a rainy lakes cutter with a cold air mass behind it The Super Bowl weekend southern slider idea has been advertised on several model runs the last couple days. This 12z run is the juiciest I've seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 GFS has 3 moderate to high QPF events in the fantasy range...2 snow/mix events and then a rainy lakes cutter with a cold air mass behind it Really starting to look like we're due for a snow-ice-rain event. GEFS has been showing plenty. Euro ensembles are showing plenty of gulf coast moisture streaming up the oh valley and east coast d11-15 but temps near normal on the means. Totally fine in my book. We do those events well anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 One GEFS member gets snow up to us next Wednesday. Couple more get it to RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 So we've all agreed to give up on Monday's clipper? I know I have.....Wednesday's on borrowed time, but still there's a window. As always, d8-10 is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 One GEFS member gets snow up to us next Wednesday. Couple more get it to RIC. Overall improvement from the last 2 runs. But just a tick better. If we move a tick every 6 hours we're gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 yes Hahaha awesome avatar picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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