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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Euro has been showing a precip max east of the br but centered over the Delmarva. Gfs still has that but striped a good bit of central md wirh .1 - .15. I guess the low to the north is so big that the southern flank might survive the trip across the apps more than usual. How often do sub 990 lows track just north of the lakes like this? I can't recall many

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Guys idk if its just me but I am really feeling that GFS 153-159ish timeframe. The way the 500 and surface setups are showing makes me feel like we have a serious MECS on hand if we can go negative just a tad quicker.. what does everyone think?

 

 

Coldfront is too far southeast. 2/3/1996 had it 250 miles northwest.  Unless the 850mb coldfront never makes that far southeast in the first place I don't see it happening.  Still some ocean effect near Virginia beach.

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Yeah, GFS is suspect during the 144-159 time period

It all comes down to how crazy the pv pushes and its location. 0z just backed off a good bit on the squash. I would much prefer a more tame cold shot and chances for amplification up front or good confluence. We saw some fairly extreme solutions from the ops earlier. Kinda suspect but they could be right.

Big precip maker offshore for sure. The question we should ask ourselves is how often far eastern nc and obx gets snow from a coastal and nobody else on the coast.

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More to come.

Clippers just keep on diving.

Every 3rd one catches fire.

Mega cold.

Did a -25 wind chill last night.

This just doesn't seem like anything other than a random set of phrases generated by a bot. Yuri in Uzbeckybeckystan can claim another victory.

WPC says keep an eye out on Tues or Wed for secondary low devolpment around HSE.

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This just doesn't seem like anything other than a random set of phrases generated by a bot. Yuri in Uzbeckybeckystan can claim another victory.

WPC says keep an eye out on Tues or Wed for secondary low devolpment around HSE.

yep, Euro gives snow to the beaches of NC & SC

we need a better trough orientation, which will take some doing

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Euro ensembles are muting any warmup. Looks like maybe 1 day in d11-15 would be +5-10 but the cold comes right back. Not arctic cold but below normal for almost the entire country. -EPO comes back in force and....dare I say it......-ao/nao. +height anoms across virtually all the high latitudes. Gefs similar but not as sold on a -nao.

Euro ens hint at something with the offshore coastal mid-late next week. Small swath of light precip for us so some members must be picking it up enough to show on means. Just something to watch. Also still showing the d8-10. That timeframe is becoming likely to produce "some snow".

D8-15 as a whole is a pretty wet period with a good bit of gulf moisture. Very wet down south for such long leads.

Height patterns as a whole in the lr on the gefs and euro ens would favor both pacific and gulf moisture in the conus. Feb gonna b rockin??

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This just doesn't seem like anything other than a random set of phrases generated by a bot. Yuri in Uzbeckybeckystan can claim another victory.

WPC says keep an eye out on Tues or Wed for secondary low devolpment around HSE.

 

 

yep, Euro gives snow to the beaches of NC & SC

we need a better trough orientation, which will take some doing

Ninja'd.  Yeah, the depiction on the 0z GFS and Euro and 6z GFS (along with several GEFS members) has my interest.  Need a little more separation between northern stream vorts to allow one to dig and pull a little closer to the coast.  But, we just had that happen so it's not exactly crazy talk.  

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Euro ensembles are muting any warmup. Looks like maybe 1 day in d11-15 would be +5-10 but the cold comes right back. Not arctic cold but below normal for almost the entire country. -EPO comes back in force and....dare I say it......-ao/nao. +height anoms across virtually all the high latitudes. Gefs similar but not as sold on a -nao.

Euro ens hint at something with the offshore coastal mid-late next week. Small swath of light precip for us so some members must be picking it up enough to show on means. Just something to watch. Also still showing the d8-10. That timeframe is becoming likely to produce "some snow".

D8-15 as a whole is a pretty wet period with a good bit of gulf moisture. Very wet down south for such long leads.

Height patterns as a whole in the lr on the gefs and euro ens would favor both pacific and gulf moisture in the conus. Feb gonna b rockin??

I love when you say such romantic things.  

 

As I said, a tail-end wave scenario has my interest for mid next week.  Glad to see some of the Euro ensemble members have that idea.  

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I love when you say such romantic things.

As I said, a tail-end wave scenario has my interest for mid next week. Glad to see some of the Euro ensemble members have that idea.

It's crazy how every time the lr looks like real warm spell is gets muted as time rolls. Gefs is solid below normal temps door to door. I've never seen anything like this without Atlantic help.

D8-15 looks great on all guidance for frozen chances. We could get mixy stuff or even rain with a storm but the odds appear to favor more frozen than wet attm

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NAM is looking interesting for the Saturday event from BWI northeast 

 

Vast majority of 6z ens members drop a tenth in the north half of maryland. All of them give my yard and DC something. Some a tenth. others notsomuch. Sucks with the low being north and strong. Prob be above freezing when it matters. No biggie. SnowTV is always enjoyable. 

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