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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Perhaps he is thinking the pressures near the lakes are lower than near the south east?

Yep, hr 228 has weak slp in Missouri wirh piles of low pressure to the north in Canada and a weak ass hp sliding off the coast of maine. Cutter was a poor choice of words but there is no way to sugar coat that look even if d10 fakes us into thinking it might be a coastal. The h5 vort doesn't dig south of MO and its pretty flat and sheared.

So best case we get sheared overunning into a cold dome.

Now I'm just describing the run verbatim not saying I agree with it. But last run showed a true coastal so in comparison the run pretty much sucked.

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I think the Monday clipper could be another sneaky event. With the amplitude of the ridge in the west, why would it not take a more southern track. Have to watch the exact PV location too in future runs.

I keep hoping too but there is an overwhelming amount of guidance pointing at a north track. Both the euro/gfs and ensemble runs from 12z have it going north north now. 18z gfs op shows it again.

Yesterday's storm was much more interesting at this lead. I'll let this one go tomorrow if not improves.

12z euro ensembles like the d8-10 period a whole lot better than the op run. That's good news.

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I keep hoping too but there is an overwhelming amount of guidance pointing at a north track. Both the euro/gfs and ensemble runs from 12z have it going north north now. 18z gfs op shows it again.

Yesterday's storm was much more interesting at this lead. I'll let this one go tomorrow if not improves.

12z euro ensembles like the d8-10 period a whole lot better than the op run. That's good news.

 

That would be nice because I'm rooting for another DC-NYC storm for the superbowl.  

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I thought that is when the PNA ridge breaks down and our window of opportunity closes?

It's actually the opposite. As the ridge breaks down it increases our chances for pacific energy to roll in. Sometimes this sucks when there is no cold air to work with but that's not the case this time.

Sometimes big cold patterns start and end with good storms. Worked on the front with yesterday's storm. We'll wait and see about the back end.

On an optimistic note...after I beat up the euro op run...the ensembles are unusually bullish with snow chances at long leads. D8-10 jumped up to over 2" on the means but it's centered on the d8-10 window. 33 of 51 members show "some" snow, 11 are showing 4" or more, and 6 are showing 6" or more. One has a foot...heh. I'll watch ensemble trends and see if they get better but having this many show snow and decent so so far out is noteworthy.

No members show anything more than a dusting or inch until late next week so the monday threat looks even more dire that I though earlier. I'm punting for now.

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It's actually the opposite. As the ridge breaks down it increases our chances for pacific energy to roll in. Sometimes this sucks when there is no cold air to work with but that's not the case this time.

Sometimes big cold patterns start and end with good storms. Worked on the front with yesterday's storm. We'll wait and see about the back end.

On an optimistic note...after I beat up the euro op run...the ensembles are unusually bullish with snow chances at long leads. D8-10 jumped up to over 2" on the means but it's centered on the d8-10 window. 33 of 51 members show "some" snow, 11 are showing 4" or more, and 6 are showing 6" or more. One has a foot...heh. I'll watch ensemble trends and see if they get better but having this many show snow and decent so so far out is noteworthy.

No members show anything more than a dusting or inch until late next week so the monday threat looks even more dire that I though earlier. I'm punting for now.

I am not sure why you trust the Euro after this winters poor performance.

Each storm the GFS has been far superior.

Also lets wait until Saturday before we declare the Monday storm dead. Look what happened last week. The day to day changes were incredible.

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I am not sure why you trust the Euro after this winters poor performance.

Each storm the GFS has been far superior.

Also lets wait until Saturday before we declare the Monday storm dead. Look what happened last week. The day to day changes were incredible.

Euro ensembles generally eat the gefs for breakfast. Op runs are best used 5 days or less. I love both op models for different reasons. The euro runs 51 higher resolution members in it's ensemble suite. Far more than the gefs and the gefs uses lower resolution as well. Once you start looking out past 5 days or so it's always best to rely on ensemble guidance to get an idea of what type of solution has more support.

The thing about the monday storm is it has zero support right now. Basically both op models and all ensemble members say no storm. I just checked the 18z gefs run and all 16 members take the vort and storm north of us. Not a single member takes it south. The last storm has much more support at this lead. Especially with the gefs. It's why I kept watching it and felt like it was a real opportunity. I want the monday storm as bad as the next guy but right now I wouldn't bet a dollar @ 10-1 odds on it.

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I'm sure no one minds visitors from other forums if they add value...  However,

 

I am not sure why you trust the Euro after this winters poor performance.

Each storm the GFS has been far superior.

Also lets wait until Saturday before we declare the Monday storm dead. Look what happened last week. The day to day changes were incredible.

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Euro ensembles generally eat the gefs for breakfast. Op runs are best used 5 days or less. I love both op models for different reasons. The euro runs 51 higher resolution members in it's ensemble suite. Far more than the gefs and the gefs uses lower resolution as well. Once you start looking out past 5 days or so it's always best to rely on ensemble guidance to get an idea of what type of solution has more support.

The thing about the monday storm is it has zero support right now. Basically both op models and all ensemble members say no storm. I just checked the 18z gefs run and all 16 members take the vort and storm north of us. Not a single member takes it south. The last storm has much more support at this lead. Especially with the gefs. It's why I kept watching it and felt like it was a real opportunity. I want the monday storm as bad as the next guy but right now I wouldn't bet a dollar @ 10-1 odds on it.

Yeah..ok you talked me out of it. I'm out. My complete focus is now on the Saturday dusting potential.

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Keep an eye out on Day 6-7, the Ukie today showed a big storm, some of the GFS ensembles have a big storm in this time frame, and some are OTS> The EURO today actually showed  a close call, it had a nice trough, just too positively tilted. 

 

If this wave on the EURO can get a bit of separation from the ULL up north it would have some room to dig and create a low close to the coast.

 

post-8091-0-04844800-1390439665_thumb.gi

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I am not sure why you trust the Euro after this winters poor performance.

Each storm the GFS has been far superior.

Also lets wait until Saturday before we declare the Monday storm dead. Look what happened last week. The day to day changes were incredible.

The gfs shifted north towards the euro solution with the SLP tracking through NW PA. The gefs and euro ens are pretty supportive of their op runs as well.

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I am lost...are two posters from a forum north of here talking about the Monday storm? Because, if so, I agree it has a chance for them.

For our area? Not a lot of support.

(Not a query for h-berg, he adds value here)

Ha! I'm on my phone a lot and didn't see locations. Lol. Wtf? I don't analyze even a micrometer past the Mason Dixon. I don't have any problen with anybody dropping in our disco threads but they have to tell me what I'm missing and why WE might get snow.

CAPE, if anything changes I'm back in but for now we are forked. There's still time but very few grains of sand left in the hourglass.

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Keep an eye out on Day 6-7, the Ukie today showed a big storm, some of the GFS ensembles have a big storm in this time frame, and some are OTS> The EURO today actually showed  a close call, it had a nice trough, just too positively tilted. 

 

If this wave on the EURO can get a bit of separation from the ULL up north it would have some room to dig and create a low close to the coast.

 

attachicon.gifsep..gif

What does EURO stand for exactly?

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bite my head off, but the NAM would bring the Monday system further south because it has a deeper vortex over SE Canada and an interesting piece of energy on the western flank which, I think, may be the later or mid-week threat (next week)  on 2nd look, that would be Monday's threat

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bite my head off, but the NAM would bring the Monday system further south because it has a deeper vortex over SE Canada and an interesting piece of energy on the western flank which, I think, may be the later or mid-week threat (next week) on 2nd look, that would be Monday's threat

Lets ride the NAM! Maybe the Goofus will trend south soon as well? I'm hoping, but I'm only throwing in a few chips for now. ;)

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