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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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On a serious note,  as you noted CPC D+8 analogs (alias Junker's model according to Time) is interesting.   5 of the 10 analogs had snow, two had over 4 inches.  The feb 1996 storm had 13 inches at ADW and 12 at my house but less north and west. The real cold stretch in 1994 also showed up with the freezing rain event from hades. The time period centered on Jan 30th does look interesting. I'm not yet at the Tracker level of being all in but am interested in it.

 

The D+11 to me is not as nice since it has the oh Valley look to it but it still keeps the big ridge in AK.    It's not as cold of a pattern as some lows will go to the north and moderate us a bit but it also isn't a warm pattern. 

 

You're in.   Break out the Mad Dog 20/20

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Yep, and we have gfs/gefs consensus. We can probably fork this one early. Better that way than the storm forking us on Sunday. 

funny thing is we've seen it happen before this winter when things looked OK at days 6-7, fell apart days 4-5, then came back to us day 3 in; so who knows

as the captain of the Titanic said "don't give up the ship".....sadly, he was wrong, but he could have been right :arrowhead:

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saw that.....but how about snow Bob, snow....?

 

I feel like a drug addict searching for the inevitable fix I know I'll need

 

No. The run is a total disaster for snow. Ji will be here soon. 

 

The cold outbreak is a snow squasher. Dry as a bone through d10. Nice cutter at the end though. It's a vomit worthy run. And that's being nice. 

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No. The run is a total disaster for snow. Ji will be here soon. 

 

The cold outbreak is a snow squasher. Dry as a bone through d10. Nice cutter at the end though. It's a vomit worthy run. And that's being nice. 

It's one run,   could be right, might be wrong.   I haven't given up on the jan 29-31 period as a period of interest.  Usually periods of interest end up disappointing but occasionally like yesterday, they don't. 

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It's one run,   could be right, might be wrong.   I haven't given up on the jan 29-31 period as a period of interest.  Usually periods of interest end up disappointing but occasionally like yesterday, they don't. 

 

It's unusually similar to the gfs run. That's probably the only worrisome thing. That huge cold outbreak is a precip squasher on both runs. But being such an anomalous airmass it's safe to assume that the duration and depth is being overdone at this range. Future runs will likely scale it back some and then digital snow door opens back up. Another thing that seems unusual on the euro is that it gives most of our area less than .10 qpf for the entire 10 days. That seems pretty unlikely.

 

I'm more bummed that monday appears to be going north (or south in slang terms). Still time to get the flow/axis lined up better for it to dig more. We'll see. 

 

Maybe the euro ensembles will save the day. They were semi-bullish last night for the end of the month. 

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It's unusually similar to the gfs run. That's probably the only worrisome thing. That huge cold outbreak is a precip squasher on both runs. But being such an anomalous airmass it's safe to assume that the duration and depth is being overdone at this range. Future runs will likely scale it back some and then digital snow door opens back up. Another thing that seems unusual on the euro is that it gives most of our area less than .10 qpf for the entire 10 days. That seems pretty unlikely.

 

I'm more bummed that monday appears to be going north (or south in slang terms). Still time to get the flow/axis lined up better for it to dig more. We'll see. 

 

Maybe the euro ensembles will save the day. They were semi-bullish last night for the end of the month. 

one run of the euro at day 10 failing is not the end of the world. Onto the JMA

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Why are there a couple really warm analog dates? I'm not questioning the model as much as wondering why those dates are selected as top 10. The height patterns aren't a warm look at all. At least to me they aren't. GEFS members have had plenty of good solutions in this general period. This last storm kinda wore me out so I'm only using a key chain laser instead of the one on the uss enterprise. 

 

I think d10-15 is going to produce a mixy ice storm or maybe 2. Lots of ll cold around and the ss looks to activate. Just a wag but it seems logical. 

Bob,  I assume they were warm as some were mid Feb dates and any day with a low tracking north of us that time of year is likely to pop into the 50s.  

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