Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 GEFS favors a n track for Monday. Looks like we get some precip on most members. Nothing fancy. Not much of anything for the 30-31st timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah, but it's accuweather! And they are always right! Accuweather! OK, I'll stop now lol im picking up ur sarcasm Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 On a serious note, as you noted CPC D+8 analogs (alias Junker's model according to Time) is interesting. 5 of the 10 analogs had snow, two had over 4 inches. The feb 1996 storm had 13 inches at ADW and 12 at my house but less north and west. The real cold stretch in 1994 also showed up with the freezing rain event from hades. The time period centered on Jan 30th does look interesting. I'm not yet at the Tracker level of being all in but am interested in it. The D+11 to me is not as nice since it has the oh Valley look to it but it still keeps the big ridge in AK. It's not as cold of a pattern as some lows will go to the north and moderate us a bit but it also isn't a warm pattern. You're in. Break out the Mad Dog 20/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What's the euro showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GEFS favors a n track for Monday. Looks like we get some precip on most members. Nothing fancy. Not much of anything for the 30-31st timeframe. Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro? Only out to 90. Saturday would be a very light event if anything. Apps do well and there's a dusting to an inch east of us. It's a really bad low track for us but that's been a lock so no biggie. Hopefully monday looks better vs worse than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro way north on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro way north on Monday Yep, and we have gfs/gefs consensus. We can probably fork this one early. Better that way than the storm forking us on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yep, and we have gfs/gefs consensus. We can probably fork this one early. Better that way than the storm forking us on Sunday. funny thing is we've seen it happen before this winter when things looked OK at days 6-7, fell apart days 4-5, then came back to us day 3 in; so who knows as the captain of the Titanic said "don't give up the ship".....sadly, he was wrong, but he could have been right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'll say it before JI, the CFS2 vehemently disagrees That's unfortunate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yep, and we have gfs/gefs consensus. We can probably fork this one early. Better that way than the storm forking us on Sunday. Yeah, I think we lose on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GEFS favors a n track for Monday. Looks like we get some precip on most members. Nothing fancy. Not much of anything for the 30-31st timeframe. How about the 32nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wow, euro is advertising ridiculous cold next week. Tues-Thursday. DCA has 2 sub zero lows and low-mid teen highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wow, euro is advertising ridiculous cold next week. Tues-Thursday. DCA has 2 sub zero lows and low-mid teen highs. saw that.....but how about snow Bob, snow....? I feel like a drug addict searching for the inevitable fix I know I'll need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wow, euro is advertising ridiculous cold next week. Tues-Thursday. DCA has 2 sub zero lows and low-mid teen highs. JB said this was coming for next week for over a week now. a lot of people make fun of him but he can sniff out cold outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 JB said this was coming for next week for over a week now. a lot of people make fun of him but he can sniff out cold outbreaks. yep....even when they never come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Eventually you are going to be right, if you say it 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 JB said this was coming for next week for over a week now. a lot of people make fun of him but he can sniff out cold outbreaks. No, make fun of him because he's a uncontrolled hypester with a terrible track record. And nobody ever said next week was going to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 saw that.....but how about snow Bob, snow....? I feel like a drug addict searching for the inevitable fix I know I'll need No. The run is a total disaster for snow. Ji will be here soon. The cold outbreak is a snow squasher. Dry as a bone through d10. Nice cutter at the end though. It's a vomit worthy run. And that's being nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 JB said this was coming for next week for over a week now. a lot of people make fun of him but he can sniff out cold outbreaks. There's a wide gap between significant cold and infrastructure breaking, state of emergency, many billions of $$$ damage cold, which is what he was suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 No. The run is a total disaster for snow. Ji will be here soon. The cold outbreak is a snow squasher. Dry as a bone through d10. Nice cutter at the end though. It's a vomit worthy run. And that's being nice. It's one run, could be right, might be wrong. I haven't given up on the jan 29-31 period as a period of interest. Usually periods of interest end up disappointing but occasionally like yesterday, they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's one run, could be right, might be wrong. I haven't given up on the jan 29-31 period as a period of interest. Usually periods of interest end up disappointing but occasionally like yesterday, they don't. It's unusually similar to the gfs run. That's probably the only worrisome thing. That huge cold outbreak is a precip squasher on both runs. But being such an anomalous airmass it's safe to assume that the duration and depth is being overdone at this range. Future runs will likely scale it back some and then digital snow door opens back up. Another thing that seems unusual on the euro is that it gives most of our area less than .10 qpf for the entire 10 days. That seems pretty unlikely. I'm more bummed that monday appears to be going north (or south in slang terms). Still time to get the flow/axis lined up better for it to dig more. We'll see. Maybe the euro ensembles will save the day. They were semi-bullish last night for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's unusually similar to the gfs run. That's probably the only worrisome thing. That huge cold outbreak is a precip squasher on both runs. But being such an anomalous airmass it's safe to assume that the duration and depth is being overdone at this range. Future runs will likely scale it back some and then digital snow door opens back up. Another thing that seems unusual on the euro is that it gives most of our area less than .10 qpf for the entire 10 days. That seems pretty unlikely. I'm more bummed that monday appears to be going north (or south in slang terms). Still time to get the flow/axis lined up better for it to dig more. We'll see. Maybe the euro ensembles will save the day. They were semi-bullish last night for the end of the month. one run of the euro at day 10 failing is not the end of the world. Onto the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I can't wait until Accuweather TV (which was just announced) replaces The Weather Channel on DirecTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Why are there a couple really warm analog dates? I'm not questioning the model as much as wondering why those dates are selected as top 10. The height patterns aren't a warm look at all. At least to me they aren't. GEFS members have had plenty of good solutions in this general period. This last storm kinda wore me out so I'm only using a key chain laser instead of the one on the uss enterprise. I think d10-15 is going to produce a mixy ice storm or maybe 2. Lots of ll cold around and the ss looks to activate. Just a wag but it seems logical. Bob, I assume they were warm as some were mid Feb dates and any day with a low tracking north of us that time of year is likely to pop into the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I dont think that todays Euro is going to be our final solution. I am inclined to believe we may something similiar to yesterdays event on a smaller scale as the storm rides teh artic front to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 EURO isn't as terrible as you'd think, just think, this last storm snuck up on us, 72 hours out no one had a clue a MECS was on its way, then boom I get 13". There's lots of different shortwaves the models need to organize, give it a few days we'll have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What cutter are you referring to Chill. Here is Euro 10 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What cutter are you referring to Chill. Here is Euro 10 day Yea I looked at Day 10 wasn't sure what he was talking about because temps were below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Perhaps he is thinking the pressures near the lakes are lower than near the south east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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