Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion

[snow.]

Just stay patient.. like we aren't already really good at that around here. 

 

I like ICEZ and his optimism, but this "we" stuff gets tiresome in general no matter who it is coming from..."we" has gotten me 13" since 1/26/11

[PhineasC]

Joe Bastardi is hilarious.

[snow.]

here is the CFS weekly for 2/3-2/7

 

[mitchnick]

here is the CFS weekly for 1/31 - 2/6

 

cfsweekly.PNG

nice....how about the precip map?

[Ian]

nice....how about the precip map?

Get Phineas in here stat. 

[mitchnick]

nice....how about the precip map?

never  mind....this is that week and the week after which is also cold

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20140113.NA.gif

[mitchnick]

never  mind....this is that week and the week after which is also cold

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20140113.NA.gif

precip map for same 2 weeks   for once CFS2, please be right

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20140113.NAsfcT.gif

[AvantHiatus]

Of course everyone ignores the fact that the arctic and main cold source regions are engulfed in a torch.

 

If it means getting snow on the east coast it is worth it.

[needbiggerboat]

Of course everyone ignores the fact that the arctic and main cold source regions are engulfed in a torch.

If it means getting snow on the east coast it is worth it.

Tenman says it don't matter

[Ian]

Of course everyone ignores the fact that the arctic and main cold source regions are engulfed in a torch.

 

If it means getting snow on the east coast it is worth it.

You kinda want that to get the cold around here at least. Torch up there is all relative anyway..

[mitchnick]

Of course everyone ignores the fact that the arctic and main cold source regions are engulfed in a torch.

 

If it means getting snow on the east coast it is worth it.

do you know how cold temps are in the arctic when they torch?

they are still freaking cold

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

[AvantHiatus]

do you know how cold temps are in the arctic when they torch?

they are still freaking cold

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

They are definitely cold for sure compared to what we experience, the post was partly in jest but these arctic dipole patterns are significant nonetheless especially as we enter Spring and Summer.

[usedtobe]

They are definitely cold for sure compared to what we experience, the post was partly in jest but these arctic dipole patterns are significant nonetheless especially as we enter Spring and Summer.

Here's the surface temp anomaly for feb 2010.  When you get blocking to our north it usually is warmer than normal across canada.

 

[ravensrule]

Get Phineas in here stat. 

Cold/Dry baby the way you like it.

[Avdave]

weird little symbol messed up the url 

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776

'copter

[snow.]

13 out of the last 14 winters I got at least one 1"+ event during the 1/17 - 1/30 window...the only winter I didn't was January 2006 which was a torch.....I am guaranteeing at least one 1"+ event IMBY....lock it up

[mitchnick]

13 out of the last 14 winters I got at least one 1"+ event during the 1/17 - 1/30 window...the only winter I didn't was January 2006 which was a torch.....I am guaranteeing at least one 1"+ event IMBY....lock it up

I'll sleep better tonight for sure with that guarantee of mediocrity       lol

actually, it's all any forecaster around here can do

don't know when, but we'll all get in on a 4-6", or more, event sometime this winter....too much cold, too many savory analogs

[NaoPos]

Of course everyone ignores the fact that the arctic and main cold source regions are engulfed in a torch.

 

If it means getting snow on the east coast it is worth it.

this isn't last year when canada was torched with no PV on this side of the globe. The PV gets shunted south of the ridge bridge, and thats all the cold air source you need. It stays locked in place due to the upcomign ------EPO.++++PNA pattern. western canada can "torch" all they want. Ideally, it's what you wanna see. SHut the pacific off, sit the PV north of you. the eastern conus flow is a bit progressive now, but should ease up a bit as we get towards Feb.

[Ian]

13 out of the last 14 winters I got at least one 1"+ event during the 1/17 - 1/30 window...the only winter I didn't was January 2006 which was a torch.....I am guaranteeing at least one 1"+ event IMBY....lock it up

if it can't snow now in the next few weeks... it might be a recent winter

 

[gymengineer]

13 out of the last 14 winters I got at least one 1"+ event during the 1/17 - 1/30 window...the only winter I didn't was January 2006 which was a torch.....I am guaranteeing at least one 1"+ event IMBY....lock it up

And for Bobchill's sake, since he doesn't keep records back into time, here's roughly what Potomac-North Bethesda-Rockville recorded in those events:

 

1/24/13: 1 1/4"

1/20/12: 1 1/4"

1/26/11: 9"

1/30/10: 6"

1/27/09: 1 3/4"

1/17/08: 4 1/2"

1/21/07: 1 1/2"

1/19/05: 2"

1/22/05: 4"

1/29-30/05: 2 1/4"

1/25-27/04: 7"

1/16-17/03: 1"

1/19/02: 3"

1/21/01: 3"

1/20/00: 5 1/2"

1/25/00: 9 1/2"

1/30/00: 5"

[snow.]

And for Bobchill's sake, since he doesn't keep records back into time, here's roughly what Potomac-North Bethesda-Rockville recorded in those events:

 

1/24/13: 1 1/4"

1/20/12: 1 1/4"

1/26/11: 9"

1/30/10: 6"

1/27/09: 1 3/4"

1/17/08: 4 1/2"

1/21/07: 1 1/2"

1/19/05: 2"

1/22/05: 4"

1/29-30/05: 2 1/4"

1/25-27/04: 7"

1/16-17/03: 1"

1/19/02: 3"

1/21/01: 3"

1/20/00: 5 1/2"

1/25/00: 9 1/2"

1/30/00: 5"

 

MBY totals in red since I started measuring every event in 04-05..Of course neither of us included any of the handful of <1" events

 

 

1/24/13: 1 1/4", 1"

1/20/12: 1 1/4", same

1/26/11: 9", 6.75"

1/30/10: 6", 6.5"

1/27/09: 1 3/4", 2"

1/17/08: 4 1/2", 2.5"

1/21/07: 1 1/2", same

1/19/05: 2", same

1/22/05: 4", 3.25"

1/29-30/05: 2 1/4", 2.5"

 

[Bob Chill]

Great stats guys. I appreciate it. I joke around a lot but I'm pretty bullish for an event or 2 or maybe 3 for the next 17 days. Getting blanked would be an outlier based on climo period and pattern recognition

[snow.]

Great stats guys. I appreciate it. I joke around a lot but I'm pretty bullish for an event or 2 or maybe 3 for the next 17 days. Getting blanked would be an outlier based on climo period and pattern recognition

 

we're getting accumulating snow before the end of the month..as we both know...whether 1" or 4" is yet to be seen

[HighStakes]

And for Bobchill's sake, since he doesn't keep records back into time, here's roughly what Potomac-North Bethesda-Rockville recorded in those events:

 

1/24/13: 1 1/4"

1/20/12: 1 1/4"

1/26/11: 9"

1/30/10: 6"

1/27/09: 1 3/4"

1/17/08: 4 1/2"

1/21/07: 1 1/2"

1/19/05: 2"

1/22/05: 4"

1/29-30/05: 2 1/4"

1/25-27/04: 7"

1/16-17/03: 1"

1/19/02: 3"

1/21/01: 3"

1/20/00: 5 1/2"

1/25/00: 9 1/2"

1/30/00: 5"

It would be very nice if the upcoming pattern could give that stretch in 2000 a run for it's money.

[usedtobe]

13 out of the last 14 winters I got at least one 1"+ event during the 1/17 - 1/30 window...the only winter I didn't was January 2006 which was a torch.....I am guaranteeing at least one 1"+ event IMBY....lock it up

If we don't get a 2 inch at DCA out of this pattern sometime before the end of the month, I'll start thinking we are cursed. 

[mitchnick]

If we don't get a 2 inch at DCA out of this pattern sometime before the end of the month, I'll start thinking we are cursed. 

well if tonight's NAM is any example of what we're in for, time to place a silver bullet in the shirt pocket

[Bob Chill]

If we don't get a 2 inch at DCA out of this pattern sometime before the end of the month, I'll start thinking we are cursed.

I've said it before and I'll say it again...I strongly suspect there is some tattooed freak with 90 body piercings in a French quarter back alley room jamming a railroad spike in a stuffed doll snowman the shape of the capital

[Ji]

Chew on this

"The latest EPO forecast shows the EPO reaching approximately 200 meters below normal toward the end of January. During the 1981-10 climate base period, there were 3 cases in which the EPO fell to 200 or more meters below normal in the January 20-31 period during which January had temperature anomalies similar to what has occurred so far this month: 1994, 2003, and 2010."

[snow.]

Chew on this

"The latest EPO forecast shows the EPO reaching approximately 200 meters below normal toward the end of January. During the 1981-10 climate base period, there were 3 cases in which the EPO fell to 200 or more meters below normal in the January 20-31 period during which January had temperature anomalies similar to what has occurred so far this month: 1994, 2003, and 2010."

 

 

lol...way to arbitrarily narrow your sample size

[Ji]

lol...way to arbitrarily narrow your sample size

That's from don Sutherland not me