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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Gfs starting to support it as well. Euro ensembles seem to be liking it more as time passes. Pretty good signal this far out for sure. We'll still have snow on the ground from this system.

I'm enjoying the model battle for overnight monday. Euro dead set on the low passing north. Gfs bouncing between options. Gfs just beat the euro pretty good at medium range with yesterdays storm. Get the vort and lp to dig below and we get another 2-4.

Euro ensembles backing off on any warmup. Couple days above normal (not by much) and the cold returns. Precip totals on last nights run are around 1.2 - 1.4 through d15. Looking very active starting Monday through early Feb for us.

We have a chance at a solid winter here imo. We don't appear to be wasting prime climo. Good stuff

 

I'm just happy there's not going to be the typical 'January thaw' late this month :)

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I'm just happy there's not going to be the typical 'January thaw' late this month :)

 

Well, one could argue we had a January thaw last week through this past weekend, including the near 60 degrees right before yesterday's storm. :)   Those several days all but wiped out the negative departures amassed during the early month cold outbreak (though with the projected upcoming cold, we should get well back into the negative I'd think).  Heck, it seems the past 2 Januaries were a thaw in themselves with only a small "break" of cold!

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This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15.  I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down.  

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Couple ok d8+ analogs showing up including 2/15/96. I didn't look terribley close but it looks like half have frozen within a day either side. Some ok events and even an ice storm (I think we're due for one in early feb when things relax). There are some really warm analog dates that I'm not sure why. Given the height pattern, 50* days seem quite unlikely. 

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This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15.  I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down.  

OK. I'm planning to go to NYC for President's Day, so a warm up then would be welcomed.

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This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15.  I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down.  

Yeah, I agree.  I'm on board with a storm before Super Bowl.   Liking that Jan 30th period.  Euro keeps banging the drum.

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Tongue-in-cheek my Yankees-loving conservative friend.  Although we have had a few cold Marches recently.  

 

Jokes aside, you have to wonder if the next 10-15 days is a grand finale of sorts. I personally don't feel strongly either way. We've been variable all winter so I suppose that can continue but the next stretch appears to be a really prolonged cold compared to all other periods so far. 

 

I'm not saying that winter ends in early Feb. That is silly. Just that the tendency to be warmer vs colder for a while may show it's face. 

 

ETA: the ao is likely to finish Jan with a negative reading. That goes against all early thoughts and forecasts. Years that outright flipped has some staying power. It's an index worth paying close attention to as we enter Feb. 

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Jokes aside, you have to wonder if the next 10-15 days is a grand finale of sorts. I personally don't feel strongly either way. We've been variable all winter so I suppose that can continue but the next stretch appears to be a really prolonged cold compared to all other periods so far.

Let's hope so.  Early spring would be FABULOUS!

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Jokes aside, you have to wonder if the next 10-15 days is a grand finale of sorts. I personally don't feel strongly either way. We've been variable all winter so I suppose that can continue but the next stretch appears to be a really prolonged cold compared to all other periods so far. 

 

I'm not saying that winter ends in early Feb. That is silly. Just that the tendency to be warmer vs colder for a while may show it's face. 

Even in winters with more blocking than this one, a particular pattern typically lasts a couple-few weeks.  It seems like the rockin' -EPO/+PNA combo is going to be fairly stable for about 2 weeks.  Maybe we breakdown, have a short reload warmup period and get another good pattern to round out mid-late February, but I wouldn't count on it.  Probably we'll have a torchy February and then oodles of 35F rain in March.  

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Even in winters with more blocking than this one, a particular pattern typically lasts a couple-few weeks.  It seems like the rockin' -EPO/+PNA combo is going to be fairly stable for about 2 weeks.  Maybe we breakdown, have a short reload warmup period and get another good pattern to round out mid-late February, but I wouldn't count on it.  Probably we'll have a torchy February and then oodles of 35F rain in March.  

I'll say it before JI, the CFS2 vehemently disagrees

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I'll say it before JI, the CFS2 vehemently disagrees

Yeah, we know about the CFSv2.  I hope it's right of course.  Maybe we just get a short 3-4 day breakdown and then a reload.  But look at this month:  very wintery first 10 days with 1 good snowstorm, a 5 day warmup, some transition days and then what will probably be a very wintry last 10 days with at least 1 big snow.  Maybe we can pull a repeat in February.  

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It had it 8 hours ago. 

On a serious note,  as you noted CPC D+8 analogs (alias Junker's model according to Time) is interesting.   5 of the 10 analogs had snow, two had over 4 inches.  The feb 1996 storm had 13 inches at ADW and 12 at my house but less north and west. The real cold stretch in 1994 also showed up with the freezing rain event from hades. The time period centered on Jan 30th does look interesting. I'm not yet at the Tracker level of being all in but am interested in it.

 

The D+11 to me is not as nice since it has the oh Valley look to it but it still keeps the big ridge in AK.    It's not as cold of a pattern as some lows will go to the north and moderate us a bit but it also isn't a warm pattern. 

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On a serious note,  as you noted CPC D+8 analogs (alias Junker's model according to Time) is interesting.   5 of the 10 analogs had snow, two had over 4 inches.  The feb 1996 storm had 13 inches at ADW and 12 at my house but less north and west. The real cold stretch in 1994 also showed up with the freezing rain event from hades. The time period centered on Jan 30th does look interesting. I'm not yet at the Tracker level of being all in but am interested in it.

 

The D+11 to me is not as nice since it has the oh Valley look to it but it still keeps the big ridge in AK.    It's not as cold of a pattern as some lows will go to the north and moderate us a bit but it also isn't a warm pattern. 

 

Why are there a couple really warm analog dates? I'm not questioning the model as much as wondering why those dates are selected as top 10. The height patterns aren't a warm look at all. At least to me they aren't. GEFS members have had plenty of good solutions in this general period. This last storm kinda wore me out so I'm only using a key chain laser instead of the one on the uss enterprise. 

 

I think d10-15 is going to produce a mixy ice storm or maybe 2. Lots of ll cold around and the ss looks to activate. Just a wag but it seems logical. 

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