FallsLake Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Um..... That would have to indicate a CAD friendly pattern. When you have GA and SC above normal in temps but NC is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 IAD at 16.5 total snow...good chance to exceed climo with the upcoming features through month end, and with Feb on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS gives Westminster .24 in qpf on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Gfs starting to support it as well. Euro ensembles seem to be liking it more as time passes. Pretty good signal this far out for sure. We'll still have snow on the ground from this system. I'm enjoying the model battle for overnight monday. Euro dead set on the low passing north. Gfs bouncing between options. Gfs just beat the euro pretty good at medium range with yesterdays storm. Get the vort and lp to dig below and we get another 2-4. Euro ensembles backing off on any warmup. Couple days above normal (not by much) and the cold returns. Precip totals on last nights run are around 1.2 - 1.4 through d15. Looking very active starting Monday through early Feb for us. We have a chance at a solid winter here imo. We don't appear to be wasting prime climo. Good stuff I'm just happy there's not going to be the typical 'January thaw' late this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'm just happy there's not going to be the typical 'January thaw' late this month Well, one could argue we had a January thaw last week through this past weekend, including the near 60 degrees right before yesterday's storm. Those several days all but wiped out the negative departures amassed during the early month cold outbreak (though with the projected upcoming cold, we should get well back into the negative I'd think). Heck, it seems the past 2 Januaries were a thaw in themselves with only a small "break" of cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 NAM says we some flakes Thurs night and GFS says no NAM says no flakes on Sat evening and GFS says we do GFS says NO to clipper on Monday and has go to our north more than any other run.....early though, we'll see EDIT: when I say flakes I mean a coating to inch at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS keeps chance of something on the table for end of next week into Super Bowl weekend. Or at least the chance of something. Beyond truncation and what not Otherwise, wall to wall cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15. I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15. I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Couple ok d8+ analogs showing up including 2/15/96. I didn't look terribley close but it looks like half have frozen within a day either side. Some ok events and even an ice storm (I think we're due for one in early feb when things relax). There are some really warm analog dates that I'm not sure why. Given the height pattern, 50* days seem quite unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15. I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down. OK. I'm planning to go to NYC for President's Day, so a warm up then would be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This 2 week period of cold and at least 1 warning criteria snowstorm will make it much more tolerable when spring starts on Feb 15. I think (aka hope with some rational thinking mixed in) we probably score at least 1 more 2-4"/3-6" type deal before the pattern breaks down. Yeah, I agree. I'm on board with a storm before Super Bowl. Liking that Jan 30th period. Euro keeps banging the drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah, I agree. I'm on board with a storm before Super Bowl. Liking that Jan 30th period. Euro keeps banging the drum. Didn't the GFS have a storm in that time frame in super lala land for a couple of runs a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Tongue-in-cheek my Yankees-loving conservative friend. Although we have had a few cold Marches recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Didn't the GFS have a storm in that time frame in super lala land for a couple of runs a few days ago? It had it 8 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Tongue-in-cheek my Yankees-loving conservative friend. Although we have had a few cold Marches recently. they finally got a pitcher again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Tongue-in-cheek my Yankees-loving conservative friend. Although we have had a few cold Marches recently. Jokes aside, you have to wonder if the next 10-15 days is a grand finale of sorts. I personally don't feel strongly either way. We've been variable all winter so I suppose that can continue but the next stretch appears to be a really prolonged cold compared to all other periods so far. I'm not saying that winter ends in early Feb. That is silly. Just that the tendency to be warmer vs colder for a while may show it's face. ETA: the ao is likely to finish Jan with a negative reading. That goes against all early thoughts and forecasts. Years that outright flipped has some staying power. It's an index worth paying close attention to as we enter Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Jokes aside, you have to wonder if the next 10-15 days is a grand finale of sorts. I personally don't feel strongly either way. We've been variable all winter so I suppose that can continue but the next stretch appears to be a really prolonged cold compared to all other periods so far. Let's hope so. Early spring would be FABULOUS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Jokes aside, you have to wonder if the next 10-15 days is a grand finale of sorts. I personally don't feel strongly either way. We've been variable all winter so I suppose that can continue but the next stretch appears to be a really prolonged cold compared to all other periods so far. I'm not saying that winter ends in early Feb. That is silly. Just that the tendency to be warmer vs colder for a while may show it's face. Even in winters with more blocking than this one, a particular pattern typically lasts a couple-few weeks. It seems like the rockin' -EPO/+PNA combo is going to be fairly stable for about 2 weeks. Maybe we breakdown, have a short reload warmup period and get another good pattern to round out mid-late February, but I wouldn't count on it. Probably we'll have a torchy February and then oodles of 35F rain in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Um..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Even in winters with more blocking than this one, a particular pattern typically lasts a couple-few weeks. It seems like the rockin' -EPO/+PNA combo is going to be fairly stable for about 2 weeks. Maybe we breakdown, have a short reload warmup period and get another good pattern to round out mid-late February, but I wouldn't count on it. Probably we'll have a torchy February and then oodles of 35F rain in March. I'll say it before JI, the CFS2 vehemently disagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'll say it before JI, the CFS2 vehemently disagrees It is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Accuweather is all in. It's coming right for us! (South Park reference there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'll say it before JI, the CFS2 vehemently disagrees Yeah, we know about the CFSv2. I hope it's right of course. Maybe we just get a short 3-4 day breakdown and then a reload. But look at this month: very wintery first 10 days with 1 good snowstorm, a 5 day warmup, some transition days and then what will probably be a very wintry last 10 days with at least 1 big snow. Maybe we can pull a repeat in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It had it 8 hours ago. On a serious note, as you noted CPC D+8 analogs (alias Junker's model according to Time) is interesting. 5 of the 10 analogs had snow, two had over 4 inches. The feb 1996 storm had 13 inches at ADW and 12 at my house but less north and west. The real cold stretch in 1994 also showed up with the freezing rain event from hades. The time period centered on Jan 30th does look interesting. I'm not yet at the Tracker level of being all in but am interested in it. The D+11 to me is not as nice since it has the oh Valley look to it but it still keeps the big ridge in AK. It's not as cold of a pattern as some lows will go to the north and moderate us a bit but it also isn't a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The storm on Monday is interesting. There seems to be something on the southern stream as well. Needs to be watched for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Accuweather is all in. It's coming right for us! (South Park reference there) Screen Shot 2014-01-22 at 12.28.06 PM.png Forecast based right off 6Z GFS. Too bad 12Z says no and CMC has it at like 40 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Forecast based right off 6Z GFS. Too bad 12Z says no and CMC has it at like 40 on Sunday. Yeah, but it's accuweather! And they are always right! Accuweather! OK, I'll stop now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 On a serious note, as you noted CPC D+8 analogs (alias Junker's model according to Time) is interesting. 5 of the 10 analogs had snow, two had over 4 inches. The feb 1996 storm had 13 inches at ADW and 12 at my house but less north and west. The real cold stretch in 1994 also showed up with the freezing rain event from hades. The time period centered on Jan 30th does look interesting. I'm not yet at the Tracker level of being all in but am interested in it. The D+11 to me is not as nice since it has the oh Valley look to it but it still keeps the big ridge in AK. It's not as cold of a pattern as some lows will go to the north and moderate us a bit but it also isn't a warm pattern. Why are there a couple really warm analog dates? I'm not questioning the model as much as wondering why those dates are selected as top 10. The height patterns aren't a warm look at all. At least to me they aren't. GEFS members have had plenty of good solutions in this general period. This last storm kinda wore me out so I'm only using a key chain laser instead of the one on the uss enterprise. I think d10-15 is going to produce a mixy ice storm or maybe 2. Lots of ll cold around and the ss looks to activate. Just a wag but it seems logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 well we still got about 5 days to go for this one, and remember models didn't really show a good snow event for us till 48 hrs before it hit. so relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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