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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Usually these NS disturbances trend northward. The 18z has Bob's Monday/Tuesday vort with a nice defined SLP, but it goes to the north of Baltimore/DC. Not our best set-up, but any QPF will fall into a cold, ratio healthy environment. At this point think 1-2" is possible, but I'd be cautious considering the vort track (healthy but too far N). 

 

Whenever someone wants I'll start a thread for that one also and try to work my magic once again. 

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Usually these NS disturbances trend northward. The 18z has Bob's Monday/Tuesday vort with a nice defined SLP, but it goes to the north of Baltimore/DC. Not our best set-up, but any QPF will fall into a cold, ratio healthy environment. At this point think 1-2" is possible, but I'd be cautious considering the vort track (healthy but too far N). 

 

Whenever someone wants I'll start a thread for that one also and try to work my magic once again. 

Relax, man - it's a week away. Enjoy your snow now and don't worry about starting a thread for that one until later in the week. 

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Usually these NS disturbances trend northward. The 18z has Bob's Monday/Tuesday vort with a nice defined SLP, but it goes to the north of Baltimore/DC. Not our best set-up, but any QPF will fall into a cold, ratio healthy environment. At this point think 1-2" is possible, but I'd be cautious considering the vort track (healthy but too far N).

Whenever someone wants I'll start a thread for that one also and try to work my magic once again.

To be fair, we have no clue where the vort is going. If it passes north we're fooked. Multiple runs took it south until today but there's no sense dissecting it for days. Just watch h5 and see if we can get it under us. They're sneaky little bastards. And they like to F with us big time.

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To be fair, we have no clue where the vort is going. If it passes north we're fooked. Multiple runs took it south until today but there's no sense dissecting it for days. Just watch h5 and see if we can get it under us. They're sneaky little bastards. And they like to F with us big time.

Oh I'm well aware, just a bit of a look ahead. Just looking for the usuals when its going to snow, nice vort, s track, low popping. We have 2 of those almost, the vort is decent at this point. Just throwing in the very first hint of laser vision. 

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Monday is probably the only real next chance. We appear to be on the edge of too far south for low as it stands right now but much has to happen first. A no impact clipper/front on thursday and then a much more powerful fropa on Saturday. Big low up north means not much for us but another pretty cold shot on the heels.

Then it gets interesting. Much will depend on placement of the pv and how far the Mon vort can dig. If we can get it below us then the door is open for an ok clipper. 1-3/2-4 kinda thing. If the flow is more amplified then we get lucky but I think we spent a big parcel of luck today so...but worth watching

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Monday is probably the only real next chance. We appear to be on the edge of too far south for low as it stands right now but much has to happen first. A no impact clipper/front on thursday and then a much more powerful fropa on Saturday. Big low up north means not much for us but another pretty cold shot on the heels.

Then it gets interesting. Much will depend on placement of the pv and how far the Mon vort can dig. If we can get it below us then the door is open for an ok clipper. 1-3/2-4 kinda thing. If the flow is more amplified then we get lucky but I think we spent a big parcel of luck today so...but worth watching

Could be some good snow showers or even squalls on Sat.

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6z  GFS keeps us near something for next Monday with a northern stream feature, but continues to advertise it as something a bit too far north for us. Worth watching obviously, though. Would need the vort to dig a bit.

 

It also has the end of the month thing that the Euro does. That looks more southern stream and worth watching because it is showing up on multiple models now and is in the timeframe that HM identified as being of interest about a week back. 

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Euro snowstorm 4-8 towards end of month

Gfs starting to support it as well. Euro ensembles seem to be liking it more as time passes. Pretty good signal this far out for sure. We'll still have snow on the ground from this system.

I'm enjoying the model battle for overnight monday. Euro dead set on the low passing north. Gfs bouncing between options. Gfs just beat the euro pretty good at medium range with yesterdays storm. Get the vort and lp to dig below and we get another 2-4.

Euro ensembles backing off on any warmup. Couple days above normal (not by much) and the cold returns. Precip totals on last nights run are around 1.2 - 1.4 through d15. Looking very active starting Monday through early Feb for us.

We have a chance at a solid winter here imo. We don't appear to be wasting prime climo. Good stuff

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