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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Gefs and euro ensembles now at odds in the lr. Gefs has flipped to aob door to door and euro aoa d12+. Euro ens mean has gotten a good bit wetter d11-15 compared to previous. Euro is far from a torch but the means favor trough west/ridge east.

-epo signal is strong and looks to go nowhere. Main difference is the euro lowers heights more in the nw and eastern goa and raises heights downstream in our neck.

Imo- even if the euro is right it will be a transient pattern. We've seen this a couple times already and the east flipped back to a more wintry lw pattern pretty quickly. If the gefs is right then we won't waste much of our prime climo. Good stuff either way.

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GFS is a train of storms

Ens members have been looking like that for a while. Not all are snow but virtually every member has been showing one or more prolific precip maker per run.Without Atlantic help we will prob get a cutter/runner but potential on the heels of one of those as long as we don't lose the Pac.

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It's bizarre imo. It's like a midwest to gulf transfer and then reform off the east coast.

RR, we may get a coastal but prob not like that.

looks like a chance or 2 at minor stuff before then or am I wrong reading those horrendous free maps proving all the more "you get what you pay for"

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Verbatim its a convoluted track. It starts moving up way too far West for our liking but then moves sideways and forms a miller a type low off sc coast.

The convoluted that is because of the big vortex that is located near James Bay which produced confluence that forces the storm to redevelop. Move that vortex and the evolution would be way different.  

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