Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 just saw that...would be a neat daytime eventBig changes at h5 next weekend. Pac energy settles in Ut/co and gulf opens. So close for us but no phase. Central LA weenies are freeking out right now. All 3 of them....lolGefs members have some nice solutions in that window. Timing won't be known for days....please man....please....I've been tortured enough and rarely complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro op says whatever to the gfs breaking down the ridge out west. All 10 days look interesting. Next weekend is definitely a period to keep watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro op says whatever to the gfs breaking down the ridge out west. All 10 days look interesting. Next weekend is definitely a period to keep watching I'm proud of you holding down the fort. Tuesday looks to be our best chance at something....and I agree..I'd take .08 and good ratios over wetter and 37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It's coming. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 6z gfs nice for Tuesday. 2 inches with ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 6z gfs nice for Tuesday. 2 inches with ratio? 2" if its 10-1 ratio...the 6z gfs is 3-4" easy here if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 2" if its 10-1 ratio...the 6z gfs is 3-4" easy here if correctLooks like 0.13" QPF verbatim at IAD on the GFS and 0.08" at DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like 0.13" QPF verbatim at IAD on the GFS .22 for jyo on the site I use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Kinda starting to lock in on an inch region wide with upside potential for tues. Would be a nice sticking to streets fluffy snow. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS sure has a death grip on warming us up to start February....euro any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS sure has a death grip on warming us up to start February....euro any different? Euro ens retros the ak ridge enough to center lower heights in the west with weak ridging in the east way out there in d12+ land. Blocking hp over the pole keeping the pv from running away. Verbatim it would be seasonal with fronts. Probably end up above aob on temps but no torch at all. Not a snow pattern. Track would be nw Ens liking the tues threat and also show two more windows. Next sat and following Tues/wed timeframe. I personally doubt the relaxation is a long term pattern flip. My wag would be another epo reload of some sort further out in time. We've being doing the whole short duration warm thing all winter. No reason to believe it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro ens retros the ak ridge enough to center lower heights in the west with weak ridging in the east way out there in d12+ land. Blocking hp over the pole keeping the pv from running away. Verbatim it would be seasonal with fronts. Probably end up above aob on temps but no torch at all. Not a snow pattern. Track would be nw Ens liking the tues threat and also show two more windows. Next sat and following Tues/wed timeframe. I personally doubt the relaxation is a long term pattern flip. My wag would be another epo reload of some sort further out in time. We've being doing the whole short duration warm thing all winter. No reason to believe it stops. The GFS and euro finally are on board with the clipper with enough pizzazz to give some light accumulations across the area.....maybe my article from last week won't look too stupid. The ensembles aslo have gotten more bullish on the weekend event one that someone texted me that Larry Cosgrove likes. I supsect there will be a relaxation towards the end of the month but also kind of this there would be a reload. Too bad we keep the heights high just southeast of Nova Scotia and have low heights over southern Greenland. Out threats continue to be for light event that might morph into moderate ones if we get really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The GFS and euro finally are on board with the clipper with enough pizzazz to give some light accumulations across the area.....maybe my article from last week won't look too stupid. The ensembles aslo have gotten more bullish on the weekend event one that someone texted me that Larry Cosgrove likes. I supsect there will be a relaxation towards the end of the month but also kind of this there would be a reload. Too bad we keep the heights high just southeast of Nova Scotia and have low heights over southern Greenland. Out threats continue to be for light event that might morph into moderate ones if we get really lucky. fwiw, 9Z SREF has moistened up for Tuesday to give us all .10+ with lower eastern shore .25+ (here it comes Snowdude!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 fwiw, 9Z SREF has moistened up for Tuesday to give us all .10+ with lower eastern shore .25+ (here it comes Snowdude!) That would be good. right now I use this site as my worry site. Looks like I'll be doing an article tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 That would be good. right now I use this site as my worry site. Looks like I'll be doing an article tomorrow. I've spent too much time tracking this thing but it's fun so who cares. Were right at that range where it models lock in on the fact that there really is an event and they have trended better in a hurry. Doubt this one goes poof. I love cold snow. We don't waste any and 1-3 is high impact because it sticks immediately. I'm stoked. I'm feeling better about scoring going into the relaxation too. It would make sense. Lose the suppressive height patterns and let something run over us. Just need some timing and luck. We might end up with some kind of ice event as heights lower in West. Ll cold will be tough to get rid of. My best wag for lala land is another 4-5 warmer period sometime in the first 10 days of Feb. And back to some sort of trough east/ridge west. I've all but given up on the Atlantic. If it changes great but Im not going to stress or worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm proud of you holding down the fort. Tuesday looks to be our best chance at something....and I agree..I'd take .08 and good ratios over wetter and 37 degrees. My b!tch posts are always few and far between. I don't let stuff get to me and when it does I typically use humor. I'm passing the weenie glasses for most of the day. You can fire up the fort with the money 12z suite coming up. I'm pretty happy for you dc guys with tues starting to look like a decent shot at something. You most likely will be below freezing the whole time. How about that right? The impossible might be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 fwiw, 9Z SREF has moistened up for Tuesday to give us all .10+ with lower eastern shore .25+ (here it comes Snowdude!) It gets those high numbers by having two members with over .75 liquid at DCA which isn't going to happen so I'd probably cut out those two members and then gt a new average. I'd be real happy with the GFS 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 My b!tch posts are always few and far between. I don't let stuff get to me and when it does I typically use humor. I'm passing the weenie glasses for most of the day. You can fire up the fort with the money 12z suite coming up. I'm pretty happy for you dc guys with tues starting to look like a decent shot at something. You most likely will be below freezing the whole time. How about that right? The impossible might be possible I enjoy reading your posts. You are realistic yet optimistic. I was going to post something to this effect back in December; between you and some of the other regular contributors, the clarity of analysis is excellent. I have learned more about weather in our area this winter than any other by reading your posts, usetobe's posts and articles, and then looking at the models for myself. So thanks to you and everyone else who makes this forum excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I've spent too much time tracking this thing but it's fun so who cares. Were right at that range where it models lock in on the fact that there really is an event and they have trended better in a hurry. Doubt this one goes poof. I love cold snow. We don't waste any and 1-3 is high impact because it sticks immediately. I'm stoked. I'm feeling better about scoring going into the relaxation too. It would make sense. Lose the suppressive height patterns and let something run over us. Just need some timing and luck. We might end up with some kind of ice event as heights lower in West. Ll cold will be tough to get rid of. My best wag for lala land is another 4-5 warmer period sometime in the first 10 days of Feb. And back to some sort of trough east/ridge west. I've all but given up on the Atlantic. If it changes great but Im not going to stress or worry about it. Recovering from my lower back giving out (again!) yesterday, but thought I'd try and fit in a comment... I think this is a pretty good sentiment. To be honest, I haven't looked too much at anything for the past couple of days so it would be nice if Tuesday kind of "sneaks up" on us. As you say, it looks below freezing even at DCA so if we score a generous 1-3" snowfall it will at least be pretty since it should stay on everything. Have just looked at the longer range in the GFS from the past day and briefly went back a couple of pages in here (where I can also see what's what in the Euro!). End of the month looks quite in flux, which is probably no real surprise. I admit some of the GFS op runs look abysmal toward the end. However, looking at those along with the GEFS mean pattern and what I've read in here (including what people say the Euro & its ensembles show), I don't think it's that horribly bad taking all that into consideration, nor a "winter cancel" situation. It seems reasonable that some kind of relaxation will occur in the next couple of weeks...which takes us to the end of January and first few days of February...but it looked like there's some reason to be hopeful for what's "on the horizon" beyond that. The Polar Vortex seems to want to stay on this side of the Pole and/or re-form around here this winter. If we can get some semblance of a block as we get toward February, that would be nice...we've been all but shut out from that so far. I'd have to think surely at some point we'll get a good block, and not when it's getting too late! So, pass me some of them there snow-colored weenie glasses if you've got any left!! (Edit: And yes, I purposely put a trademark symbol on my mention of the Polar Vortex for humor, given all the ridiculous media hype this year!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 you guys are all pretty dumb when it comes to posting in the right threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 you guys are all pretty dumb when it comes to posting in the right threads lol and someone just made ANOTHER thread for the same storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 lol and someone just made ANOTHER thread for the same storm.. This is the pattern thread. Wes insisted on a new thread, but alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 lol and someone just made ANOTHER thread for the same storm.. I made it all caps.. that might help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I made it all caps.. that might help They seem to want to see CLIPPER in the thread title I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 They seem to want to see CLIPPER in the thread title I guess. To be fair, the original title of "the arctic front storm" didn't make it obvious which "storm" was being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 To be fair, the original title of "the arctic front storm" didn't make it obvious which "storm" was being discussed. Considering when I made the thread I didn't see it. He should pay better attention, not that I care. Just want to discuss the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 To be fair, the original title of "the arctic front storm" didn't make it obvious which "storm" was being discussed.except its on the leading edge of the arctic air and the first post shows the Tuesday low. Honestly I don't care and the discussion is annoying me for some reason so I'll just turn it back to a pure cold discussion if it's easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 you guys are all pretty dumb when it comes to posting in the right threads lol and someone just made ANOTHER thread for the same storm.. HA...yeah!! The threads and thread names change around quicker than KU event advertised in the 384-h GFS! Hard to tell which one to go to. I did try to keep a mention of "late January" in my posts on this thread, but with several posts about the Clipper event early next week also in here, it's been a mess so I've included mention of that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Our subforum really knows how to keep a random discussion going We have good luck when Ian starts threads anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.