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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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I'm not worried about the long range of an op run. We've seen that change drastically over and over. It's the lack of southern stream interaction that I find disappointing. It's all but vanished. Euro has it but shunts it and never phases. This can all change of course but as we move forward in time I would like to see some semblance of moisture coming up from the gulf coast. Plenty of ensemble members have it but the getting pushed forward in time thing is not a trend we want to see at all.

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yeah..could be...I hope it is a reload...

Amazing how fast the long range went to crap. Few days ago the trough looked like it would retrograde and put us in a more favorable spot next week. That idea seems lost now on all the guidance and instead the trough eventually progresses east. After that I think with the epo reloading its unlikely we get a long warmup. I think we likely get another dump of cold into the plains or Midwest. If we can get a -nao then we could have a great pattern. If not at least we could get waves along the eastern edge of the arctic air. Always a risk they end up too far north for the dc area but sometimes that pattern can work out in feb. even feb 1994 had an epic sleet storm from that type of setup.
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Feb is basically spring. Winter is on borrowed time. :)

 

whatever weather...snow, tropical, severe, you pretty much have to chase if you wanna score...we suck at all 3 with occasional exceptions...

 

Spring last year was awesome...best spring I can ever remember and usually spring isnt that great here....

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whatever weather...snow, tropical, severe, you pretty much have to chase if you wanna score...we suck at all 3 with occasional exceptions...

 

Spring last year was awesome...best spring I can ever remember and usually spring isnt that great here....

Food for thought, is there really a place where you can get all 3 in high occurrence every year? I'd say DC is the closest to reaching it. There is no snow in florida and no tropical in the plains. See, it is possible to have some DC pride.

 

As we know, West Coast just sucks for weather especially nowadays its drought city over there.

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18z GEFS look nothing like the op. Vastly better. Plenty of good solutions over the next 10 days. Looks like some relaxation with a trough digging the west but it's shortlived. The way the gfs has been in the lr there is reason to doubt a trough out west from happening at all.

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We get this winter cancel crap every winter around January 18th, even in 2010.   ECMWF was close to a March 93 setup day 10. I wouldn't cancel winter yet unless you're JI and have already canceled it 12 times.  Even if we do get a pac torch for the rest of winter, California needs the rain, we just want the snow, there's a big difference.

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We get this winter cancel crap every winter around January 18th, even in 2010.   ECMWF was close to a March 93 setup day 10. I wouldn't cancel winter yet unless you're JI and have already canceled it 12 times.  Even if we do get a pac torch for the rest of winter, California needs the rain, we just want the snow, there's a big difference.

But then they will get too much rain, and then mudslides. That place is a natural disaster waiting to happen. But its pretty.

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whatever weather...snow, tropical, severe, you pretty much have to chase if you wanna score...we suck at all 3 with occasional exceptions...

Spring last year was awesome...best spring I can ever remember and usually spring isnt that great here....

Yeah we are not the greatest at weather in general though we do get lots of sun for northeast city so there is that. Our biggest weather problem is that we can technically get a very high end of all types which many other mediocre weather cities can't say. If sort of feeds the craziness by making us know it can happen even if it's a low probability event at any time.

Obviously dumb to cancel winter today or something but if we do come out of this pattern then go warm for a while we are through most of peak snow climo. In all likelihood most have seen their coldest overall temp of the winter as well though perhaps one day ahead will test that if we can get snow or something.

But March is the new best winter month so there is that going for us.

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Food for thought, is there really a place where you can get all 3 in high occurrence every year? I'd say DC is the closest to reaching it. There is no snow in florida and no tropical in the plains. See, it is possible to have some DC pride.

As we know, West Coast just sucks for weather especially nowadays its drought city over there.

Tropical is dumb for the most part. Denver has it all or all within a few hour drive. It's also a lee side climate but to a much more extreme degree. They aren't getting many 2-3' snowstorms though..
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Yeah we are not the greatest at weather in general though we do get lots of sun for northeast city so there is that. Our biggest weather problem is that we can technically get a very high end of all types which many other mediocre weather cities can't say. If sort of feeds the craziness by making us know it can happen even if it's a low probability event at any time.

Obviously dumb to cancel winter today or something but if we do come out of this pattern then go warm for a while we are through most of peak snow climo. In all likelihood most have seen their coldest overall temp of the winter as well though perhaps one day ahead will test that if we can get snow or something.

But March is the new best winter month so there is that going for us.

Indeed, March was the best winter month last year, dumping 24.5 inches of snow to your west, while the rest of the winter squeezed 4 inches from the clouds!!!  It occasionally happens... Spring sometimes happens in February for a groundhog named Phil...... 

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For all the talk of how bad the gfs is a pattern like that might give the area a much better chance of a big snow. This cold pattern is way too suppressive especially with a +nao. With a trough to our west cold will still be around to tap and if we can time a low with a high it could work. Its not a great pattern and less chance of snow in general but probably a greater chance of a big storm.

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Tropical is dumb for the most part. Denver has it all or all within a few hour drive. It's also a lee side climate but to a much more extreme degree. They aren't getting many 2-3' snowstorms though..

Nice thing about Denver is, it can snow from Sept to May, but it rarely is brutally cold longer than a few days. And for the most part in winter its mild, except when it snows. Just the opposite of here- warm and dry, cold and snowy.

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For all the talk of how bad the gfs is a pattern like that might give the area a much better chance of a big snow. This cold pattern is way too suppressive especially with a +nao. With a trough to our west cold will still be around to tap and if we can time a low with a high it could work. Its not a great pattern and less chance of snow in general but probably a greater chance of a big storm.

we can't get "any" storm in this pattern, let alone a big one

I'm starting to think maybe it doesn't snow much in these parts  :wacko2:

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18z GEFS look nothing like the op. Vastly better. Plenty of good solutions over the next 10 days. Looks like some relaxation with a trough digging the west but it's shortlived. The way the gfs has been in the lr there is reason to doubt a trough out west from happening at all.

Euro ensembles have reverted to a cold look through the end of the month for what that is worth.  Still looks dry and would only support clipper type events which so far have been very underwhelming. 

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