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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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It's looking like I may have been too optimistic about our snow chances.  In 2009 we did get a 0.50 incher at DCA.  If the GFS is right that may be our goal.

Agreed. I don't see how we get anything large. Looks cold and dry at least through early February. But by mid February, sun angle starts becoming an issue.

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Look at the clipper today that was modeled to gives us at least a dusting a few days ago. What is causing it to completely wash out. Radar looks great in Indiana heading into Ohio. I've seen many worse looking clippers that had at least one band make it over the mountains. Now there is not not one model that shows us getting a flake tonight.

The low goes to our north so we have westerly downsloping winds which act to dry it out.  Someone still could see flakes but we don't usually see much with the westerly winds.

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Gefs in the lr is mixed but not supportive of the op. At least half keep cold nearby or overhead.

Euro ens run is lagging on Wxbell. Only out to 96. Doesn't like Tue-wed much at all. Takes the clipper south of us but few if any members show anything of significance. We'll see how it goes for later chances.

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as others have mentioned, pretty much all guidance at this point looks bad after day 10...I think we have through next weekend or so to score for now....after that great chance of a ridge in the east..not sure for how long

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as others have mentioned, pretty much all guidance at this point looks bad after day 10...I think we have through next weekend or so to score for now....after that great chance of a ridge in the east..not sure for how long

fine by me.....we need to reshuffle the deck because the hand we have right now sux

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fine by me.....we need to reshuffle the deck because the hand we have right now sux

 

 

I dont think anyone should punt this week for a small event...especially middle to end of the week...9 out of the 10 Euro ensemble analogs have snow in the 6-10 day period..7 were minor...2 were decent...it would be ashame if we get through next weekend with nothing to show for the next 7 -8 days

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as others have mentioned, pretty much all guidance at this point looks bad after day 10...I think we have through next weekend or so to score for now....after that great chance of a ridge in the east..not sure for how long

12z was a bad euro ens run. Driest for our area yet through d12. And the sick part is that the run is pretty wet after that....but above normal temps..lolol

We are right in between precip chances the whole time. NS stays north and SS slides below south with no phasing. Much can change because timing is never resolved well even 4 days in advance but today will go down as a really bad day in modeland.

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Mount Holly's take on the evolving pattern and model variability...

 

AS MUCH AS MANY PEOPLE WOULD ROOT FOR
THE GFS TO BE CORRECT IN WEEK2 ITS A KNOWN MODEL BIAS OF IT TO
BREAK DOWN WEST COAST RIDGES TOO FAST. THE CURRENT 12Z ECMWF RUN
REPRESENTS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE WRT TO COLD BETWEEN THE
TOO WARM GFS AND THE EXTREMELY COLD OP RUN IT HAD OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS OBVIOUS LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE PV DIPS
WITH TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. MOST OF THIS IS BEYOND OUR
DETERMINISTIC PACKAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE REASONABLY
THERMALLY CLOSE THRU DAY 7.

AS FAR AS PCPN SYSTEMS GO, THE DP/DT ON TUESDAY SYSTEM IS FOR A
STRONGER LESS PROGRESSIVE 500MB TROF. THIS IN A WAY LEANS BACK TO
WHAT THE ECMWF HAD A FEW DAYS AGO. AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH TODAY`S
SYSTEM (TOWARD THE ROBUST END OF THE SPECTRUM) AND TOMORROW`S
SYSTEM (PRETTY MUCH A NON ENTITY NOW), THERE WILL BE GIVE AND TAKE
BETWEEN TUE AND THU`S OUTCOMES WITH ONE SAPPING THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM THE OTHER. WE ARE LEANING THIS FCST PACKAGE TOWARD THE
TUE SYSTEM AS VERIFYING STRONGER AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE
TIGHTER. SAT`S CFP (AND BRIEF RETURN TO NORMAL? TEMPS) IS HANDLED
FAIRLY SIMILAR GIVEN THE TEMPORAL SCALE INVOLVED. THEN MUCH COLDER
AGAIN.

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When can we go back to the better pattern that we had earlier in December that gave much of the area a good snow? This "greatest pattern in years" blows.

This coming pattern so far is just a modeled pattern...just like the bad pattern coming is just a modeled one. I for one don't have confidence that either one will happen...as modeled. I think maybe a week ago Matt thought the last 10 days of January would be warm...something weird is going on I think

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This coming pattern so far is just a modeled pattern...just like the bad pattern coming is just a modeled one. I for one don't have confidence that either one will happen...as modeled. I think maybe a week ago Matt thought the last 10 days of January would be warm...something weird is going on I think

i'm not sure when I said it, but i did....It was with significant lead time...This general pattern has been modeled well....a lot of this stuff about it being a great snow pattern was coming from people up north....10+ days out is certainly no lock for a pattern, but the signs have increased in the last 24+ hours that after say day 10-12 the pattern relaxes...could be wrong of course...

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When can we go back to the better pattern that we had earlier in December that gave much of the area a good snow? This "greatest pattern in years" blows.

 

 a lot of times this stuff comes from people who dont live here or dont understand our climo and what patterns work for us....or even understand how to read a pattern at all...early december had a southern stream...it has faded as I predicted

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When can we go back to the better pattern that we had earlier in December that gave much of the area a good snow? This "greatest pattern in years" blows.

That pattern wasn't great either. The upcoming one may be more flawed, time will tell. It will be colder, for longer and that alone gives us chances. But all this just underscores how important it is to have the one missing piece we cant seem to get, our beloved -NAO. Not counting a Nino as that was never on the table for this winter.

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When can we go back to the better pattern that we had earlier in December that gave much of the area a good snow? This "greatest pattern in years" blows.

I not sure who thought it the greatest in year.  You scored well early but DC and lots of us I 95 guys got squadush.    I thought the pattern for snow in DC at DCA was the best this year since it is very similar to the pattern where it got 1.9" from a storm earlier this month but never thought it a great pattern.  For that we need a negative anomaly south of Nova Scotia and a positive across much of greenland usually including the southern part. 

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 a lot of times this stuff comes from people who dont live here or dont understand our climo and what patterns work for us....or even understand how to read a pattern at all...early december had a southern stream...it has faded as I predicted

Yeah and that gave only areas NW real snow, and it took some serious good timing for that to occur. I will take my chances with a pattern that gives us prolonged cold. We have had a ton of wet and mild this winter, and got lucky a few times with transient cold + moisture. If at the end of the next 2 weeks, we warm without having gotten an inch of snow, I will still be ok with it because I am sick of rain and soggy ground. And my car will be clean for 2 weeks.

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Yeah and that gave only areas NW real snow, and it took some serious good timing for that to occur. I will take my chances with a pattern that gives us prolonged cold. We have had a ton of wet and mild this winter, and got lucky a few times with transient cold + moisture. If at the end of the next 2 weeks, we warm without having gotten an inch of snow, I will still be ok with it because I am sick of rain and soggy ground. And my car will be clean for 2 weeks.

 

we are probably going to warm before 2 weeks...

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IMO a deep east coast trough is not the pattern I want to see. We should have a second prime meridian that rums through Charleston WV because it seems the trough axis always goes through there. There's plenty of snow falling at our latitude. It just happens to be over the Atlantic Ocean. The pattern in Dec had a bit of a se ridge. Cold air could bleed in, the gulf was open, we had a bit of a southern stream.

I guess the simplest wish would be to back that western ridge more west.

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The NWS computer-generated 6-10 day forecast is not too encouraging.  It has below normal temperatures and precipitation for our area.  New England has below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The transition from below normal to above normal precipitation is abrupt with above normal precipitation forecast for western PA and NY.

 

The 8-14 day forecast does look better, the cold relaxes (at least according to NAEFS) and precipitation chances for our area increase to normal (NWS).  If a clipper doesn't pan out, hopefully, we'll get something during the transition. 

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End of GFS run is an absolute abortion of winter

It looks like an abortion WxWatcher, an abortion.  Just like our entire winter is an abortion.  Something that's unsnowy and winter cancel.  GFS didn't want our cold and snow, WxWatcher.  GFS won't bring another modeled snowstorm into this DC area.  GFS had it cold/dry alternating with warm/rainy, because this must all end!!

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