stormtracker Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Western s/w is a lot stronger this run....let's see what it's gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Nice, gfs is trying for Tue-wed. Getting close to something modest. In our sorry world what is deemed modest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 In our sorry world what is deemed modest? 1" worst 4" best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 1" worst 4" best. Your best is gonna be tough reach with a clipper unless somehow it really gets jazzed up. I'm hoping I can squeeze out 1". though I wouldn't be surprised by a narrow 1-3 somewhere not far way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 worst GFS run in years.....i think its time to pull the plug on winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Your best is gonna be tough reach with a clipper unless somehow it really gets jazzed up. I'm hoping I can squeeze out 1". though I wouldn't be surprised by a narrow 1-3 somewhere not far way. 30:1 arctic fluff. Lol Man. Gfs op is becoming insistent that we relax and flood the conus with Pac air sooner rather than later. Yikes if its on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 30:1 arctic fluff. Lol Man. Gfs op is becoming insistent that we relax and flood the conus with Pac air sooner rather than later. Yikes if its on to something ive seen the GFS breakdown the western ridge way to early time and time again but its probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS is a miss with the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 worst GFS run in years.....i think its time to pull the plug on winter Gotta agree with you...horrible run...nothing even close...not even a sloppy mix rainstorm...before we know it the words "sun angle" will be introduced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's amazing how the models always **** on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's amazing how the models always **** on us I'm only focused on how week 1 fails. I'll worry about how week 2 fails in another week. I'm not worried tbh. My guess is we relax but not nearly as fast as the 12z gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If the pattern relaxes any more its going to lose control of its bowels and crap on the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm only focused on how week 1 fails. I'll worry about how week 2 fails in another week. I'm not worried tbh. My guess is we relax but not nearly as fast as the 12z gfs op. I was just thinking the same thing. No need to panic over a couple bad runs from day 8 onward. We've seen this countless times when models abruptly change patterns too fast. I agree, let's just see how the Monday to Friday period plays out especially the possible tuesday ( which is looking better ) event and go from there. Hopefully by this time tomorrow today's GFS long range will just be a blip and tuesday will continue to look better. My guess is we do relax some but not before another major shot comes down early in the week of the 27th. As we head into Feb. who knows where we go, but there still should be enough cold air around on our side and in Canada, close enough to be tapped. The best time for blocking and a -nao is Feb. I would be surprised if we don't see at least one decent period with blocking so it my as well be in Feb. When blocking occurs in our wheelhouse it's the only time climo says it's hard not to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 worst GFS run in years.....i think its time to pull the plug on winter Haven't you learned yet? The GFS is garbage. IGNORE IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Well, at least the EPO will be rockin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's amazing how the models always **** on us After that they f***** that and a***** this all over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 After that they f***** that and a***** this all over us. Lol, this weather is serious biliousness. Bad atlantic is the source of problems, many forget how important it is south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro 216 looks like it's gearing up for something major if the southern stream will dig a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro 216 looks like it's gearing up for something major if the southern stream will dig a little! its show a storm 10 days away now for 4 straight days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro is a door to door disaster of mis timed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Curious how the GFS has drastically flipped flopped a couple of times in the last three or four days especially in the long range. We've had all sorts of encouraging commentary but now it's all doom and gloom. I know some of the guidance goes hand in hand with what the models are depicting at the moment, but not all of it. Maybe we have one (or more) final flip/flop for this two week period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 its show a storm 10 days away now for 4 straight days All we need is for it to verify once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 horrible runs...looking more like 2009...maybe we can squeeze one small event out of it.....cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 horrible runs...looking more like 2009...maybe we can squeeze one small event out of it.....cold and dry It's looking like I may have been too optimistic about our snow chances. In 2009 we did get a 0.50 incher at DCA. If the GFS is right that may be our goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's looking like I may have been too optimistic about our snow chances. In 2009 we did get a 0.50 incher at DCA. If the GFS is right that may be our goal. yeah...we got a 2" event on the 27th too...which was a decent event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 yeah...we got a 2" event on the 27th too...which was a decent event..... Then about a week later came that weird set up where some kind of inverted trough gave parts of southeastern pa up to 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Despite what the 12z GFS shows, it looks to stay generally cold for the next 2 weeks and maybe beyond that. Hard to imagine we wont get at least a few shots at a light to moderate event if we are cold for that long. No sense going bipolar with the models run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Despite what the 12z GFS shows, it looks to stay generally cold for the next 2 weeks and maybe beyond that. Hard to imagine we wont get at least a few shots at a light to moderate event if we are cold for that long. No sense going bipolar with the models run to run. no it's not after the last 3 years I sorta expect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Despite what the 12z GFS shows, it looks to stay generally cold for the next 2 weeks and maybe beyond that. Hard to imagine we wont get at least a few shots at a light to moderate event if we are cold for that long. No sense going bipolar with the models run to run. You take away the bipolar, you lose 2/3 of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 no it's not after the last 3 years I sorta expect it Look at the clipper today that was modeled to gives us at least a dusting a few days ago. What is causing it to completely wash out. Radar looks great in Indiana heading into Ohio. I've seen many worse looking clippers that had at least one band make it over the mountains. Now there is not not one model that shows us getting a flake tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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