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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Your best is gonna be tough reach with a clipper unless somehow it really gets jazzed up. I'm hoping I can squeeze out 1". though I wouldn't be surprised by a narrow 1-3 somewhere not far way.

30:1 arctic fluff. Lol

Man. Gfs op is becoming insistent that we relax and flood the conus with Pac air sooner rather than later. Yikes if its on to something

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30:1 arctic fluff. Lol

Man. Gfs op is becoming insistent that we relax and flood the conus with Pac air sooner rather than later. Yikes if its on to something

ive seen the GFS breakdown the western ridge way to early time and time again but its probably right

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I'm only focused on how week 1 fails. I'll worry about how week 2 fails in another week.

I'm not worried tbh. My guess is we relax but not nearly as fast as the 12z gfs op.

I was just thinking the same thing. No need to panic over a couple bad runs from day 8 onward. We've seen this countless times when models abruptly change patterns too fast. I agree, let's just see how the Monday to Friday period plays out especially the possible tuesday ( which is looking better ) event and go from there. Hopefully by this time tomorrow today's GFS long range will just be a blip and tuesday will continue to look better. My guess is we do relax some but not before another major shot comes down early in the week of the 27th.

 

As we head into Feb. who knows where we go, but there still should be enough cold air around on our side and in Canada, close enough to be tapped. The best time for blocking and a -nao is Feb. I would be surprised if we don't see at least one decent period with blocking so it my as well be in Feb. When blocking occurs in our wheelhouse it's the only time climo says it's hard not to cash in.

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Curious how the GFS has drastically flipped flopped a couple of times in the last three or four days especially in the long range. We've had all sorts of encouraging commentary but now it's all doom and gloom. I know some of the guidance goes hand in hand with what the models are depicting at the moment, but not all of it. Maybe we have one (or more) final flip/flop for this two week period coming up.

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It's looking like I may have been too optimistic about our snow chances.  In 2009 we did get a 0.50 incher at DCA.  If the GFS is right that may be our goal. 

 

yeah...we got a 2" event on the 27th too...which was a decent event.....

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Despite what the 12z GFS shows, it looks to stay generally cold for the next 2 weeks and maybe beyond that. Hard to imagine we wont get at least a few shots at a light to moderate event if we are cold for that long. No sense going bipolar with the models run to run. 

no it's not after the last 3 years

I sorta expect it

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Despite what the 12z GFS shows, it looks to stay generally cold for the next 2 weeks and maybe beyond that. Hard to imagine we wont get at least a few shots at a light to moderate event if we are cold for that long. No sense going bipolar with the models run to run.

You take away the bipolar, you lose 2/3 of this forum.

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no it's not after the last 3 years

I sorta expect it

Look at the clipper today that was modeled to gives us at least a dusting a few days ago. What is causing it to completely wash out. Radar looks great in Indiana heading into Ohio. I've seen many worse looking clippers that had at least one band make it over the mountains. Now there is not not one model that shows us getting a flake tonight.

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