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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Is this a banter thread?

Might as well be a banter thread... for most there nothing happening with this pattern.

 

I think that may be why people are talking about planes, guitars, buses, cameras, sports, etc. in the banter thread.

 

I wish we were discussing real events.

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I see a lot to like in the long range on the gfs. Much better Atlantic pattern and highs to the north. Yea the surface looks warm but I call bull on that given the setup.

yeah, even the NAO looked at least mildly negative with a building ridge

nonetheless, it is frustrating for weenies looking for modeled snow if not the real stuff

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yeah, even the NAO looked at least mildly negative with a building ridge

nonetheless, it is frustrating for weenies looking for modeled snow if not the real stuff

Now the 6z is a true train wreck. 10 days of ns dominated nothing then suddenly the pacific pattern that has been driving everything just breaks down but the Atlantic remains awful and we go full on pacific zonal torch. Entire conus would get warm. It's just one run past 10 days and as long as that warm pool remains in the north PAC I don't buy a solution the just breaks down a very stable pattern.
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Now the 6z is a true train wreck. 10 days of ns dominated nothing then suddenly the pacific pattern that has been driving everything just breaks down but the Atlantic remains awful and we go full on pacific zonal torch. Entire conus would get warm. It's just one run past 10 days and as long as that warm pool remains in the north PAC I don't buy a solution the just breaks down a very stable pattern.

yep, neither the GEFS, Euro or Euro ens. agree, though there are signs of a relaxation in temps between days 11-15 and -EPO looks to rebuild starting day 15+ on Euro ens. per some posts in other forums

idk, we keep ordering steak and getting served shiat sandwiches

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yep, neither the GEFS, Euro or Euro ens. agree, though there are signs of a relaxation in temps between days 11-15 and -EPO looks to rebuild starting day 15+ on Euro ens. per some posts in other forums

idk, we keep ordering steak and getting served shiat sandwiches

You get what mutha nature feeds you. Seriously though, I could care less what any one GFS op run serves up. Right now its slop. We are still a few days from the initial arctic cold front, and there may be some snow showers/light snow with that, Chances for a real storm are going to likely come next weekend when there is a bit of relaxation with the first cold shot. And thats a long way off to expect the models to consistently show a storm threat. Yesterdays 12z GEFS gave hints of whats possible though.

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I wonder if Tuesday might give us a little sumpn-sumpn.

I was just going to post on that one. Consistent trends towards development south of us tues/wed. It's starting to look like a decent chance for 1-3 / 2-4. It would be a quick hitter if it works out but could be an energetic shot with some serious cold behind it.

I have a feeling there be a lot of talk about this one in coming days.

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We are just chasing a ghost. Once a potential storm with a southern stream gets inside 192 it disappears.

I'm not really concerned what any model is showing for next weekend. So much happens with ul flow before it that we won't have any idea for days. The idea is there for a decent event. That's all that we can say for now.

We barely have confidence in 4-5 day leads. Flow is rippin.

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I was just going to post on that one. Consistent trends towards development south of us tues/wed. It's starting to look like a decent chance for 1-3 / 2-4. It would be a quick hitter if it works out but could be an energetic shot with some serious cold behind it.

I have a feeling there be a lot of talk about this one in coming days.

Let's hope it trends that way. I would be very happy with a 1-3 event.

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I was just going to post on that one. Consistent trends towards development south of us tues/wed. It's starting to look like a decent chance for 1-3 / 2-4. It would be a quick hitter if it works out but could be an energetic shot with some serious cold behind it.

I have a feeling there be a lot of talk about this one in coming days.

that vort on the NAM at 63 hrs has a shot if for no other reason there doesn't appear to be anything on its heals

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Good to see some potential on the field. Thanks to all the knowledgeable folks for the great insight.

My confidence of an event is less than 50%. Just looking at all the guidance the trend is to put this one in the best position to pop a low south of us. It's so hard to resolve these things as you go out in time. Just by looking at the 18z-0z-6z GEFS members you can see the marked trend. It has my eye because now under 100hrs or so and trending better means the model is keying better. We'll see what 12z ensembles bring. If it's another step in the right direction it's time so ante up with all in by monday morning.

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One more bright spot is the euro ensembles definitely getting more interested in the 24-25th. Decent increase in members showing 2+ with a few showing 6+. . There is a decent spread with both events that the op is showing. First one is NS only and second one brings moisture from the gulf but there but how they may play out is far from resolved with many variables.

I would hardly call the next 7 days boring at the very least. Euro ens members continue with precip chances through d15.

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I don't like the pattern at the beginning of Feb too much.  the GEFS superensembles showing the above normal height stripe along the gulf suggests lows  are lot more likely to go to our north than south starting towards the 30th or so.  I think it's just a temporary blip in the pattern as we still have a nice neg AO on the euro ensembles but for a short period we may get some pac air into the u.s. again.  I'm interested some in the GFS clipper at 84 hrs or so though the euro ens seem more interested in the 24 or 25th. 

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I don't like the pattern at the beginning of Feb too much. the GEFS superensembles showing the above normal height stripe along the gulf suggests lows are lot more likely to go to our north than south starting towards the 30th or so. I think it's just a temporary blip in the pattern as we still have a nice neg AO on the euro ensembles but for a short period we may get some pac air into the u.s. again. I'm interested some in the GFS clipper at 84 hrs or so though the euro ens seem more interested in the 24 or 25th.

We'll see how things go going into Feb. I don't like recent trends but who knows. We might end up with an mixy ice storm as low level cold is on it's way out but that's just a total wag based on what the ensembles show. I would hope that if we have some semblance of blocking that the ensembles might be a little quick to relax. I'm so focused on the next 10 days or so I don't really care much. If we can score a decent event, a warm spell won't be bad at all. If we get blanked and then get warm/wet this forum will completely melt down.

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