psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Mid week is still in play. Globals should finally start to agree on "something" by the end of the weekendNeed the h5 trough to dig further west and separate a peice from the pv like the nam and sref show. That also forces the high to drop further west. Nothing's happening if the high is in eastern Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 BECS Storm for Mrtyle Beach? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think the nam is focused on the wrong vort though. There are two waves and I think it's the second that has more potential but keeping the front closer like that and digging the trough further west is a good sign either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think the nam is focused on the wrong vort though. There are two waves and I think it's the second that has more potential but keeping the front closer like that and digging the trough further west is a good sign either way And at least it diverts our attention from the 800 lb elephant in the room being the SE ridge the models are advertising for later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And at least it diverts our attention from the 800 lb elephant in the room being the SE ridge the models are advertising for later onWell everyone is so busy crying over the op runs they didn't notice the 6z gefs is actually great in the long range. The eps isn't bad either. Check out hr 277 on gefs. Who cares what an op run shows at 200 hours. This battle is far from lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I would take NAM @ 84 hours in a heart beat, think it would lead to a snowstorm midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well everyone is so busy crying over the op runs they didn't notice the 6z gefs is actually great in the long range. The eps isn't bad either. Check out hr 277 on gefs. Who cares what an op run shows at 200 hours. This battle is far from lost. Agree. If by some chance the NAM is on to something for Wed and this thing moves NW it will prove it...if I were in S PA or N MD I would be more optimistic though...Westminister MD is the where I need to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well everyone is so busy crying over the op runs they didn't notice the 6z gefs is actually great in the long range. The eps isn't bad either. Check out hr 277 on gefs. Who cares what an op run shows at 200 hours. This battle is far from lost. I'm not worried at all. All this se ridge talk sounds much worse than reality. The se ridge is nothing more than return flow from a deep arctic airmass because the high slides off the coast. Big deal. It's highly unlikely to be a stable feature considering high latitude height pattern and another monster -epo. It's nothing more than a transient part of the pattern and it was expected. And we will prob get some rain in the next 10 days. Hardly unusual. Ensemble guidance looks fine for future snow chances. Could be a fun feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We should be getting close to the time that the models finally settle in on a solution with the mid-week storm. Maybe 12Z today will show a good hint at what will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Glad to see the mid-week potential is still there. If we can't get the storm, my second wish would be that the latest Canadian model run verify...15-17" in NC and SC?! Parts of Louisiana get 6"?! Would like to see some video of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm proud of this board...in years past, the 84 hour NAM would have blown this thread up. Anyway, back to reality....I'm with Bob Chill...there's still some hope for midweek, but I need to see something...anything by Monday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS op absolutely hates this storm. Or non storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm proud of this board...in years past, the 84 hour NAM would have blown this thread up. Anyway, back to reality....I'm with Bob Chill...there's still some hope for midweek, but I need to see something...anything by Monday at least. Well, this morning's GFS wasn't what you were looking for....it really has a bad look for the wed non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well, this morning's GFS wasn't what you were looking for....it really has a bad look for the wed non event. Yeah, GFS wants no part of it. The NAM/SREF are world's apart from the GFS. NAM/SREF also have no other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm starting to wish I had gone with normal or even above normal for the 1st week of Feb instead of normal to slightly below. Last night's operational Euro was really warm which fit some of the analogs from yesterday while others were cold. The ens mean temps on day 9 and 10 are quite a big colder than the Euro operational which is an outlier but the pattern does favor lows going to our north more than to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm starting to wish I had gone with normal or even above normal for the 1st week of Feb instead of normal to slightly below. Last night's operational Euro was really warm which fit some of the analogs from yesterday while others were cold. The ens mean temps on day 9 and 10 are quite a big colder than the Euro operational which is an outlier but the pattern does favor lows going to our north more than to our south. It's a tough call either way. A warm spell was all but guaranteed first 10 days of the month. Current progs bring it quicker now. I'm not sure the clues were strong enough when you wrote the article. It can easily get pushed back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice overrunning look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 SE ridge is a nightmare. Probably above average temps February 2nd-6th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice overrunning look. 150.gif for rain, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice overrunning look. 150.gif Yes it is if you like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Agree. If by some chance the NAM is on to something for Wed and this thing moves NW it will prove it...if I were in S PA or N MD I would be more optimistic though...Westminister MD is the where I need to moveYea I am frustrated up in central pa this year. My old location in md is over 30" now and I'm stuck at 15" and all from small fringe snows. I've managed to miss out in every direction and today's snow seems to be falling apart here also. Just not my year. I'm still paying for my 100" in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yea I am frustrated up in central pa this year. My old location in md is over 30" now and I'm stuck at 15" and all from small fringe snows. I've managed to miss out in every direction and today's snow seems to be falling apart here also. Just not my year. I'm still paying for my 100" in 2010. Not mine either...best snows have been just north of me in MD....this upcoming pattern looks to be a battle between the strong low in Canada and the SE ridge...you do get overrunning it's just what side you are on...shame with so much cold air around although I don't think the final chapter has been written on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 two things stick out to me about the NAM... 1) shortwave #2 is much faster dropping thru Canada in each successive run and also much stronger. 2) The SS energy fully phases as opposed to the GFS which leaves a piece behind. The GFS also has that second shortwave, but evolves it in to the next vortex as opposed to trying to phase it with the develop storm over NE (extrapolating from 84 hour NAM). Three key things to watch in the models: 1) Does the PV scoot northeast faster than currently indicated? 2) Does the SS energy phase in fully or does a piece get left behind? 3) How much separation is there (if any between the first and second polar shortwave)... the best case scenario for us is none... they phase early... if that happens... we have a KU on our hands... if it doesn't phase it acts like a kicker, and we have varying degrees of success depending on the first two factors. This is not anywhere close to done evolving. Today's 12Z Euro will be very interesting to me, even though the Euro hasn't been stellar late ETA: Just looked at the 00Z Euro. Its up to its old tricks of leaving energy behind in the SW so the trough ends up very progressive. Take away that bias and the 00z euro looks alot like the 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The active "winter" pattern in Feb still shows up on the GFS just delayed by a couple of days. Cold air retreats then comes back. Had to happen some time. I like our chances of something significant occuring during pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It'll be interesting to see if todays CPC 6/10 8/14 day outlook changes dramatically today (yes I know it is computer generated over the weekend). As of yesterday It called for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation during the first week of February. They used 15% 6z GFS, 30% 6Z ensembles, 15% Canadian 0z, and 40% 12z European ensembles. The NAEFS had colder than normal temperatures over the Great Lakes area and warmer than normal temperatures over the ATlantic. We were in between. Perhaps a cutter look. The NAEFS did have a strong signal for precipitation in the Feb 4-6 time frame. Temperatures during the Feb 4-6 time period were seasonal or slightly below. ... and yes, last night's ECMWF run was a disaster, especially for the vast majority of our SE friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hearing EURO is whiff for VA north. Meh. Gimme the GFS happy hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Who has Euro pls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Euro is very little QPF anywhere it does precipitate, which is nowhere north of a southern South Carolina to New Orleans line. ETA: Jacksonville jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 No mention of west based block day 10 on EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Euro is very little QPF anywhere it does precipitate, which is nowhere north of a southern South Carolina to New Orleans line. ETA: Jacksonville jackpot ARE YOU saying snow in Jacksonville FL? Whaaat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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