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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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the GFS and GGEM are horrible tonight for next weekend...im sure Euro will be worse

 

After looking at next weekend on tonight's Euro, I'm thinking I'm going to puke.  It's literally a horrifically abysmal train wrech.  And that's an understatement.  We go from PV extending hudson bay to carolinas, to no trace of cold air in north america - in the span of 48 hours.

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Gfs ggem and ecmwf all warm the mid Atlantic dramatically and say rain in the 6-10 day period. I don't buy it 100% yet but it has shaken my belief in how the pattern would evolve. However both the euro ensemble and gefs bring the cold back in the 10-15 day. Perhaps we end up where we want but have to take a different route to get there.

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6z gfs showing 60 near the end of the run...this should be fun to watch today ;)

 

Not sure anyone would worry about what it was showing near 384 (well, except maybe Ji  ;) ). The problem is things go downhill quickly as soon as day 6 and don't really improve after that.

 

No time to panic yet I guess, but it's kind of troubling as the OP GFS isn't alone in depicting this scenario

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Not sure anyone would worry about what it was showing near 384 (well, except maybe Ji ;) ). The problem is things go downhill quickly as soon as day 6 and don't really improve after that.

 

No time to panic yet I guess, but it's kind of troubling as the OP GFS isn't alone in depicting this scenario.

There has been plenty of discussion about a relaxation of the cold in early February it looks like the models may be picking up on that now. But we have also seen that most of the modeled warm ups have fallen short so we may have that plus models tend to break down a pattern too fast or rush one in too fast so we will see. My post is more about the who and you nailed that fast....hold on tight!!

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We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm

Need some blocking dude. PNA relaxation was inevitable. PV wasnt going to stay displaced south indefinitely, and that kinda sucks for snow anyway unless you love clippers. Hopefully the warm/wet ends up only lasting a few days. That has been the pattern this winter when we do warm.. I am ready for a -AO -NAO pattern. Get the PV back up north and weaker, and lets build some heights over Greenland. Not easy to get a big snow event any other way around here.

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Rain is inevitable. Didn't think it would come as quick as what the recent runs are showing. Could be rushing it or could be right. Good bit of spread in the medium range.

EPS showing a -ao/nao combo in early Feb with a lot of spread. I don't think d7+ is resolved at all so I'm not worried. Whatever happens happens.

One thing is looking likely. It's going to be wet in early Feb. The ma always rides the line when there's chances. So we wait.

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Gfs ggem and ecmwf all warm the mid Atlantic dramatically and say rain in the 6-10 day period. I don't buy it 100% yet but it has shaken my belief in how the pattern would evolve. However both the euro ensemble and gefs bring the cold back in the 10-15 day. Perhaps we end up where we want but have to take a different route to get there.

I recall Matt mentioning to Wes the other day how surprisingly half of the supercomputer analogs showed dates that were followed by warm ups....I guess it was onto something (with the caveat that it hasn't happened yet)

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I recall Matt mentioning to Wes the other day how surprisingly half of the supercomputer analogs showed dates that were followed by warm ups....I guess it was onto something (with the caveat that it hasn't happened yet)

Yea in the last 3 days the analogs went from pretty good to awful. Yesterday's none were particularly good for snow and most weren't even that cold anymore.
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