Heisy Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z DGEX throws the mid-week storm up the coast for a SECS from South Carolina to NE (not that it means much, but I guess it would be a best case scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The Facebook monster ruined him. He's all legit and stuff now. Ah, I don't mess around wirh facebook much because I waste enough time doing others things already. If Iwas was on facebook I would troll his page incessantly until he comes back around this old self and things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z DGEX throws the mid-week storm up the coast for a SECS from South Carolina to NE (not that it means much, but I guess it would be a best case scenario) 126.gif 132.gif 138.gif I would love me some SECS up and down the coast. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z DGEX throws the mid-week storm up the coast for a SECS from South Carolina to NE (not that it means much, but I guess it would be a best case scenario)Has the DIGDUG ever been right for the right reasons at this lead? I don't even look at it unless it's posted. Its like a random weather map algorithm based on sports scores or something On the flip side, 12z gefs was a big step from 6z with its members. There's a couple solutions that might do it and they seem to have different timing in the flow by a day or day and a half. I think 18z gfs was initialized with surface data from the wrong year. So I'm tossin it like the cras. Well, unless its shows snow. Then I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curly Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm not sure which is cooler, the fish or the owl....I guess the owl since I don't usually see them but do hear them on occasion but that is a nice striper. PM sent........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Has the DIGDUG ever been right for the right reasons at this lead? I don't even look at it unless it's posted. Its like a random weather map algorithm based on sports scores or something On the flip side, 12z gefs was a big step from 6z with its members. There's a couple solutions that might do it and they seem to have different timing in the flow by a day or day and a half. I think 18z gfs was initialized with surface data from the wrong year. So I'm tossin it like the cras. Well, unless its shows snow. Then I'm in. DGEX will be best known for its late JAN. 2010 prediction of 36" of snow on the ground at the end of its range, which was mid FEB, and all of us at Easternwx laughed....but it turned out to be right, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z EPS snow output still hangin on with enough members for wed-thurs (9 or showing at least 2") to keep it on the radar. Secondary models like the jma and dgex apparently keep it alive too. 18z gfs/gefs want nothing to do with it. I suppose we have until Sunday night to get a clearer idea of the track if a storm even exists. I keep thinking back to all the previous cold pushes not being as deep into the south as modeled at medium leads. Especially with the gfs but the euro has done it too. No signs of letting up on this cold push so far. Folks in the deep south will be making a run on jackets and gloves. If I was young I would buy a few thousand pairs of cheap wholesale $5 winter gloves and sell them for 20 a pop from the back of a truck and have some minions set up some lemonade style stands in high traffic areas. If the cops harass I'd bribe them with free gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Dgex 500mb basically looks like a more amped version of the EURO. Need at least 2 days to see if this has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 getting a little nervous....the euro control shows about 4 storms after 192 hours. All 4 are cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ah, I don't mess around wirh facebook much because I waste enough time doing others things already. If Iwas was on facebook I would troll his page incessantly until he comes back around this old self and things.Another week without snow and he'll start to come around if not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 getting a little nervous....the euro control shows about 4 storms after 192 hours. All 4 are cutters since the euro control's fantasy storms never verify I'd say we're good plus, don't forget how the Euro wants to wind everything up and the fast flow has been king this year I'd say they're right where we want them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Dude you say this every other day OMG, this might be the best setup I've seen in a while. omg1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Dude you say this every other day I'm not sure he realizes that DC's only had 7-11" so far this year compared to Philly's 30plus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 OMG 00z NAM h5 at 84!!!! Well not really, but looks like a decent s/w coming into E ID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 OMG 00z NAM h5 at 84!!!! Well not really, but looks like a decent s/w coming into E ID Actually, there is something to it. It's vastly different than the GFS. But....everybody say it with me...it's the NAM @ 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Actually, there is something to it. It's vastly different than the GFS. But....everybody say it with me...it's the NAM @ 84 hours Hey, this winter anything goes. That being said, it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Actually, there is something to it. It's vastly different than the GFS. But....everybody say it with me...it's the NAM @ 84 hours Well the point of my post was to troll Icez for a sec... but the NAM at 84 did look decent with s/w... hope GFS comes up with at least one six tonight on the two dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 OMG 00z NAM h5 at 84!!!! Well not really, but looks like a decent s/w coming into E ID Only slight diff on h5 at 84 on 00z GFS... only 200 miles E in extreme E MT/NE WY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wanna strangle the GFS. I have solace in the fact that it won't look like that in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wanna strangle the GFSIt's a disaster. There is no other word to soften the blow. Not saying it's correct but if it verifies we are back to where we came from.Superbowl looks warm/wet so we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the GFS became more accurate it suddenly became much less fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Disastrous within 192 hrs, heavy rain to blizzard on d11. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 When the GFS became more accurate it suddenly became much less fun. But really, is it that more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 We waited 3 weeks for the southern stream to get rain? Come on Hm Logic and past history would argue a more frozen scenario with departing arctic air. A bit quick in the rain scenario on the gfs and euro at d 9-10. Skill is bad at that range as well. However, I do think we get some rain during the first 7 days of Feb. Panic button should gather dust for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Logic and past history would argue a more frozen scenario with departing arctic air. A bit quick in the rain scenario on the gfs and euro at d 9-10. Skill is bad at that range as well. However, I do think we get some rain during the first 7 days of Feb. Panic button should gather dust for the time being. So you think there's still a chance for some early Feb. snow? By the way, are models still saying that Winter is over by Presidents Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So you think there's still a chance for some early Feb. snow? By the way, are models still saying that Winter is over by Presidents Day? Yes there is a very good chance for multiple events in early Feb. Maybe not all snow events but plenty chances. Just relax. Let's get through the Superbowl before we worry when winter ends. Eventually this pattern has to break down because the cold is too extreme and when it does it may be all over and reverse long term but before that happens you will almost certainly see more measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 So you think there's still a chance for some early Feb. snow? By the way, are models still saying that Winter is over by Presidents Day? The whole month is in play. Model skill beyond 5 days is suspect. Presidents day isn't even on the radar. Broader brush teleconnecton guidance looks totally fine We've had consistant cold periods all season and already have more snow than the last 2 winters combined in most places. There is no reason to remotely consider winter cancel until we are over a week into it. Next relaxation will likely bring some rain. We get 10" of rain on average per winter so that's normal. Ensemble guidance has the entire conus below normal in less than 2 week with an active storm track. There are never any guarantees but I can say with confidence we will get more accum snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The fact that it's looking like the beaches of NC might equal our 3 year snow total by the end of next week is just a tad bit discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The whole month is in play. Model skill beyond 5 days is suspect. Presidents day isn't even on the radar. Broader brush teleconnecton guidance looks totally fine We've had consistant cold periods all season and already have more snow than the last 2 winters combined in most places. There is no reason to remotely consider winter cancel until we are over a week into it. Next relaxation will likely bring some rain. We get 10" of rain on average per winter so that's normal. Ensemble guidance has the entire conus below normal in less than 2 week with an active storm track. There are never any guarantees but I can say with confidence we will get more accum snow this year. After next week's cold blasts we could really use some form of a block as things get active. As you know the first three weeks of Feb. is the most ideal time for some semblance of a -nao. We can reach full potential from blocking during this time as it's better in late winter as opposed to any other time. Things have gone pretty well so far without blocking so even if a true -nao does not develop some good things can still happen. There's been some suggesting that a gradient pattern sets up and that might work also if we get some nice highs to show up and create a solid CAD situation. At least we could get something decent on the front end even if the lows go west or north. I also wouldn't be surprised to see one more crazy cold wave hit us in early to mid Feb. after a short relaxation, but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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