North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not punting, but still a healthy skepticism that IF the next cold air comes in as modeled that there will be room to allow the Wend/Thus thing to amplify and get to our area. The cold air push is much less than six days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not punting, but still a healthy skepticism that IF the next cold air comes in as modeled that there will be room to allow the Wend/Thus thing to amplify and get to our area. The cold air push is much less than six days away... Unless you get a phase, which is still on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Unless you get a phase, which is still on the table at this point. I think you guys down there should def be keenly interested, you don't need as much help as we do. I will certainly keep watching for it for my area, even though I doubt it at this point. I have also learned to distrust "needing a phase" to get a storm up this way. Even if one occurs, it is often too late for us in this part of the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... http://postimg.org/image/a537m7zyn/ Check out the pretty dramatic differences that have taken place just since last night at 18Z and today at 12Z on the GFS. 5 or 6 days out, we could end up seeing a significantly different (for better OR for worse) evolution than we are seeing now. No need to either give up or be optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... especially when we have snow-producing cold air available (which is not easy to have around here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 http://postimg.org/image/a537m7zyn/ Check out the pretty dramatic differences that have taken place just since last night at 18Z and today at 12Z on the GFS. 5 or 6 days out, we could end up seeing a significantly different (for better OR for worse) evolution than we are seeing now. No need to either give up or be optimistic at this point. I agree, 6 days out is wayyy too far to give up or get excited, im just hoping a nw trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 That's good you aren't giving up on an event that is almost a week away.. It's good you're in a good form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out... Missing the point/context entirely. Most of it is tongue in cheek....in/out, etc. Some is cheerleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I saw this and had to post it... to all the people who believe in the global warming crap here ya go...... lol haha lol lol i don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I have to say, your cartoon has really made me rethink all of the overwhelming scientific data that says global warming is taking place. Because if still gets cold anywhere ever, global warming is FALSE, amirite? Derp! or the 1,000+ day streak of not seeing more than 2" of snow, which by the way, we didn't shatter by any means (thanks to the band that came through towards the end of Monday's storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Gfs wants to do a high QPF event next weekend into first week of feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 There's a whole sub forum dedicated to climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am punting February 5th. I'm in. But Feb 15 is looking doubtful. Probably out for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 everyone has opinions, but global sea ice is increasing, and look at the 1930s, considered the hottest decade, those records still hold, but no one says global warning about the 30s, were actually cooling Yes...cooling. http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/images/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Bob is right, though, we're off topic - so I'll let this one go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yes...cooling. http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/images/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif Bob is right, though, we're off topic - so I'll let this one go. yeah ill let it go too, but I meant cooling trend over last few years, but ur right time to get back on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Global warming talks never go well. Neither do politics and religion. If you want to draw a line in the sand that differing views will never cross to the other side...ever...those are the big 3. Let's stick to snow and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's been there, in fact multiple events, off and on for a while... yes i know..its been persistent but the last 2 runs have been pretty eye opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Global warming talks never go well. Neither do politics and religion. If you want to draw a line in the sand that differing views will never cross to the other side...ever...those are the big 3. Let's stick to snow and models.What if I praise Jesus for the GFS upgrades spurred on by Obama's belief in climate change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What if I praise Jesus for the GFS upgrades spurred on by Obama's belief in climate change? I would counter with a Pastafarian epistle elevating the greatness of the Flying Spaghetii Monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z Canadian, looks like a big hit for the SE almost gets DC in the game. SE VA def in the game. Edit (For Wed Coastal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z Canadian, looks like a big hit for the SE almost gets DC in the game. SE VA def in the game. Edit (For Wed Coastal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z Canadian, looks like a big hit for the SE almost gets DC in the game. SE VA def in the game. Edit (For Wed Coastal) hope it keeps trending nw, still got lots of time, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 WRT to the Canadian, I'm trying to figure out why a tenth of a mm of snow would look like on my deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 WRT to the Canadian, I'm trying to figure out why a tenth of a mm of snow would look like on my deck 3-5 flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just finished an article. I'll post it when Jason get it up. I still kind of like the pattern though I could do without another bout with low single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just finished an article. I'll post it when Jason get it up. I still kind of like the pattern though I could do without another bout with low single digits. Can't wait to see what the WJM shows (Wes Junker Model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro looks good at 500mb, looks like a close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro looks good at 500mb, looks like a close call just gunna post that here's 700mb rh on day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 something on its heels day 6? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 just gunna post that here's 700mb rh on day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest it might give some flakes, based on that map its likely a light swipe, but threat is alive, the pattern in early Feb looks amazing as the STJ comes to life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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