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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Unless you get a phase, which is still on the table at this point.

 

I think you guys down there should def be keenly interested, you don't need as much help as we do. I will certainly keep watching for it for my area, even though I doubt it at this point.

 

I have also learned to distrust "needing a phase" to get a storm up this way. Even if one occurs, it is often too late for us in this part of the mid-Atlantic.

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another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out...

 

http://postimg.org/image/a537m7zyn/

 

Check out the pretty dramatic differences that have taken place just since last night at 18Z and today at 12Z on the GFS. 5 or 6 days out, we could end up seeing a significantly different (for better OR for worse) evolution than we are seeing now. No need to either give up or be optimistic at this point.  

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another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out...

 

especially when we have snow-producing cold air available (which is not easy to have around here).

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http://postimg.org/image/a537m7zyn/

 

Check out the pretty dramatic differences that have taken place just since last night at 18Z and today at 12Z on the GFS. 5 or 6 days out, we could end up seeing a significantly different (for better OR for worse) evolution than we are seeing now. No need to either give up or be optimistic at this point.  

I agree,  6 days out is wayyy too far to give up or get excited, im just hoping a nw trend continues

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another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out...

Missing the point/context entirely.    Most of it is tongue in cheek....in/out, etc.   Some is cheerleading.   

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I have to say, your cartoon has really made me rethink all of the overwhelming scientific data that says global warming is taking place.

 

Because if still gets cold anywhere ever, global warming is FALSE, amirite? Derp!

 

or the 1,000+ day streak of not seeing more than 2" of snow, which by the way, we didn't shatter by any means (thanks to the band that came through towards the end of Monday's storm).

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everyone has opinions, but  global sea ice is increasing, and   look at the 1930s, considered the hottest decade,  those records still hold, but no one says global warning about the 30s,  were actually cooling

 

Yes...cooling. :axe:

 

http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/images/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

 

 

Bob is right, though, we're off topic - so I'll let this one go.

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Global warming talks never go well. Neither do politics and religion. If you want to draw a line in the sand that differing views will never cross to the other side...ever...those are the big 3. Let's stick to snow and models.

What if I praise Jesus for the GFS upgrades spurred on by Obama's belief in climate change?
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it might give some flakes, based on that map its likely a light swipe, but threat is alive, the pattern in early Feb looks amazing as the STJ comes to life

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