Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,862
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malmax64
    Newest Member
    Malmax64
    Joined

Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

I should have clarified, in saying dry, I was referring to the first storm window for next week we were all talking about. There is moisture beyond "truncation", but I have gotten tired of chasing moisture days 11-15.

I don't blame you but that period has been advertised as being a good period so keep the faith.....it's coming <cue Jaws music>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't blame you but that period has been advertised as being a good period so keep the faith.....it's coming <cue Jaws music>

 

Hope so. I also freely admit to falling on the Ji side of the ledger when it comes to stalking big storms and potential big snows. Glad for the inch we might get tomorrow, but i tend to read models looking for big storms. If the cold is as strong as modeled next week mid-week, we are not going to see snow mid-week. Enough model runs now that seems to be the likely outcome for that snow chance. 

 

At some point the deep cold will relax, and we have to hope we maybe get a storm chance then (and hope it doesn't relax so much we warm to rain while it snows to our west in an apps runner or something like it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mitch, I freely confess to being still on a steep learning curve four years in to lurking on these boards and trying to be a more serious hobbyist, and seldom chime in with comments for that reason on model threads, but I don't see any huge reason to be happy about that run, I guess. Something backs into the outer banks on Friday from the suppressed thing? I still don't see any precip up this way on that run, or close. If I have the wrong map or am reading it wrong, my apologies to the board. 

GFS southern stream suppression.  I'd look at the Euro for this event

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS southern stream suppression.  I'd look at the Euro for this event

 

Thought the Euro went the wrong way as well for mid-week? Don't get me wrong, I will root for it, but I am not seeing a lot of reason to think that's a storm for us with the cold coming in as strong as it is modeled to be.

 

ETA: Just noticed your location, maybe you all up there can catch a hook back in to the coast up your way, but down here I have seen enough "wide rights" to be aware of that likelihood with this much cold air in-bound.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thought the Euro went the wrong way as well for mid-week? Don't get me wrong, I will root for it, but I am not seeing a lot of reason to think that's a storm for us with the cold coming in as strong as it is modeled to be.

 

ETA: Just noticed your location, maybe you all up there can catch a hook back in to the coast up your way, but down here I have seen enough "wide rights" to be aware of that likelihood with this much cold air in-bound.

I think he's talking about the 7+ day period

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he's talking about the 7+ day period

 OK, maybe (he did say "for this event" which seems specific to next week). Hard to tell. I fully agree that in fantasy-land there looks to be chances.

 

In the mid-range, I am not seeing good signs for the middle of next week (for us/my backyard --- I am sure the folks in GA/SC/NC are very interested in the model battle).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles still show some support for Wed but it did back off from 12z yesterday. GFS/GEFS really want none of it. We'll probably be on the outside looking in.

It's now interesting on the Friday'ish timeframe. EPS (I'm going to start using this acronym or euro ensembles. It's easier) and GEFS now show the possibility of a second coastal / wave affecting the area. Weak signal but it's there. Fast flow and pieces zipping along will keep us interested even though it looks like a whiff for Wed.

Down the line looks fun but we start riding the frozen vs wet boundary. Looks like lots of moisture riding the boundary. I'm in.

d11-15 on EPS and GEFS look great on the means. EPS has lost above normal almost completely. One day near average and then cold comes back in. Same with GEFS. All systems go it appears into early Feb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I admit the Wed-Fri period isn't looking pretty on NWP but still obviously needs watching. Someone brought up March 1980 and there are actually some similarities there with the PV etc. It's worth checking out the upper-air maps if you get a chance.

 

There is no denying Feb's potential. Everyone and their mothers can see the writing on the wall there. Just like in December, a -EPO, SE ridge moisture train with plenty of cold air available, ala 93-94. So, yeah, that period will become interesting as we get closer and hone in on each individual pulse of moisture (perhaps more..?) streaming in. But next week had that phasing potential for a significant cyclone. Meh...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles still show some support for Wed but it did back off from 12z yesterday. GFS/GEFS really want none of it. We'll probably be on the outside looking in.

It's now interesting on the Friday'ish timeframe. EPS (I'm going to start using this acronym or euro ensembles. It's easier) and GEFS now show the possibility of a second coastal / wave affecting the area. Weak signal but it's there. Fast flow and pieces zipping along will keep us interested even though it looks like a whiff for Wed.

Down the line looks fun but we start riding the frozen vs wet boundary. Looks like lots of moisture riding the boundary. I'm in.

d11-15 on EPS and GEFS look great on the means. EPS has lost above normal almost completely. One day near average and then cold comes back in. Same with GEFS. All systems go it appears into early Feb.

 

The 6z GFS broke off the EPO block into the west -NAO regions, again, around Feb 5th or so and that's when it sends in a big storm in fantasy land. Looks like our climo peak in snow won't let us down this year, given the teleconnections.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 6z GFS broke off the EPO block into the west -NAO regions, again, around Feb 5th or so and that's when it sends in a big storm in fantasy land. Looks like our climo peak in snow won't let us down this year, given the teleconnections.

Another part of the look that the ensembles and ops are advertising the first week is a much broader conus trough with pac moitsure streaming across. Flow isn't nearly as amplified and that may work out in these parts. I'm not sure the met term but longitudinal boundary is what my mind call it. Height don't relax enough for us to easily be on the warm side. Moisture streaming and pressing up against the cold air to the N looks like overrunning galore on some members. Hard to say at MA latitudes if we stay on the right side all the time but odds would favor at least some of the precip chances working out from what I'm seeing.

Also keep seeing mixy/icy solutions in the members. That's fine with me. Better than warm rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another part of the look that the ensembles and ops are advertising the first week is a much broader conus trough with pac moitsure streaming across. Flow isn't nearly as amplified and that may work out in these parts. I'm not sure the met term but longitudinal boundary is what my mind call it. Height don't relax enough for us to easily be on the warm side. Moisture streaming and pressing up against the cold air to the N looks like overrunning galore on some members. Hard to say at MA latitudes if we stay on the right side all the time but odds would favor at least some of the precip chances working out from what I'm seeing.

Also keep seeing mixy/icy solutions in the members. That's fine with me. Better than warm rain.

 

Sounds a lot like Feb 1994 to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he's talking about the 7+ day period

 

I think these pattern threads could perhaps benefit from a brief "reset" post every few days--what time frames are the pattern watchers watching, with what sense of what exactly they've been seeing and expect to see on those time frames. Nothing big, just something to help the people who kind of dip in and out and might not always be on top of the current calendar of events....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

if this weather pattern was porn, this thread would be NSFW

 

It's pretty sick. Not perfect but sick nonetheless. I'm sure we'll get rained on at some point but it will only help cement the 1' pack into a glacier that lasts until march. LOL

 

I'm not writing off next week either. Lots of pieces rounding the pv. I like the friday signal a little bit. GEFS had a couple nice hits that weren't there before. Wouldn't be big or anything if it happens but fun regardless. Then the overunning show begins superbowl weekend. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's pretty sick. Not perfect but sick nonetheless. I'm sure we'll get rained on at some point but it will only help cement the 1' pack into a glacier that lasts until march. LOL

 

I'm not writing off next week either. Lots of pieces rounding the pv. I like the friday signal a little bit. GEFS had a couple nice hits that weren't there before. Wouldn't be big or anything if it happens but fun regardless. Then the overunning show begins superbowl weekend. 

the Friday signal was pretty strong a few days ago per EURO and GFS but then both lost it. Maybe it comes back. I am excited about February as we trade cold and dry for maybe a risk of warmer but stormier. I am not a fan of harsh dry winter conditions. Had it not been for the Tuesday storm, the Jan 20-Jan 31 period would of been a trolling disaster

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's pretty sick. Not perfect but sick nonetheless. I'm sure we'll get rained on at some point but it will only help cement the 1' pack into a glacier that lasts until march. LOL

 

I'm not writing off next week either. Lots of pieces rounding the pv. I like the friday signal a little bit. GEFS had a couple nice hits that weren't there before. Wouldn't be big or anything if it happens but fun regardless. Then the overunning show begins superbowl weekend. 

the CFS2 is not backing down on the well below normal FEB temps and well above normal precip

some will scoff, but the fact is we are now seeing that pattern show up on the medium range models and it has held firm with its FEB forecast for almost two weeks straight

we'll find out soon enough, of course, since we're only 8 days away from FEB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the Friday signal was pretty strong a few days ago per EURO and GFS but then both lost it. Maybe it comes back. I am excited about February as we trade cold and dry for maybe a risk of warmer but stormier. I am not a fan of harsh dry winter conditions. Had it not been for the Tuesday storm, the Jan 20-Jan 31 period would of been a trolling disaster

as opposed to usual trolling?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the Friday signal was pretty strong a few days ago per EURO and GFS but then both lost it. Maybe it comes back. I am excited about February as we trade cold and dry for maybe a risk of warmer but stormier. I am not a fan of harsh dry winter conditions. Had it not been for the Tuesday storm, the Jan 20-Jan 31 period would of been a trolling disaster

 

The next epo reload (and it looks huge) going into feb doesn't teleconnect with a +PNA ridge. This is a big difference for precip patterns across the conus. Basically the pac opens up but we don't flood with pac air because upper level flow is amped up from the -epo. Signs of blocking are really showing too. Euro and EPS are dead set on a -ao period. GEFS just followed suit overnight. Take a look at CPC plots. Big change from the last couple days. Even without atlantic help, waves entering the west coast can't easily cut on us. A big wrapped up storm probably would but this is all speculation. Even if something cuts we could easily score front end with a decent antecedent airmass. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's why I'm not giving up on Wed just yet, from Mt. Holly AFD

 

 

THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT, HOWEVER. ALL OF THE
MDLS DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE SERN CST AROUND WED. THEY THEN MOVE
THIS LOW NEWD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM KEEP THE LOW WELL OFF THE
COAST WITH NO IMPACT ON OUR WX. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS A SLIGHTLY
MORE WWD TRACK AND BRINGS A GLANCING BLOW TO OUR ERN LOCATIONS ON
WED. THE TREND SO FAR THIS WINTER (AS EVERYONE CAN SEE BY LOOKING
OUT THEIR WINDOWS) IS FOR A MORE WWD TRACK TO VERIFY AND GENLY FOR
A MORE WWD PROGRESSION WITH TIME. NOW, THE UPR AIR PATN IS A LOT
MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS TIME AND WITH SUCH A LARGE HIGH TO THE W OF
THE LOW, A WWD TRACK MAY NOT HAPPEN, BUT SOMETIMES A PERSISTENCE
FCST ENDS UP BEING THE BEST FCST. SO, WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS
IN OUR ERN AREAS, AND KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE. OF COURSE, THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN ONE OF THE BETTER MDLS AS WELL.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Leesburg has about 13 inches so far in January with and will end up with a well below normal winter month with temps. Easily our best winter month since 09-10. This might be one of those rare winters where we get above normal snowfall but not historic

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Berk is in:

 

Support for Saturday Snow:
Here is the Hi-Resolution NAM Model showing the snowfall outlook tomorrow. This has done a decent job lately, so I endorse it. Below is my take for our region. To see more on the next week and impact on the ski areas, please see my article in OpenSnow. This is a great time to sign up for the suite of Powder Finder, snow models, and slope cams
https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/post/2042

Metro Baltimore/southern PA:
*Arrival: 9 AM to 11 AM in central Maryland/southern PA
*Ending: Saturday Evening.
*How Much? General 1-2 inches near and north of Laurel/Glen Burnie. The cold air/fluff factor could bring a few spots north close to 3", especially north of Baltimore.
South into AA County, southern MD, Eastern Shore Easton/Camgridge/Delaware: A dusting to 1 inch at best.

Sunday Night/Monday: I will continue to say that I think it will pass too far north into NY State to be an impact for us. So I have not and will not bite on the hype. But some will get clipped west of Frederick and central PA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

another reason not to give up on it is it is at day 6....and the models lack skill at that range, esp in this pattern...I don't know what has happened to our forum that people are punting potential events or even nonexistent events a week out...

 

We call those people QPF Queens. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...