Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Feb is just about in range and the Jan thread is pretty long. I have a hunch this thread is going to get long in a hurry. MJO is trying to wake up. That could help in Feb. GEFS has the strongest signal but going into phase 6 (usually not good) but cruises towards 7-8. Chatter about a real SSW being on the table. I know little so I'll leave it up to others. Maybe we get lucky and get some blocking in Feb. Most importantly, very active pattern coming up through the end of the month it seems. There will be a lot of model waffling at all leads so I'm sure there will be a bunch of peter norths up in here. Euro ens and GEFS agree on the overall high latitude pattern and hopefully it's stable and tough to break down. PV firmly locked on our side of the pole for the foreseeable future. Who's ready for our first region wide WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Looks like a blend of phase 1-2 mjo composites for JFM. Have no idea if the cfs implies anything irt the mjo. But trop forcing seems to want to awaken and affect nh circulation. Maybe someone who knows more about this can chime in. I know enough to be dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Feb will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 i have never seen the CFS so wet during a winter month. Of course its the CFS and it could be showing dark red tomorrow. I believe we will not get a KU this winter but we will get a 6-12 inch snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Looks like a blend of phase 1-2 mjo composites for JFM. Have no idea if the cfs implies anything irt the mjo. But trop forcing seems to want to awaken and affect nh circulation. Maybe someone who knows more about this can chime in. I know enough to be dangerous. mjo1-2.JPG I believe the CFS ens has the MJO in phase 7, moving towards phase 8 in the first 10 days of Feb. I am not an expert on this stuff either, but we need it to progress to phase 8 then 1 and 2 (ideally). They are much more favorable for cold in the east than phase 7, but not sure how much it would matter if we have most of the other indices in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 I believe the CFS ens has the MJO in phase 7, moving towards phase 8 in the first 10 days of Feb. I am not an expert on this stuff either, but we need it to progress to phase 8 then 1 and 2 (ideally). They are much more favorable for cold in the east than phase 7, but not sure how much it would matter if we have most of the other indices in our favor. I think the main teleconnections work in tandem with the mjo in the 8-1-2 run if forcing is strong enough. Active southern stream and usually good blocking iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 When people say "WSW," do they mean Winter Storm Watch or Winter Storm Warning? I ask in all seriousness, because it always confuses me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 When people say "WSW," do they mean Winter Storm Watch or Winter Storm Warning? I ask in all seriousness, because it always confuses me. The official codes list Winter Storm Watch as WSA and Winter Storm Warning as WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JOEY B is worried https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423151776968101888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JOEY B is worried https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423151776968101888 I'll wait until little JB gets worried more than dad-dad-dadio before I head for the shelter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JOEY B is worried https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423151776968101888 There aren't enough of these in the world.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Oh man.... https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 JOEY B is worried https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423151776968101888 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Oh man.... https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 Gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Gone weird little symbol messed up the url https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi21m I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi21m I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled he is probably looking at energy weeklies which show like -8 departures in the east in early Feb...I have no idea what kind of skill they have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This guy should be on a soap opera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Is he stoned? Maybe he shouldn't hit the twitter after hitting the pipe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Signs of a split follow developing during this time period has me starting to get excited, just be patient guys, as tough as that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi21m I am trying to measure words, but what I see coming needs preparaton Power outages, busting pipes strain on cities threat has me rattled How much for Burke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The official codes list Winter Storm Watch as WSA and Winter Storm Warning as WSW Thanks, Kmlwx. Now I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 weird little symbol messed up the url https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/423156243679563776 another serious lol. This guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Signs of a split follow developing during this time period has me starting to get excited, just be patient guys, as tough as that is. you do realize that Philly climo is different than DC?....maybe you don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I don't really see anything exciting in the extended. Various vorts nearby do nothing w/o blocking and the NS flow will only benefit the upslope areas. I could see a clipper giving us a minor accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I don't really see anything exciting in the extended. Various vorts nearby do nothing w/o blocking and the NS flow will only benefit the upslope areas. I could see a clipper giving us a minor accumulation. I think day 7-10 could have a storm...certainly better than the next 7 days (though maybe the weekend event gets better)...I'm not sure without a nice southern stream the models are going to be much use in that range when dealing with a miller B or hybrid...I'm more interested in the longwave pattern than what models are showing in discrete events...models have been consistent in showing a robust +PNA/-EPO pattern after day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 I don't really see anything exciting in the extended. Various vorts nearby do nothing w/o blocking and the NS flow will only benefit the upslope areas. I could see a clipper giving us a minor accumulation. I think looking past 3-5 days won't be worth it either way. Runs that show something won't verify and dry runs disappoint. With the pv getting displaced into se canada it can act like a block itself with confluence. We can easily get a 50/50 going but all the parts move so med-short leads are all we got. ETA: and what matt just said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 you do realize that Philly climo is different than DC?....maybe you don't Just stay patient.. like we aren't already really good at that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think day 7-10 could have a storm...certainly better than the next 7 days (though maybe the weekend event gets better)...I'm not sure without a nice southern stream the models are going to be much use in that range when dealing with a miller B or hybrid...I'm more interested in the longwave pattern than what models are showing in discrete events...models have been consistent in showing a robust +PNA/-EPO pattern after day 7 I think looking past 3-5 days won't be worth it either way. Runs that show something won't verify and dry runs disappoint. With the pv getting displaced into se canada it can act like a block itself with confluence. We can easily get a 50/50 going but all the parts move so med-short leads are all we got. yeah...models are of little use with discrete events outside of a few days...this isn't 2009-10 when a model can lock in at day 7...I'm looking forward to Wes's article... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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