Hoosier Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 There's a thread on this in the main forum but I know some people don't go there much, and these changes figure to come into play very often. First, the old categories/probabilities: And the new ones: Basically, "marginal" takes the place of what used to be "see text"...and "enhanced" will be used to cover what were high end slight/low end moderate risks in the past. Also it appears we will be seeing day 1 10% wind and hail areas with the new format. Some key changes in categories: - 15% tornado is no longer a moderate risk unless it's hatched - 30% tornado is no longer a high risk unless it's hatched - 45% wind is no longer a moderate risk unless it's hatched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I don't claim to know much about severe, but it seems to me that words "marginal" and "slight" are basically synonyms. In fact, to some, going from the marginal category to the slight category may connote a decreased risk. Assuming these SPC forecasts are for the general public to consume, it seems like it may be confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 I don't claim to know much about severe, but it seems to me that words "marginal" and "slight" are basically synonyms. In fact, to some, going from the marginal category to the slight category may connote a decreased risk. Assuming these SPC forecasts are for the general public to consume, it seems like it may be confusing. I agree about confusion. My bigger problem is the enhanced word. I've thought of that word as an umbrella term that can be used to describe anything above a slight risk, but now it's actually its own risk category...not only that, it's lower than moderate and high. I do understand that SPC wanted to do something to differentiate run of the mill slight risks from those that have the potential to be a bit more widespread/dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I agree about confusion. My bigger problem is the enhanced word. I've thought of that word as an umbrella term that can be used to describe anything above a slight risk, but now it's actually its own risk category...not only that, it's lower than moderate and high. I do understand that SPC wanted to do something to differentiate run of the mill slight risks from those that have the potential to be a bit more widespread/dangerous. To me, "enhanced" comes off as more significant than "high." I can't be the only one that thinks that, so that may cause further confusion. Another thing to note is that the 4-8 day outlooks now have two categories, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 To me, "enhanced" comes off as more significant than "high." I can't be the only one that thinks that, so that may cause further confusion. Another thing to note is that the 4-8 day outlooks now have two categories, which is nice.. They will need to change the header they put on the weather.gov site on days when potential is high. They seem to always do something like "Enhanced risk of severe storms in the Midwest..." which would obviously cause some confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The weird thing about using enhanced and marginal is that they seem more suited (perhaps only because we're used to them this way) as adjectives qualifying a given risk rather than separate risks themselves. For instance, using the old system, a setup could be on the margin (i.e. marginal) between a slight risk and a moderate risk or moderate and high, and a moderate risk could be looked at as an enhanced slight risk and a high risk an enhanced moderate risk. Just hearing all if the categories by themselves, the words "marginal" and particularly "enhanced" don't have as intuitive as a place on the spectrum of risk severity as "slight", "moderate", and "high" do. That all being said, I'm sure the SPC did a fair amount of research and thinking on this and I'm interested to see ho it will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I agree with the confusion, but like hm8 said I'm sure they did their research, and let the confusion POUR that first "enhanced" threat we get and people get "enhanced" mixed up with marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 IMO, they're doing too much. The old risk categories were fine (other than adjustments to the probabilities). I see what they're trying to do (there have been a lot of events recently categorized as moderate/high risks that fell short for example), but the new risk categories will just make things more complicated for the general public. That said, I'm sure they did their research before introducing this. Hopefully the enhancements will be integrated smoothly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Spc has been knocking stuff out of the park the last few years with changes (new look, tornado environment browser on meso page, etc.) Maybe they're due for a clunker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 i doubt anyone other than chasers and this board gives a damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 i doubt anyone other than chasers and this board gives a damn. Usually I would have agreed with this up until the last couple of years, since then though meteorologists on tv at local stations have been using the risks in their forecasts which has raised awareness of the products with the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Not a big fan of the word marginal being used, to me it is a word that is limiting in potential yet a marginal day can end up being a big day. Honestly the same can go for the word slight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Usually I would have agreed with this up until the last couple of years, since then though meteorologists on tv at local stations have been using the risks in their forecasts which has raised awareness of the products with the general public. Bingo, this has ramifications on the met community as a whole. You'd like to think this was well thought out but based on what other mets have said, SPC received negative feedback about the wording and went ahead with the changes anyway. This idea of adding categories was proposed in 2012 (to be implemented for 2013) but it didn't happen then. It will take some getting used to and will hopefully end up being better than the previous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Bingo, this has ramifications on the met community as a whole. You'd like to think this was well thought out but based on what other mets have said, SPC received negative feedback about the wording and went ahead with the changes anyway. This idea of adding categories was proposed in 2012 (to be implemented for 2013) but it didn't happen then. It will take some getting used to and will hopefully end up being better than the previous system. Don't get me wrong, I understand why they are changing it up, the enhanced risk is a great addition. Honestly I would have loved to seen a moderate, enhanced and high be the risk catagories, just eliminate the words that marginalize the potential (slight/marginal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hatch requirements being changed are okay by me, but I would have kept it simple with only the slight/mod/high. I'm sure we'll all get used to it quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Not a big fan of the word marginal being used, to me it is a word that is limiting in potential yet a marginal day can end up being a big day. Honestly the same can go for the word slight as well. It's better to use "marginal" instead of "see text". At least there's a name for the category now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 i doubt anyone other than chasers and this board gives a damn. I agree. Majority of the people are completely clueless about weather terms. In places like OK, KS and others in the tornado alley they maybe a bit more in tune. I don't mind the changes though adding more terms likely just makes it more complicated. In the end I honestly think most people will hear 'it is going to t-storms and some maybe severe'. They will hear 'it is going to' even if the weatherman say there is only a 30% chance. If they get a severe t-storm they will claim they were not warned soon enough (even if there was a warning 15+ minutes in advanced). If they don't get a t-storm they will complain the weatherman is always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll put in my small two cents here. I don't necesarily have any major problems with the changes. To me, looking at the SPC page during any severe weather event is just like breathing and we all here, for the most part, can analyze and come up with our own determination as to how bad the severe weather could be despite SPC categories. With that said, my concern is shifted to the public. I completely agree with Stebo. The public is far more aware of the SPC categories since local TV channels have been using the graphics. Even my brother-in-law is glued to the SPC page and I never even told him about it. I had to put myself in his shoes when reading the changes. It's bad enough when a Moderate is slapped across Indiana - he about goes into shut down mode and gathers all personal belongings and his dog before hyper-ventilating on the bathroom floor. So how will he interpret the new categories? I will have to (calmly) ask him when they give it a go. I am just like everyone else here though, I know a forecaster at SPC and they don't make random changes without some thorough research. And if all fails, it's not like they can't change it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's better to use "marginal" instead of "see text". At least there's a name for the category now. In that sense I do agree, the general public doesn't understand the premise behind a "see text". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 As a few have mentioned, the SPC products are getting more attention these days, mainly due to local and national media showing the products themselves rather than a user actual going to the SPC site himself. Hopefully this means that some of the potential confusion on the severity of an "enhanced" risk can be alleviated with a proper explanation from whatever 2nd/3rd party source they get it from. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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