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SPC announces two new risk categories for 2014 season:


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"Normal" (non-weather people) think that a 30% chance of a tornado is a "Low" chance. When the local weatherman says: "Slight chance of showers (30%)" you look at that as it probably won't rain. So there is some confusing overlap for people when it comes to the difference between the % forecasts. 

 

That's relative. According to studies our SOO gave us, folks have different reactions and take action for a wide range of PoPs. For example: based on their personal experience, one person may take take an umbrella to work with a 30 PoP, while another will wait until it's a 60 PoP.    

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This is true. These charts are aimed at the met community, em's, media, etc. The problem has been the media shows them and tries to explain them, without much success I've noted. 

 

This.  All too often I've seen everyone from local stations to national networks display the "slight", "moderate", and "high" risk categories and attempt to explain them.  It hasn't worked very well...and it is why SPC needs to keep the general public in mind when defining risk zones.

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This is true. These charts are aimed at the met community, em's, media, etc. The problem has been the media shows them and tries to explain them, without much success I've noted. 

That's fair...I guess. I have found that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing wrt our EM people. Ours certainly get carried away with some of this type of higher level info thinking they are suddenly experts. But most county EMs in tornado alley probably appreciate the clarification.

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  • 3 months later...

I'd rather there not be any risk above high because we already know that SHTF usually with a high risk and adding more would just confuse people further since a lot of them don't understand the probabilistic nature of these forecasts (in addition to possibly adding needless complacency considering that high risk wouldn't be the top level anymore). Any case warranting above a high risk would also be incredibly rare ala 4/27/11. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

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I like the idea of "Marginal" replacing "See Text" (that was weird anyways) and adding "Enhanced" between Slight and Moderate to differentiate lower-end setups to those leaning towards higher-end ones. Ultimately, however, this update still does not address the problem of "Slight". Us weather enthusiasts know it doesn't necessarily mean a small risk of severe weather, but a majority of the public probably doesn't.

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I like the idea of "Marginal" replacing "See Text" (that was weird anyways) and adding "Enhanced" between Slight and Moderate to differentiate lower-end setups to those leaning towards higher-end ones. Ultimately, however, this update still does not address the problem of "Slight". Us weather enthusiasts know it doesn't necessarily mean a small risk of severe weather, but a majority of the public probably doesn't.

I have mixed feelings about the proposal. My first immediate thought was that it's too much. Information overload for the general public, especially considering there's already a lack of understanding by most about what "slight" vs. "moderate" vs. "high" mean. It's the most troubling when SPC puts out a slight risk and I see different media outlets describing the risk using other words, including moderate when it's clearly not a moderate risk.

On the other hand, I do think the "enhanced" level/wording could be of some use. The example that was given was the June 1st, 2011 outlook that was retrofitted with the proposed scale. That was the day of the Massachusetts tornado outbreak and the long-track EF-3. It would have increased the threat from just slight to enhanced. See text is good for in-house use by NWS and other meteorologists, but I also kind of like the marginal wording too.

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Always love to think about this and I've seen this mentioned around before and really like it but I think risk categories of elevated, enhanced, and high would be more than fine.

 

Elevated - This indicates there is the threat for thunderstorms, however, the is the potential for a few of these thunderstorms to become strong to severe.

 

Enhanced - Widespread thunderstorms are likely and there is a potential for numerous thunderstorms to become strong to severe

 

High - Widespread thunderstorms and widespread severe weather likely.  

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  • 5 months later...

Not a fan. More complex will likely lead to more confusion. Most folks still don't know the difference btw a watch and a warning.  

 

That's VERY true.... but these also come with a 1-5 number scale and a cool to hot color scale.  Maybe there will be more focus toward that as the weather community gets used to using these publicly.  That's what SPC wants us to do anyway...

 

If folks can't understand that orange and red look more serious than green.... or on a 1 through 5 number scale, that a 4 is more serious than a 2..... there is no help for that group of people.  They are intentionally ignorant in that case.

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  • 4 weeks later...

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