Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We are waiting until the 0z runs to make sure its not all fools gold haha. It would be quite fitting for this year if the models went completely dry for the next 8 runs, though thats doubtful. Hopefully, it'll trend a little better as we work in and gather more model support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks like fairly good support on the ensembles for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This looks to be a close call at 114...North of I-85 in NC/SC could be in business... Those temps are turrible. Just turrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The surface temps do look bad east of the mtns or foothills from what I saw on the Euro. Surface winds are out of the SW prior to the precip moving in and dewpoints surge into the upper 30's to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 18z NAM is a better for central NC. looks to give > .1 liquid by hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 2m temps do look like an issue for most of GA, but I have a REALLY hard time buying how temps would surge up like that with QPF falling. I just can't see how we would shoot up into the 40's We shall see, but the set up looks GREAT so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm still a bit skeptic but I'm starting to get excited here in the NE GA mountains. Euro looks GREAT for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GSP'S long term: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 220 PM EST MONDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE STARTS WITH A HIGHAMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. WPCCOMMENTED THAT THEY FAVOR SLOWER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAMTROUGHING WITH THIS PATTERN...THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART THEYAPPEAR TO HAVE GONE WITH A SERIES OF ENSEMBLE BLENDS FOR THEEXTENDED RANGE. THE 12 UTC OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS NOW QUITE A BITSLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE 12 UTC GFS WITH ENERGY DROPPING INTO THELONG WAVE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS ASHOT OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FA...INDUCING SFCCYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN NC FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IN TURN BRINGS PCPNACROSS MOST OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE NC ZONES. THE GFS IS SO MUCHFARTHER EAST THAT MOST OF IT/S PCPN RESULTS FROM NW FLOW SNOW. I/MNOT GOING TO JUMP ON THE NEW ECMWF SOLUTION JUST YET CONSIDERING HOWMUCH DRIER THE GFS IS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QPF WOULD IMPLY THEPOTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NCMOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY. I/LL ADD ATAG FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NC MTNS TO THE HWO FORFRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 18z not going to get it done but it did take a step west vs. 12z so maybe that's a baby step. 00z Euro should be telling tonight. Does it double down or back off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z not going to get it done but it did take a step west vs. 12z so maybe that's a baby step. 00z Euro should be telling tonight. Does it double down or back off? I bet it doubles down. It was the only model last week calling for rain tonight and it wasn't until 36 hours ago that NAM and GFS bowed to it. Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I bet it doubles down. It was the only model last week calling for rain tonight and it wasn't until 36 hours ago that NAM and GFS bowed to it. Sent from my steam-powered printing press. The King has backed down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NWS ILM Says.. Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...as of 3 am Tuesday...the main forecast issue will be the possibility oflight rain or a little light snow late Wednesday into Thursdaymorning.A deep and sharp trough will develop and move south through the dayWednesday from the Midwest to the grand strand by Thursday morning.The GFS has been inconsistent in quantitative precipitation forecast development with this featurewhile the NAM is more bullish as is the European model (ecmwf). Cold air advectionwill be coincident with this feature although thermal profiles/dataare sending mixed messages. The soundings look colder while thenumerical guidance is showing a well mixed boundary layer keepingsurface temperatures above freezing. We have seen a couple ofsimilar systems the past few years one as recent as this November.With the mixed signals...prudence calls for leaving a little lightsnow in the grids while emphasizing it will be a nuisance event. ForWednesday...guidance has taken an emphatic turn toward warmerreadings and we could eclipse 60 degrees again in some areas. As forThursday cold air advection will keep highs mainly in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Looking at the 0z Euro, I would assume the reason it was less impressive was that it was bundled as well as it was from the two previous runs. That's what it looks like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS is wetter than it's previous run but still not going to get the job done. If it digs just a little more it should work out for someone in the NC area...probably around I-40 maybe a little south of that. We'll need to watch the trends given the current changes models are showing just for tomorrow into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS is wetter than it's previous run but still not going to get the job done. If it digs just a little more it should work out for someone in the NC area...probably around I-40 maybe a little south of that. We'll need to watch the trends given the current changes models are showing just for tomorrow into Thursday. With the flow as fast as it has been, imo the models won't really key onto anything until the first flizzard gets out of the way. Some runs it keys onto the first being stronger, then the second being stronger. Gotta love model madness....even for a flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 With the flow as fast as it has been, imo the models won't really key onto anything until the first flizzard gets out of the way. Some runs it keys onto the first being stronger, then the second being stronger. Gotta love model madness....even for a flizzard Yes this one keys in on a closed off vort that wasn't there to our north. Anything is possible this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah, the clipper that the GFS shows coming through Saturday Night/Early Sunday is of some interest to me...at that point in the game, the heights and temps are cold enough to support wintry precip on both the front and rear end of the storm. The key there is to see if the vort can dig far enough south. The 12z depiction showed a solid advisory level event from the lower Ohio Valley down into KY, Northern TN and Western VA. You can see the track of the vort at 102 getting ready to enter extreme Southern Illinois...then by 114 it is crossing southeastward over the Apps. I think for the I-40 Cooridor you would rather see that vort crossing the Ozarks and into Memphis then sliding east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The 12z GFS, taken at face value, shows a dusting to half inch of snow for folks in western and central NC. Look at hour 90: http://www.twisterdata.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Cmc is better especially for eastern Tennessee and west nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 ukmet is pretty bullish for the friday system. Uk a lot of times has a dry bias so this looks pretty good. 12z euro though is dry and crushes the system. Most of what little precip there is, is along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Per a tweet from Robert Very cold pool aloft,cyl.flow Friday to bring lt snow to part of #mswx #alwx #gawx #scwx #tnwx #ncwx by Fri PM. -15 at 850 over Jackson, MS https://twitter.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 0z NAM and GFS both have our clipper for Friday into Saturday. Again, the thing to remember in this instance that is that we may already have low enough heights and temps to where this could produce as much on the front end as compared to once the vort passes through the Upper Southeast and Southern Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Fwiw, our local fox met put up their in house computer model for Friday a m, and it was solidly snow and a pretty sizeable batch of precip! Like normal, she said no accums expected, but will watch it closely?! Hard to get excited about clippers, but as the pattern gets progressively colder, one could pan out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is this one coming off of life support tonight? Upgrade to serious but stable condition!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Is this one coming off of life support tonight? Upgrade to serious but stable condition!? Stable but under observation... we'll check on it again in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Maybe some light front end with this one would be about it maybe if not always the possibility of the one behind it for 1/19-1/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Prelude to the clipper, 0Z NAM paints a narrow band of QPF into the Coastal Plain with a quick spin up off HAT. Thickness supports at-least a mixed bag, current forecast is silent POP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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