OceanStWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Happy hour GFS not biting this run. Wide right. Two days ago that meant two for one rum runners, now it's a series of Scott Norwoods. At least I can manage the transition from STT to PWM a little better with these temps. I'm definitely in favor of using this phrase for the 18z GFS more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 GFS is wayy too progressive in this pattern, not accounting for a +PNA ridge in place. I would side with the foreign models right now which have a better handle on this situation at h5. GFS is too progressive in my opinion, again in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 GFS is wayy too progressive in this pattern, not accounting for a +PNA ridge in place. I would side with the foreign models right now which have a better handle on this situation at h5. GFS is too progressive in my opinion, again in my opinion. Wrong James. It's a progressive pattern and every met onthe bb knows it. Atlantic with no blocking, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Wrong James. It's a progressive pattern and every met onthe bb knows it. Atlantic with no blocking, Well chalk up two more threads started for non-existent threats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Next. Shades fully drawn until the 20th. No peeking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The GGEM looks similar to the GFS. Nothing doing through day 6. If this holds, it's a good job by the GEFS... it never bit on any of the threats. Plenty of times it overemphasizes threats in the 3-5 day range... but not this time. This period could end up being another knock against the Euro... but we'll have to wait and see how Sat-Mon plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Dare I say the GFS has done pretty well in the mid range this winter? I wonder how they are scoring vs the other models thus far in the 4-6 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 GGEM is more amped up then the GFS is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 GGEM is more amped up then the GFS is right now. Yes it is, but still not much. It does maybe have an inch of snow or so for E MA. (0.1-0.2" of precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 GGEM is more amped up then the GFS is right now. Less so than 12z though. Getting close to pulling the plug on this one now that we are within 84 hours but maybe someone can still pull off an inch. Bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yes it is, but still not much. It does maybe have an inch of snow or so for E MA. (0.1-0.2" of precip) I'm seeing a tenth or less. And the 84hr color 500mb chart on Environment Canada looks more threatening than it is because the vorticity coloring gets visually intertwined with the height lines. I still prefer the old black and white maps. But yeah I agree it's still more threatening than the GFS. And slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm seeing a tenth or less. And the 84hr color 500mb chart on Environment Canada looks more threatening than it is because the vorticity coloring gets visually intertwined with the height lines. I still prefer the old black and white maps. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif WSI maps have about 0.15" for BOS between 84 and 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif WSI maps have about 0.15" for BOS between 84 and 96 hours. Yeah you're right. Adding 84-96hr it's 3-6mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think we are bottoming out here. A depressing overnight suite. HPC says seasonably cold and dry unless the northern stream amplifies, due to low pressure at the pole. I remember a period like this just before our active 1st week of January. It looked storm free and then suddenly we had the rain south, paste north storm of the 29th and the subsequent large storm on the 2nd. Those weren't signalled 6-7 days ahead I don't think. So we may have a crappy 5-7 days, or we might find something pops up later today or overnight on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What was so depressing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The chances for this to be anything more than a sunblocker that generates a few fuzzy or wet pixels are diminishing. The Euro, the only model that develop a low (even had it negatively tilted at one point, painting NH and Maine with 0.25 to 0.50 inches of precip) along the coast, is now showing an open wave. In years past, many would have called out the GFS for caving to the Euro solution. It doesn't seem to be the case at this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This was always a thread the needle event....not worth getting the hopes up 5 days out. Yeah the euro guidance got a little bullish 5 days out...but the red flag is the GFS never biting. No loss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Although, I would not rule out some -SN in parts of New England as this develops and a possile hang back trough develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Although, I would not rule out some -SN in parts of New England as this develops and a possile hang back trough develops. Exactly Scott, I think you have it right. The real action starts after the weekend. We had a shot on the weekend but that doesn't look so good now (however it might come back some, as they often do) but the real action was due to start after the weekend and last for at least a week, probably more. GYX has it right I think. My buddies over at HPC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Thats the issue with peeps trying to squeeze storms with their kung fu grip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Thats the issue with peeps trying to squeeze storms with their kung fu grip... There are those that think every threat is going to materialize. Now they've been given the green light to start threads for every day 7-10 storm on a model. Failing miserably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Just draw shades and pray to ULLR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 There are those that think every threat is going to materialize. Now they've been given the green light to start threads for every day 7-10 storm on a model. Failing miserably. Folks with unproven records starting storm threads..................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Although, I would not rule out some -SN in parts of New England as this develops and a possile hang back trough develops. You know its bad when It comes down to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You know its bad when It comes down to this Well it's never been a good look for this storm anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Well it's never been a good look for this storm anyhow. No, Other then the amped up euro on a few runs, All the other models have been pretty progressive with these s/w, And its 7 days before the possible MLK storm, So no excitement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You know its bad when It comes down to this wintry appeal!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 There are those that think every threat is going to materialize. Now they've been given the green light to start threads for every day 7-10 storm on a model. Failing miserably. What is the solution to this? To be honest I don't think us common folk should be allowed to start forecast threads like this. Observation threads are another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What is the solution to this? To be honest I don't think us common folk should be allowed to start forecast threads like this. Observation threads are another story. I dunno... it is just a thread... if not interested, let it lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I dunno... it is just a thread... if not interested, let it lie. exactly, why would it matter we are all equal, silly thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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