CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Guess we could pull a 77 cold and dry. Going to need snow cover with that coming cold, yikes Yeah no precip until April. People are spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Well if you expected a KU on Saturday. Again, if you get a coating..it's gravy. I'm not expecting anything. Just hoping for snow of any kind. I don't buy into hype or expectations. I check every model run of just about every major model. This is the first GFS run that I've seen since Nov that offered minimal hope through day 8. Still hoping for a major change in the short range with one of these potent shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm not expecting anything. Just hoping for snow of any kind. I don't buy into hype or expectations. I check every model run of just about every major model. This is the first GFS run that I've seen since Nov that offered minimal hope through day 8. Still hoping for a major change in the short range with one of these potent shortwaves. 22-23 is on the table IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 22-23 is on the table IMHO. EC ensembles still have a decent signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 EC ensembles still have a decent signal GFS has something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 You were the one posting all about how we could see snow Thursday and Saturday and most were wondering what you were talking about. That's childish. And completely false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think you are slightly biased by recent runs of the Euro. To me it doesn't look much better than the preceeding waves for any area. Same story... weak baroclinicity, wave intererence, low pressure in the Lakes, positively tiled trof. I'm not sure if you misinterpreted my post, but I used the 84h NAM as an exmaple of how we'd want the trough to look to give us a chance in eastern New England. The NAM showed it deep enough for eastern New England...its clear looking at it that precip and VVs are moving up the eastern wall of the baroclinic zone into E MA/RI. Will it verify like that? Probably not, but it is within the envelope of solutions. You simply replied to my post as if I was telling everyone the 18z NAM solution was going to verify or as if it was my forecast. The 18z GFS shows how the trough would be not amplified enough. That is also within the envelope of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's going to be a snowy day Saturday. Whether it's an inch or 5 that we jus don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's going to be a snowy day Saturday. Whether it's an inch or 5 that we jus don't know yet Back in reality land... odds of accumulating snow on Saturday are low but definitely not zero. Odds favor no measurable from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Back in reality land... odds of accumulating snow on Saturday are low but definitely not zero. Odds favor no measurable from what I can tell.The Euro ens give e of river a couple inches . Op gives an inch or 2. Gefs have light snow. I think a nice light sniwfall is certainly possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm not sure if you misinterpreted my post, but I used the 84h NAM as an exmaple of how we'd want the trough to look to give us a chance in eastern New England. The NAM showed it deep enough for eastern New England...its clear looking at it that precip and VVs are moving up the eastern wall of the baroclinic zone into E MA/RI. Will it verify like that? Probably not, but it is within the envelope of solutions. You simply replied to my post as if I was telling everyone the 18z NAM solution was going to verify or as if it was my forecast. The 18z GFS shows how the trough would be not amplified enough. That is also within the envelope of solutions. The NAM at day 1 (24hrs) has a higher amplitude trof than at day 3. The height fields are very similar. If you overlay and cycle the progression it's pretty clear to me why the 18z NAM is not enough (even for eastern areas). Sure, maybe an inch or two of wet snow on Sat in elevated, interior section of SE SNE. But you need improvements from here. We are plague by persistent problems on wave after wave. I was just suggesting that if you hadn't been primed by a few Euro runs, the 18z NAM might not have seemed so favorable. Because by itself it is less impressive than a half dozen NAM runs since Sunday. And I've been checking them. That all said, I still think Sat could happen. There is still time for this to trend better. And as I've said since late last week (even when others have congratulating PF), I favor eastern areas. But the GFS and GEFS are not encouraging at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Back in reality land... odds of accumulating snow on Saturday are low but definitely not zero. Odds favor no measurable from what I can tell. Pretty solid synopsis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 22-23 is on the table IMHO. Yeah there is definitely a threat in that time period. There has been a steady series of waves. But the modeled height fields look very similar to Thur/Sat/Mon. It would stand to reason that one of these would work out eventually. But it's not clear to me WHY any of them should. I don't see a lot of large scale changes to the basic pattern. Any of them might or might not work out. It is always thread the needle at our lat lon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The Euro ens give e of river a couple inches . Op gives an inch or 2. Gefs have light snow. I think a nice light sniwfall is certainly possible Eh... dunno about that. The ensemble mean shows snow but the median of all members shows nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The NAM at day 1 (24hrs) has a higher amplitude trof than at day 3. The height fields are very similar. If you overlay and cycle the progression it's pretty clear to me why the 18z NAM is not enough (even for eastern areas). Sure, maybe an inch or two of wet snow on Sat in elevated, interior section of SE SNE. But you need improvements from here. We are plague by persistent problems on wave after wave. I was just suggesting that if you hadn't been primed by a few Euro runs, the 18z NAM might not have seemed so favorable. Because by itself it is less impressive than a half dozen NAM runs since Sunday. And I've been checking them. That all said, I still think Sat could happen. There is still time for this to trend better. And as I've said since late last week (even when others have congratulating PF), I favor eastern areas. But the GFS and GEFS are not encouraging at all. The Thursday trough trended worse from earlier runs. That doesn't mean this one will too. It might, but that isn't a very convincing argument to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 And as I've said since late last week (even when others have congratulating PF), I favor eastern areas. But the GFS and GEFS are not encouraging at all.The trough axis all along to me has looked like something that could be productive for eastern areas...it's got that Miller B look that can deliver for eastern SNE into parts of NH/ME. It doesn't necessarily look like something that's going to cause bombing lows near NYC with huge precip shields...but I could see a bunch of light to mod type snow threats, especially BOS area as these weak waves slip underneath and easterly flow with arctic air can itself produce at least a light snow.I'm not going to comment on the ensembles or whatever looking encouraging or not, as that's all a function of locality. But at least it looks like a pattern that wouldn't support cutters, so hopefully we are done with that stuff for a little while. Cold, and dry with flurries would be an improvement from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The Thursday trough trended worse from earlier runs. That doesn't mean this one will too. It might, but that isn't a very convincing argument to me. No, I mean the current 24hr trof on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No, I mean the current 24hr trof on the NAM. I'm not sure what you mean...that one looks worse than the 84h trough...it digs SE and pinches off a bit giving a little precip shield over SE GA and SC. I mean they are similar...but the devil is in the details. This all really sounds like a semantical argument anyway. I'm favoring eastern areas with the best shot...so are you. I think it is uncertain whether it even makes it far enough west to hit them...so do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah no precip until April. People are spoiled. we didnt have precip here from Sept to Nov so maybe pattern repeats? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Eh... dunno about that. The ensemble mean shows snow but the median of all members shows nothing. So there must be a few really good members in there..despite the majority showing nil. Go big or go home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So there must be a few really good members in there..despite the majority showing nil. Go big or go home?No in this case you go 1-3 and mention the potential is there for a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 edduggs melted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 No in this case you go 1-3 and mention the potential is there for a bit morewhy would you go 1-3 as an initial forecast? You mention a slight chance of snow showers and then make changes if warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 why would you go 1-3 as an initial forecast? You mention a slight chance of snow showers and then make changes if warranted.I don't agree at all with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 That's childish. And completely false. You were all excited about a thread the needle pattern. I can find the posts if you'd like. I find it funny how you said Will was jaded by the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 why would you go 1-3 as an initial forecast? You mention a slight chance of snow showers and then make changes if warranted. I wouldn't even bother with that question haha. Starting a forecast with no accumulation is not an option for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I don't agree at all with that.we're all entitled to an opinion and I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The 0z NAM shows a really diffuse baroclinic environment over the SE on Fri as another moderately potent shortwave swings into the southeast. Shortwaves need PVA and a baroclinic environment to deepen and that is a missing ingredient for Sat. In a strong thermal gradient, a similar shortwave could really wrap itself up and initiate a positive feedback deepening process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 The 0z NAM shows a really diffuse baroclinic environment over the SE on Fri as another moderately potent shortwave swings into the southeast. Shortwaves need PVA and a baroclinic environment to deepen and that is a missing ingredient for Sat. In a strong thermal gradient, a similar shortwave could really wrap itself up and initiate a positive feedback deepening process. I think eduggs has been under too much criticism, as so have I, thrown under the bus for mentioning the fact that it looked favorable based on model guidance, especially a few EURO runs which showed promise. Look I mentioned snow, and the foreign models have shown a snowier situation than the GFS has, and in my opinion the foreign models are probably handling the PNA ridge a lot better than the GFS has been showing the last several days. A large cyclone is over Alaska and Adjacent Canada province. Near 160w and 60n so for now the disturbance still needs to be sampled better. I think it is a larger disturbance than models have right now sampled. As most of the circulation is over Alaska. I think this pattern is actually different, less progressive and more amplified upstream, with a more favorable Pacific than we have had previously this winter. It is abundantly clear, some have an agenda on this forum, to knock down any sign of optimism just so they don't get involved emotionally, I think we all fall victim to certain situations as a whole. However I agree that the 21-23rd period is best modeled as the time for a better snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Gfs going backwards in this so called threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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