eyewall Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Are we rain here verbatim on that solution? I can't get parital thicknesses on my pay source (Eurowx.com), but it would probably be wet snow to start before getting colder with time, leading to better ratios by the time it ends. The 850's are plenty cold through it all but it is a little above freezing at 2m at the onset (say 34-36 range?). Somewhere around 0.25" of QPF in your back yard in a quick hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I can't get parital thicknesses on my pay source (Eurowx.com), but it would probably be wet snow to start before getting colder with time, leading to better ratios by the time it ends. The 850's are plenty cold through it all but it is a little above freezing at 2m at the onset (say 34-36 range?). Somewhere around 0.25" of QPF in your back yard in a quick hit. Cool thanks, appreciate it. That would probably fall in line with other nickel and some events we've had this year. Couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I can't get parital thicknesses on my pay source (Eurowx.com), but it would probably be wet snow to start before getting colder with time, leading to better ratios by the time it ends. The 850's are plenty cold through it all but it is a little above freezing at 2m at the onset (say 34-36 range?). Somewhere around 0.25" of QPF in your back yard in a quick hit. Was going to say QPF looks rather measly in the East. 0.25" tailing off as you go West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Was going to say QPF looks rather measly in the East. 0.25" tailing off as you go West Yeah it is a sharp gradient for once you head NW. I would say anywhere north and west of ORH is looking at flurries to a dusting verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think there is also a threat for this to be offshore. Oh yeah, that is definitely a given. "Best shot of QPF in eastern areas" would certainly imply that wide right is on the table. Esp at 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Some of you are way too antsy. Recall a few days ago when I said if we get any snow through the 18th, consider it gravy. Heh...there's going to be overly optimistic and then overly pessimistc posters. We've got some talking about punting the rest of January already. This is definitely a "gravy" system...if it happens, great. But the best longwave pattern is behind this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 I agree that the setup might be too progressive still, but considering we have a strong +PNA the pattern is at least somewhat in favor of a stronger more amplified storm system. So right now I'd still patiently wait for the next several runs of the models before saying this threat is nothing special. Right now I would favor a slightly more amplified storm system, but benchmark track is still on the table and the coastline could get snowfall out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 The rainstorm today trended more amplified, and now look at all of that precip over the eastern US. Four days ago models had forecasted weak sauce for this system as well, models have no idea what this progressive pattern will show four days from now, give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro ens look a bit west of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That thing really starts to intensify near CHH. Maybe rain to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Seeing as you all asked and care so deeply for my opinion ... I'm on the fence for this weekend thing. Biggest pro: The strongly rising PNA ...ending some +3 SD in total by D10, has a robust statistical correlation to eastern N/A storminess (snow or rain notwithstanding...) Biggest con: The flow is so fast and spacial -temporality is causing waves to bunch up and interfere. This has actually been going on for the last many cycles, particularly in the GFS. Which, that makes a good deal of sense considering that the GFS has a fast bias. Smaller con(s) are arguments like the GGEM being so blase when it typically has a west over amplified bias at this time range. If it can't even find its way to its own bias that "might" be a red flag. Also, the yesterday's op. Euro runs were still technically out in that model's own bias range... as we are now crossing into its better range, it doesn't really set too well that this run is in fact a partial collapse toward the GFS. For now, the cons somewhat outweigh the pros; of course, this doesn't mean much should whatever relays out west comes in abruptly more potent; that's 00z/12z up-coming. Potency can off-set speed in the flow if it is sufficiently large. The latter event for the 22-23 actually has the better statistical appeal, but now this run has gone and fumbled around and f'ed both of them up. The Euro has an annoying tendency to do this (annoying for determinism...). It gets really really close to pulling the trigger, such that you can just sense the next run will really bring the house down...but then ... the next run just looks blithe and anemic. It's interesting that the Euro corrects like that, whole-scale. But ... the Euro has already proven fallible on at least one other occasion this season so, who knows -- One thing I am most impressed with is the rather aggressive -EPO that is exploding into the CDC progs. I noted yesterday that there is an intense and large area of 100mb level warm anomalies over Siberia, extending toward western Canada, and so collocated with that up underneath would be statistically favored blocking -- so seeing that evolve in last night's run is substantial for me. Meanwhile, the operational GFS brings down a mega EPO dump of probably the coldest air (at least rivaling last week's...) of the season during the closing 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Really hoping ski country can grab 3-6 inches. Still in the cards for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Pretty much John. Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 OP Euro is having a mediocre year at best. Don't forget at one point this was a major mid atlantic/NC low too. Ensembles are west of the op and don't support the OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro ens look a bit west of the op They were a good bit west, Looked like it was inside the BM or close to going over 41/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 They were a good bit west, Looked like it was inside the BM or close to going over 41/70 Yeah they looked interesting I can't see precip but I'd imagine they are better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah they looked interesting I can't see precip but I'd imagine they are better than the op. Yeah precip is probably 0.30-0.35 to ORH and maybe half inch or just shy in extreme eastern MA/SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah precip is probably 0.30-0.35 to ORH and maybe half inch or just shy in extreme eastern MA/SE MA. Guess we should call this meh than based on the obs thread from today. Only 0.5"?, pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Guess we should call this meh than based on the obs thread from today. Only 0.5"?, pathetic. White is good even at .1 wet is meh unless its 2-3", rain happens 85% of the year. No one cares unless it waters the garden and fills the wells, rest of the time, zero impact unless you have outside activities, when its gone its gone. .5 equiv of snow equals impacts to commerce, but also sticks around and is useful to play in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Guess we should call this meh than based on the obs thread from today. Only 0.5"?, pathetic. I don't get excited on any amount of rain unless its torrential. That's me personally though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I don't get excited on any amount of rain unless its torrential. That's me personally though. That was the first thread anyone ever started for a .25-.50 rain event and gentle, soothing sw winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 I don't think .5" is pathetic, .50" of QPF is 5" on 10:1 ratios, but regardless I think we have a rain to snow scenario if the SLP moves over CHH and brings decent to potent pressure falls over the region, this leads to dynamical cooling aloft. Right now its just a wait and see process, SREF 15z run is showing our storm developing south of the region, roughly near 37n: 70-75w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 This event today was originally supposed to bring .25" of QPF just about 72 hours ago, now its bringing 1-1.25" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That was the first thread anyone ever started for a .25-.50 rain event and gentle, soothing sw winds Where would you have preferred the observations go? We're supposed to break up threads for specific systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Typical NAM at 84h caveats...but as an example, you want to see this sort of amplification of the trough to get something out of this system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Where would you have preferred the observations go? . Nowhere/away is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM illustrates the potential we have with this type of energy moving in off the Gulf of Alaska into British Columbia, Canada. A huge area of low pressure is currently inland over Alaska, shows the size of the amplification of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Where would you have preferred the observations go? We're supposed to break up threads for specific systems.It's rain. No one cares about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Typical NAM at 84h caveats...but as an example, you want to see this sort of amplification of the trough to get something out of this system: Yeah and I don't know if it is worth saying this but it is a bit deeper and more neutral tilted compared to the ~ 5 to 7 dm shallower depth of the 12z run comparing 78 to 84 hours. I dunno -- until the relay comes into the B.C. coast beginning over night stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Typical NAM at 84h caveats...but as an example, you want to see this sort of amplification of the trough to get something out of this system: The 18z NAM is not nearly enough. It looks similar to the past few days' runup to the Thurs non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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