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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements

 

 

The coast is def looking better than it did at this time yesterday. The model clustering is starting to show hints of focusing on eastern New England....with the caveat that this can still change. The airmass is still marginal, so its probably going to be difficult for the Cape and right along the immediate shore.

 

We'll see what the Euro does shortly.

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The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements

FWIW, I like this area moving forward as well. If we can sustain decent cold air, we should have plenty or chances for nickel and dime events, and possibly a few bigger ones mixed in

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The coast is def looking better than it did at this time yesterday. The model clustering is starting to show hints of focusing on eastern New England....with the caveat that this can still change. The airmass is still marginal, so its probably going to be difficult for the Cape and right along the immediate shore.

 

We'll see what the Euro does shortly.

There is only one GFS Ensm. member that looks remotely enticing to me.

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There is only one GFS Ensm. member that looks remotely enticing to me.

 

 

Yeah if you are going for the home run in this...p005.

 

An advisory type event would be more likely in this setup IMHO. Though the Euro and its ensembles were a bit more bullish last night.

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How far back would snow get? Would it get back to ALB or maybe MPM?

 

 

It's too early to tell. I'm thinking it might be tough to get meaningful snow back to ALB...but we'll see. This system hasn't been modeled all that well thus far in terms of consistency. The trend has def been east though the last 24 hours. But we need to keep in mind its still about 4 days out, so a solid jump back west wouldn't be shocking.

 

The progressive nature of the trough makes me blieve that getting it really far west (like up over interior SNE) might be difficult.

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Yeah if you are going for the home run in this...p005.

 

An advisory type event would be more likely in this setup IMHO. Though the Euro and its ensembles were a bit more bullish last night.

That's not even really a home run.  The last several days have usually featured one "blizzard" ensemble member per cycle.  The 12z GEFs look especially uninspiring. 

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I'd take 2-3 " if i could get it

 

 

Yeah I think that is where I'd keep the optimistic expectations on this one...like low end advisory stuff.

 

There's a chance it could blow up more like the 00z Euro showed, but the progressiveness of the trough makes it tough.

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Euro is very progressive now and stronger with the clipper in the Midwest. Very light event with marginal temps along coast

Too much energy in the Lakes day after day after day.  When one wave moves out, another moves right in on its heels.

That's the way Leon rolls.

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I think there is also a threat for this to be offshore.

It seems like the euro has been way to amped up with these disturbances in the medium range, only to go back to a progressive look as we get closer. At one time it was amped up for Thursday costal event, that is now ots.

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