ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements The coast is def looking better than it did at this time yesterday. The model clustering is starting to show hints of focusing on eastern New England....with the caveat that this can still change. The airmass is still marginal, so its probably going to be difficult for the Cape and right along the immediate shore. We'll see what the Euro does shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Not worth watching unless you are north of route 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements FWIW, I like this area moving forward as well. If we can sustain decent cold air, we should have plenty or chances for nickel and dime events, and possibly a few bigger ones mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The coast is def looking better than it did at this time yesterday. The model clustering is starting to show hints of focusing on eastern New England....with the caveat that this can still change. The airmass is still marginal, so its probably going to be difficult for the Cape and right along the immediate shore. We'll see what the Euro does shortly. There is only one GFS Ensm. member that looks remotely enticing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 There is only one GFS Ensm. member that looks remotely enticing to me. Yeah if you are going for the home run in this...p005. An advisory type event would be more likely in this setup IMHO. Though the Euro and its ensembles were a bit more bullish last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah if you are going for the home run in this...p005. An advisory type event would be more likely in this setup IMHO. Though the Euro and its ensembles were a bit more bullish last night. How far back would snow get? Would it get back to ALB or maybe MPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 How far back would snow get? Would it get back to ALB or maybe MPM? It's too early to tell. I'm thinking it might be tough to get meaningful snow back to ALB...but we'll see. This system hasn't been modeled all that well thus far in terms of consistency. The trend has def been east though the last 24 hours. But we need to keep in mind its still about 4 days out, so a solid jump back west wouldn't be shocking. The progressive nature of the trough makes me blieve that getting it really far west (like up over interior SNE) might be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Here is the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah if you are going for the home run in this...p005. An advisory type event would be more likely in this setup IMHO. Though the Euro and its ensembles were a bit more bullish last night. That's not even really a home run. The last several days have usually featured one "blizzard" ensemble member per cycle. The 12z GEFs look especially uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro is ok. At best advisory snows for someone favoring interior eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro is weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Gives me some snow so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro is very progressive now and stronger with the clipper in the Midwest. Very light event with marginal temps along coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Well we end the warmup with some winter and we go to town after MLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro is ok. At best advisory snows for someone favoring interior eastern areas. That's where this one is headed IMHO...it seems the trough is quite progressive, so eastern areas will have the best shot of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 From 988mb at 0z, To 1000mb at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro is very progressive now and stronger with the clipper in the Midwest. Very light event with marginal temps along coast Too much energy in the Lakes day after day after day. When one wave moves out, another moves right in on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'd take 2-3 " if i could get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I like the sounds of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'd take 2-3 " if i could get it Yeah I think that is where I'd keep the optimistic expectations on this one...like low end advisory stuff. There's a chance it could blow up more like the 00z Euro showed, but the progressiveness of the trough makes it tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro is very progressive now and stronger with the clipper in the Midwest. Very light event with marginal temps along coast Too much energy in the Lakes day after day after day. When one wave moves out, another moves right in on its heels. That's the way Leon rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That's where this one is headed IMHO...it seems the trough is quite progressive, so eastern areas will have the best shot of QPF. I think there is also a threat for this to be offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 From 988mb at 0z, To 1000mb at 12z OP Euro is having a mediocre year at best. Don't forget at one point this was a major mid atlantic/NC low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think there is also a threat for this to be offshore. It seems like the euro has been way to amped up with these disturbances in the medium range, only to go back to a progressive look as we get closer. At one time it was amped up for Thursday costal event, that is now ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Some of you are way too antsy. Recall a few days ago when I said if we get any snow through the 18th, consider it gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll take it.Yup me too. This is a nickel and dime winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The Euro says nice hits for Georges Bank on the 12z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The Euro says nice hits for Georges Bank on the 12z op. Llllleeeeeeooooooonnnn ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Are we rain here verbatim on that solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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