weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 A bit too soon to write this one off. Lets give it another cycle of runs and let's see once inside 84-96 hours. Its not like all of a sudden models are infallible @ the 120 hr range. The problem is the lack of cold until it's gone and the unlikelihood of a big wound nip system that draws cold. That's my call and of course I can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The problem is the lack of cold until it's gone and the unlikelihood of a big wound nip system that draws cold. That's my call and of course I can be wrong. I would agree. Nothing is impossible, but I'm with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I would agree. Nothing is impossible, but I'm with you. I think we kept throwing out the 1/18 date or 1/20 date as when stuff really starts to become more favorable again...anything before that was pure gravy if it happened. The 1/18-19 threat is marginal, but it could work out. The interior and further north would obviously be in the best position given the marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think we kept throwing out the 1/18 date or 1/20 date as when stuff really starts to become more favorable again...anything before that was pure gravy if it happened. The 1/18-19 threat is marginal, but it could work out. The interior and further north would obviously be in the best position given the marginal airmass. Yeah the shades fully open comment...lol. It's something to watch, but I'm not really excited yet...especially here on the coast. Might be a little different where you are, but the whole thing seems more for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Paste bomb on the Euro...even for the CP of SNE on this run along and NW roughly BOS-PVD. Manages to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Very good euro run up here for Saturday, Some snow Monday with the s/w bringing in the colder air mass and the follow up coastal low on weds, If it all pans out, Would make this last 7 days or so a distant memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Threat after threat after threat on the EURO, I'd be really excited if I lived in NE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nice run...quite a few of the ecens have a big hit too. It's still too early to fall in love with solutions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Paste bombs don't seem to work out too well as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Scooter says YES!! WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy2h Big snow possible across Northeast under bitter cold pattern. Latest European snowfall accumulation forecast! pic.twitter.com/1AKW7XoUGU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Scooter says YES!! WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy2h Big snow possible across Northeast under bitter cold pattern. Latest European snowfall accumulation forecast! pic.twitter.com/1AKW7XoUGU I'm not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm not working. Congrats and feel better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 HPC (my BFF) says nothing particularly cold for the next 7 days. But they do have low pressure along the coast that seem to eventually get pushed up to the north of Maine. I assume this is because of Atlantic ridging. Does this help to eventually build the ridging further north by pumping more warm air up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Congrats and feel better! Off, but yes am sick.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hopefully I'm wrong about the threat in this thread. I'm just happy that we will shed this abortiion of a pattern next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Off, but yes am sick.. Yeah we can always tell when you're sick. May the rrhea..go away soon. 2 days.. 2 days left in the period Snowy Weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro ensembles are bullish on this one too...and yes, the interior and places like NH and ME would be in the best spots, but like we saw on the OP run, you cannot rule out closer to the coast getting in on the action. I'd like to see some more support by other guidance though. Euro and its ensmebles are the western outlier at the moment and we are still 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro ensembles are bullish on this one too...and yes, the interior and places like NH and ME would be in the best spots, but like we saw on the OP run, you cannot rule out closer to the coast getting in on the action. I'd like to see some more support by other guidance though. Euro and its ensmebles are the western outlier at the moment and we are still 4+ days out. There must be some eastern members because that is a cold look for a low track like that. I wouldn't expect those 850 temps of -4 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Euro ensembles are bullish on this one too...and yes, the interior and places like NH and ME would be in the best spots, but like we saw on the OP run, you cannot rule out closer to the coast getting in on the action. I'd like to see some more support by other guidance though. Euro and its ensmebles are the western outlier at the moment and we are still 4+ days out. There must be some eastern members because that is a cold look for a low track like that. I wouldn't expect those 850 temps of -4 here. Is there any southerly component to the spread? That would lend more credence to a deeper/colder solution, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS starting to show signs of life for this threat...much deeper trough on the 12z run. A step towards the Euro suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS starting to show signs of life for this threat...much deeper trough on the 12z run. A step towards the Euro suite. Looked better at H5 then 06z, But still a little late at the surface, Steps in a positive direction though so the trend is favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Still think we are rain in this area regardless. North and west I think could be in for a real fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I like where I am for this one; hopefully the track continues to track more towards the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I am getting the toaster bath ready here in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I like where I am for this one; hopefully the track continues to track more towards the east No doubt in my mind it trends eastward, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS starting to show signs of life for this threat...much deeper trough on the 12z run. A step towards the Euro suite. I also thought the NAM made strides as well. Extrapolating it--probably better than the GFS. Taken with a grain of salt bc it is the NAM and it is 84H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 TWC 10 day forecast just went straight "SNOW" for Saturday. We could definitely use that refresher after this break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Days 1 looks the same as day 3 on the guidance Actually if you overlay hour 18 with hour 66, the height field looks pretty close. It might be miss after miss until this standing wave trof pulls out and we can start over with some southern stream influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Still think we are rain in this area regardless. North and west I think could be in for a real fun time. The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements I agree it could for sure end up white here as well. I just don't like marginal events with marginal cold air. It's really playing with fire. If we got snow from this, that would be total gravy IMO. I wasn't expecting anything legitimate until 1/22 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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