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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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A bit too soon to write this one off. Lets give it another cycle of runs and let's see once inside 84-96 hours. Its not like all of a sudden models are infallible @ the 120 hr range.

The problem is the lack of cold until it's gone and the unlikelihood of a big wound nip system that draws cold. That's my call and of course I can be wrong.

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I would agree. Nothing is impossible, but I'm with you.

 

 

I think we kept throwing out the 1/18 date or 1/20 date as when stuff really starts to become more favorable again...anything before that was pure gravy if it happened.

 

The 1/18-19 threat is marginal, but it could work out. The interior and further north would obviously be in the best position given the marginal airmass.

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I think we kept throwing out the 1/18 date or 1/20 date as when stuff really starts to become more favorable again...anything before that was pure gravy if it happened.

 

The 1/18-19 threat is marginal, but it could work out. The interior and further north would obviously be in the best position given the marginal airmass.

 

Yeah the shades fully open comment...lol. It's something to watch, but I'm not really excited yet...especially here on the coast. Might be a little different where you are, but the whole thing seems more for NNE.

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HPC (my BFF) says nothing particularly cold for the next 7 days.  But they do have low pressure along the coast that seem to eventually get pushed up to the north of Maine.  I assume this is because of Atlantic ridging.  Does this help to eventually build the ridging further north by pumping more warm air up there?

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Euro ensembles are bullish on this one too...and yes, the interior and places like NH and ME would be in the best spots, but like we saw on the OP run, you cannot rule out closer to the coast getting in on the action.

 

I'd like to see some more support by other guidance though. Euro and its ensmebles are the western outlier at the moment and we are still 4+ days out.

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Euro ensembles are bullish on this one too...and yes, the interior and places like NH and ME would be in the best spots, but like we saw on the OP run, you cannot rule out closer to the coast getting in on the action.

I'd like to see some more support by other guidance though. Euro and its ensmebles are the western outlier at the moment and we are still 4+ days out.

There must be some eastern members because that is a cold look for a low track like that. I wouldn't expect those 850 temps of -4 here.

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Euro ensembles are bullish on this one too...and yes, the interior and places like NH and ME would be in the best spots, but like we saw on the OP run, you cannot rule out closer to the coast getting in on the action.

 

I'd like to see some more support by other guidance though. Euro and its ensmebles are the western outlier at the moment and we are still 4+ days out.

 

 

There must be some eastern members because that is a cold look for a low track like that. I wouldn't expect those 850 temps of -4 here.

 

Is there any southerly component to the spread?  That would lend more credence to a deeper/colder solution, no?

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GFS starting to show signs of life for this threat...much deeper trough on the 12z run. A step towards the Euro suite.

I also thought the NAM made strides as well.   Extrapolating it--probably better than the GFS.  Taken with a grain of salt bc it is the NAM and it is 84H

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The GGEM is snow right to the coast. There are scenarios that can still play out white here. But still need a few more improvements

I agree it could for sure end up white here as well. I just don't like marginal events with marginal cold air. It's really playing with fire.

If we got snow from this, that would be total gravy IMO. I wasn't expecting anything legitimate until 1/22 and beyond.

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