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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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This is kind of an "ugly" system in terms of how it develops...it could end up anywhere in like a 300 mile wid zone and its mid-level circulation is pretty convoluted in how it develops. It could honestly end up being a solid system for interior SNE...your area...Maine...or none of the above. Hell, if it was wrapped up enough, it could track over your head. :lol:

Another 36 hours should bring this one into much better focus.

Yeah, that's why it's not worth trying to get invested in. It looks like it could be anywhere. Without blocking the thing sort of just moves on its own depending on where it strengthens...like you said, stronger packet of energy and deeper low could rain, weaker could wiff. Threading the needle all the time.

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Interior means a lot of things to different people here. 

 

Show me where I have called this a non-event.  The models presently are a non-event for SNE.  I have not been specific about a final solution at all.  Not one model looks great for SNE right now.  Sure good trends can happen but conversely negative trends can happen too.  That why you only discuss what the models show verbatim until you have a better/clearer consensus.

 

I don't care about my location.  It's just snow.

 

 

I'm not sure what you are arguing then.

 

Last year, the March event was a whiff at 120 hours...not one model showed us getting hammered. Yet, 2 feet later in some spots......

 

It's ok to discuss models non-verbatim sometimes. The pattern can support a system. I would disagree with your assertion that no models show anything good for SNE. The elevated interior gets hit on the Euro (esp N ORH hills and Berkshires)...the Euro does change to rain eventually but there is a good thump of snow in spots in SNE before that. The GGEM gives eastern SNE an advisory type event. UKMET I cannot tell with the 24 hour increments, but it looked like another track with potential as it has the low near Norfolk at 120h and over Nova Scotia at 144.

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I am invested

 

 

Lol...setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

 

I'd just use this one to peek out from behind the drawn shades for the next couple days to see how it looks...if it trends a lot better, then get invested. Until then, keep them drawn except for some brief glimpses.

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Well ... certainly an entertaining run of the operational Euro this 12z, don't you think? 

 

That Friday deal is a snow bomb on the synoptic appeal -- though, like many I do not have access to the intermediate intervals, this run has a negative tilted trough cutting over the MA with low [apparently] bombing as it is passing just off shore. 850mb mean is around -2C and falling (I would think by dynamical forcing) given this over all evolution. 

 

D5 though hmmm....

 

I have been bitching about it recently that this HUGE PNA rise was remarkably mundane in the various guidance types because usually such a large mass field modality requires an event or two to balance.  I am sure that has happened at some point in Terran history, sure...just less likely.   We had been dealing with a lot deconstructive wave interference in the GFS,  and still are, but does have some reflection along the coast around the same time frames.  Interesting. 

 

By the way ... I would suggest that the D8/9 trough amplification has a bit more probability for success than is typical, relative to this type of time lead. 

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Euro ensembles are east of the OP (no surprise)...looks like they track it over E MA, though an awful lot of spread.

 

 

One to watch for sure. I'd like to be at Sunday River for this one for the lowest chance of missing on this one.

Dang.  10 days too late.  Amazing ice up there.  Locals at a supermarket in Bethel were talking about how this is the worst ice they've seen since '73 or '74.  Take that FWIW.  Idk Maine climo or their history well.

 

Shades drawn at least another 5 days here.  Late March feel on my run today.

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Dang. 10 days too late. Amazing ice up there. Locals at a supermarket in Bethel were talking about how this is the worst ice they've seen since '73 or '74. Take that FWIW. Idk Maine climo or their history well.

Shades drawn at least another 5 days here. Late March feel on my run today.

IGA in Bethel? How was the skiing?
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Dang.  10 days too late.  Amazing ice up there.  Locals at a supermarket in Bethel were talking about how this is the worst ice they've seen since '73 or '74.  Take that FWIW.  Idk Maine climo or their history well.

 

Shades drawn at least another 5 days here.  Late March feel on my run today.

 

Ice was bad here, But not as epic as 1998 was down this way, Bethal did not get it as bad in 1998 as they were more sleet i think

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I think this is the big snow threat of the mid Month period.  Although EURO is a little too far northwest for the coastal plain, I like where we stand for this event currently.  Amplified flow, not as progressive as it has been previously with a strong +PNA ridge in place.  Without blocking in the North Atlantic Ocean, the flow ahead of any trough over the eastern US might actually tend to trend eastward.  So there are conflicting signals.

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I think this is the big snow threat of the mid Month period.  Although EURO is a little too far northwest for the coastal plain, I like where we stand for this event currently.  Amplified flow, not as progressive as it has been previously with a strong +PNA ridge in place.  Without blocking in the North Atlantic Ocean, the flow ahead of any trough over the eastern US might actually tend to trend eastward.  So there are conflicting signals.

You're getting nothing from this. Wait till after MLK jimbo.

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