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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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really sucks I will be down in the snow pit, probably interesting up near Woodstock where the family will be tomorrow while I slave away.

What did you mean about timing? Do you see it hanging on later? 

 

I'll be in Death Valley - and you can be sure we'll get nothing here since I remembered to put the snow board out. 

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To me, precip development is the bigger issue for interior areas like ORH and Ray. Perhaps Kevin too. I don't see how the interior will be that mild...seems like its more precip placement and development and not boundary layer...especially to start. It may warm over CT.

 

Especially with precip ongoing. If it shuts off some places in SNE might struggle to keep it all snow.

 

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I was suprised that The Rent was so low. lol

 

 

Too bad my trip to Bath will consist of only a couple inches per that map.  Hopefully things will trend cooler.

 

Given the fact that Portland is 29/23 right now and precip should work in around or before noon I'm not sure that there is much "torching" for the coast now. GFS and NAM Bufkit are all snow for Portland.

 

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Well, that will make our 7 hour+ drive worthwhile then......

thanks for the welcome up this way. We Plan/hope to settle down in NH in a few years while most choose to head south.

nice enjoy, 395 495 is an easier ride but definitely snowier, beep on your way by exit 92 if you take 395,lol, have fun bro, be safe
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nice enjoy, 395 495 is an easier ride but definitely snowier, beep on your way by exit 92 if you take 395,lol, have fun bro, be safe

Cool...just put a set of new tires on my honda pilot this week...great timing.....

Will do and When we return home, I'll keep on reading you NE folks from afar until We join you up this way permanently!

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GFS BUFKIT sounding at 15z tomorrow is weenie paradise for ORH. Total Totals also spike at 54 by 18z with the sounding well below freezing through the event. 

 

If you look at the OKX and CHH 00z soundings there is some torch lurking right above the decoupled boundary layer. Some ugly +5C right around 975mb. Watch for that to advect inland a bit as the easterly/southeasterly flow strengthens. Some of that will be offset by evaporational cooling, however.

 

Other thing to note is that if you look at the omega profiles on the GFS they look pretty paltry here in CT. Some UVM especially up in the mid troposphere around 500mb thanks to some strong DCVA as that shortwave rotates through. Up toward ORH there's much strong omega right from 800-700mb as well (right in the snow growth zone) which is thanks to a mid level low pinching off nearby - almost giving you a band of frontogenesis/comma head snow along the Pike and points north. 

 

Should be a sharp cut off from the haves and have nots. Still think given the convective nature of this the hill towns in CT could pull off a quick 1 or 2" and once you get from ORH points northeast along 495 and especially toward the Monadocks, Lakes Region, and even the seacoast 2"-5" is a decent bet. 

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A little concerning that the EC and GFS would probably be a warning event for part of the area. Until we know where that trof focuses though I can't pull the trigger. Heavy handed advisory it is.

 

Real tough forecast, its been a challenging night putting northeast TAFs together.

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Real tough forecast, its been a challenging night putting northeast TAFs together.

 

If I were to warn on forecast right now, I would have Strafford, and the interiors of York and Rockingham in a warning. But confidence is not quite there to pull the trigger. Just a smattering of 6.2" or 6.3" amounts right now for those zones.

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If I were to warn on forecast right now, I would have Strafford, and the interiors of York and Rockingham in a warning. But confidence is not quite there to pull the trigger. Just a smattering of 6.2" or 6.3" amounts right now for those zones.

 

Seems reasonable, not a high confidence forecast to say the least

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Well another toaster bath in VT. You can tell BTV is getting tired of it too, adding emotions to the AFD, haha. But we'll "get ours" sometime I guess (sigh).

&& Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... as of 400 am EST Saturday...challenging forecast over the next 24 hours as models continue to struggle to resolve surface and middle level features and their associated moisture and lift. Have made several modifications from the previous forecast based on changes in guidance...generally offering much less snow (sigh) across most of the north country today and tonight.

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