CT Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Just slammed this together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Almost a nowcasting thing now. Love the way the returns have blossomed off the jersey coast south of LI and their trajectory over the past hour and a half. 29.4/24 Good stuff. 2-4" of paste looks good here...maybe a 5-spot just to my nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 That's a good map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 This has nothing to do with leon. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Precip blossoming over SC and NC, this is the area we need to watch for potential involvement in the overall development of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah Ray, Will and I talked about the whole timing too. Basically saying unless precip sh*t the bed, no way it's rain inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Soundings are borderline here. It'd 29F now, but it will tickle warmer aloft. Man one more tick east like the 00z had and it gets interesting. Thinking it may actually snow here briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Not really thinking it snows here on Cape Cod but anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 30F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Harv went with a slushy mix inside of rt 128, 1-2" outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'll be interested to see what the NMM and ARW show with the 00z run. NMM had a 984mb low just east of CHH in its 12z run, while the ARW had close to 1.75" of QPF over Cape Cod Bay. Right now precip is beginning to blossom as trough swings neutral to negative in the next 3-9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Harv went with a slushy mix inside of rt 128, 1-2" outside. Tough call. Would like to see the euro agree too. I think you may be in a good spot...but the only issue I see is if this does not develop as modeled by the GFS. To me, it's not boundary layer temps that are the issue....it's how this develops. I think it will blossom overhead tomorrow...but you will also depend on omega to keep your precip snow. It's not a lock that you get advisory snow...but it is looking better for sure...I feel like you are in a good spot. GFS really pounded you hard and fast...the way you prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 The ARW likes this storm more than the NMM, which is odd, normally its the NMM that has more precip and QPF than the ARW, but this time its the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wow outside looking in here?What? It's pretty much a nowcast deal with these things...they change so much from run to run and model to model. You just look for the most favorable areas and then factor some climo into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Tickle tickle. 29.7F. Dimly lit moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Not understanding the timing Ryan layed out, In before sunrise out before noon, radar and obs seem to indicate slower?? Secondary forming off NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 This has nothing to do with leon. Stop.You totally missed the point, last minute blow up, nothing about the pattern, calm your thong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 You totally missed the point, last minute blow up, nothing about the pattern, calm your thong. Leon this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 What? It's pretty much a nowcast deal with these things...they change so much from run to run and model to model. You just look for the most favorable areas and then factor some climo into it.Ah I was looking at the rgem precip. Most was just east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 NMM and ARW are now mostly drier with the overall trough and surface low than their 12z counterparts. Question is are they right, or is the GFS and NAM right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Just drove up from Philly area tonight... Heading from mystic ct to Portsmouth nh Saturday.... What should I expect? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Leon this.pretty soon lassy, 94 records going to be falling faster than the ball out of Welkers hand in a Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Just drove up from Philly area tonight... Heading from mystic ct to Portsmouth nh Saturday.... What should I expect? Thanks! little traffic, take 395 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 NMM and ARW are now mostly drier with the overall trough and surface low than their 12z counterparts. Question is are they right, or is the GFS and NAM right.Printed photos of ARW/NMM maps make for good TP when the roll runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Not understanding the timing Ryan layed out, In before sunrise out before noon, radar and obs seem to indicate slower?? Secondary forming off NJ coast The hires stuff has some light crap moving in as early as 5am... still I think whatever we get is really a 12z-18z show... if we get a thump it's becuase of some decent banding shortly after daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Printed photos of ARW/NMM maps make for good TP when the roll runs out.Lol, unless the dews are high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 little traffic, take 395 Thanks for the tip...and, as for snow amounts along the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Ah I was looking at the rgem precip. Most was just east of here.Well it screws us, but I won't be worried unless the euro backs way off. Just keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Just slammed this together.Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The hires stuff has some light crap moving in as early as 5am... still I think whatever we get is really a 12z-18z show... if we get a thump it's becuase of some decent banding shortly after daybreak.really sucks I will be down in the snow pit, probably interesting up near Woodstock where the family will be tomorrow while I slave away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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