Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Cold pool SWs have a way of overacheiving. Like Ryan said that is a Berks special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Jeez, I'm already 26.5/22. I'd still much rather live at 1k like you despite my scoring on low temps. Well, you also kept your snow. Was really surprised to see the cover in Shelburne Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Jeez, I'm already 26.5/22. I'd still much rather live at 1k like you despite my scoring on low temps.29.8F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Cold pool SWs have a way of overacheiving. Like Ryan said that is a Berks special. Does anyone have an estimated start time for out this way? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Remember his "innocuous" post the other day.." Hey guys , what date did we have a T last week, I forgot to log it". Then he puts it down as a half inch. Lol. Gotta make sure we include all dustings LOL!!! I don't remember seeing that post but reading just now from you had me busting a gut for a good few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Sorta looks 10:1 euro.It was a blend of the nam, sref, gfs, euro, hpc qpf and rfc qpf with around a 10:1 ratio where there was snow in the wx grids (we slammed the BL temps down to 32-33 when the strong uvv's arrived). It will probably be a bit conservative in some areas. I think a few folks will see 6 inches in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It was a blend of the nam, sref, gfs, euro, hpc qpf and rfc qpf with around a 10:1 ratio where there was snow in the wx grids (we slammed the BL temps down to 32-33 when the strong uvv's arrived). It will probably be a bit conservative in some areas. I think a few folks will see 6 inches in 3 hours.hi impact stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 hi impact stuff Any snow for you and me with this? Or are we just out of range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It was a blend of the nam, sref, gfs, euro, hpc qpf and rfc qpf with around a 10:1 ratio where there was snow in the wx grids (we slammed the BL temps down to 32-33 when the strong uvv's arrived). It will probably be a bit conservative in some areas. I think a few folks will see 6 inches in 3 hours.Is that warning criteria for you folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 new ZFP is calilng for 1-3", Albany calling for 2-4. Seems like a win if the higher of those two ranges works out. BTW--I like the way you can click from the BOX snowfall map to the neighboring office's maps. Helpful addition. Yeah. Nice new feature. Esp for you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Current GYX map ... I'll be happy if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 LOL... gotta love the NAM. Not a drop of QPF for most of CT tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Is that warning criteria for you folks? Criteria up there is 7", so probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 LOL... gotta love the NAM. Not a drop of QPF for most of CT tomorrow morning. Except for Tolland. The state boundary may say CT, but we all know it is NNE there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Is that warning criteria for you folks?yes, it's generally 6+ inches in 12 hours or less (or a minimum range of 4-8")...but in order to verify you need to have 6" more over half of any given zone. I wouldnt be suprised if some get it depending on how the bl temps shake out...some qpf will probably be wasted for a short time at the beginning. But i could see a warning eventually needing to be hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It can happen... latitude matters. Growing up in this region, what happens at the airport happens in Hartford. Once in a while, latitude may do something- but I'd forget about it for the most part. Bradley/Hartford/Springfield are one and the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 yes, it's generally 6+ inches in 12 hours or less (or a minimum range of 4-8")...but in order to verify you need to have 6" more over half of any given zone. I wouldnt be suprised if some get it depending on how the bl temps shake out...some qpf will probably be wasted for a short time at the beginning. But i could see a warning eventually needing to be hoisted. I thought you had a 7" threshold. What's your take for p-type up in Bath? Might they hold on to all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 LOL... gotta love the NAM. Not a drop of QPF for most of CT tomorrow morning.Consistent as a Swiss watchWell...maybe a piece of Swiss cheese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Growing up in this region, what happens at the airport happens in Hartford. Once in a while, latitude may do something- but I'd forget about it for the most part. Bradley/Hartford/Springfield are one and the same. I disagree with that. BDL averages nearly 10" more of snow per season than HFD. There are many times BDL is hanging on to snow while HFD has flipped. That said Brainard Field isn't exactly representative of must of suburban Hartford... it's near sea level and on the far southeastern corner of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Except for Tolland. The state boundary may say CT, but we all know it is NNE there. NAM is actually 0.07" of rain on Mount Tolland. Has 2m temps near 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I thought you had a 7" threshold. What's your take for p-type up in Bath? Might they hold on to all snow? it's 6 inches in 12 hours, 9 inches in 24. Advisory is 4 inches. As for bath they should do ok once the uvv's kick in unless the coastal front wants to snuggle up to you for awhile. Our forecast there is probably a bit low but confidence today was pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 NAM is actually 0.07" of rain on Mount Tolland. Has 2m temps near 40F. seems warm. Even I'm at 30 right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 seems warm. Even I'm at 30 right now... NAM looks way out to lunch. Toss it. 21z SREFs look much closer to what the GFS has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 NAM not looking too hot anymore. Really toned the event down. No more closed H7 low and UVVs get shunted east pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Nam keeps things mainly offshore it seems. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Nam keeps things mainly offshore it seems. Lovely. High stakes forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 High stakes forecastYeah. But...it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 NAM looks way out to lunch. Toss it. 21z SREFs look much closer to what the GFS has been showing.there is a very good consensus right now that disputes the nam. We'll see how the rest of the suite lines up. Tricky situation to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 lol that is a huge change from the 12z run, wow. From closed mid-levels and good moisture advection deep into New England to a flat open wave with more of a snow shower appeal with maybe some steady light snow along the ME coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 it's 6 inches in 12 hours, 9 inches in 24. Advisory is 4 inches. As for bath they should do ok once the uvv's kick in unless the coastal front wants to snuggle up to you for awhile. Our forecast there is probably a bit low but confidence today was pretty low. Thanks--I'll post conditions as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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