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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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Models just evolving. This is a legit snow threat for much of SNE

 

 

If this thing can track out over ACK or Cape Cod or something, then it would def have some potential for solid accumulations for much of SNE away from the immediate coastline.

 

Without a good high, the coast will struggle in this one...though perhaps northern coastal areas (maybe BOS north) could get a paste job out of it if we thread the needle.

 

 

I'd keep expectations pretty low even for places like N ORH hills, but it bears watching.

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If this thing can track out over ACK or Cape Cod or something, then it would def have some potential for solid accumulations for much of SNE away from the immediate coastline.

Without a good high, the coast will struggle in this one...though perhaps northern coastal areas (maybe BOS north) could get a paste job out of it if we thread the needle.

I'd keep expectations pretty low even for places like N ORH hills, but it bears watching.

Maybe a few resort snows before the change. Pretty much as we thought. Transition, wet transition week incoming.

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If this thing can track out over ACK or Cape Cod or something, then it would def have some potential for solid accumulations for much of SNE away from the immediate coastline.

Without a good high, the coast will struggle in this one...though perhaps northern coastal areas (maybe BOS north) could get a paste job out of it if we thread the needle.

I'd keep expectations pretty low even for places like N ORH hills, but it bears watching.

Bobs already told everyone south of route 2 they're all getting rain so I guess we shouldn't watch it
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It gave ORH about 3 inches before the flip.

 

 

It wouldn't take much of a shift for it to be mostly/all snow in the interior. It is 5 days out after all.

 

It wouldn't take much to be all rain too but why not discuss that option.  Oh that's right we can only talk snow and "positives", no negatives.

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It wouldn't take much to be all rain too but why not discuss that option.  Oh that's right we can only talk snow and "positives", no negatives.

 

 

I dunno where I was doing that?

 

Sure it could be rain...I specifically said that I wouldn't be very confident and to keep expectations low. But simply broadbrushing this is a non-threat at 5 days out isn't very sound either. Granted, I wouldn't feel good at all about it in your area, but further NW I could see it being a bigger deal.

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Congrats PF.

Been a really long time since I've heard that. I'm not really paying attention though until 3-days out, lol. I'll let you guys hash it out until then (this is about as low confidence as I've had in winter in a long time, haha)...always fun to watch Blizz do everything he can do bring snow to CT while others "rain" on his parade. I can tell us in VT aren't the only antsy ones, haha.

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I think this trends bigger in future runs.  Why?  Because of the +PNA with a large ridge over the western US and Rockies, Denver, CO could be in the 50s this weekend.  Trough digs over the eastern states, we are getting a big storm, whether or not its rain or snow for the coastal plain is mute at this point in time.

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Been a really long time since I've heard that. I'm not really paying attention though until 3-days out, lol. I'll let you guys hash it out until then (this is about as low confidence as I've had in winter in a long time, haha)...always fun to watch Blizz do everything he can do bring snow to CT while others "rain" on his parade. I can tell us in VT aren't the only antsy ones, haha.

 

 

This is kind of an "ugly" system in terms of how it develops...it could end up anywhere in like a 300 mile wid zone and its mid-level circulation is pretty convoluted in how it develops. It could honestly end up being a solid system for interior SNE...your area...Maine...or none of the above. Hell, if it was wrapped up enough, it could track over your head. :lol:

 

Another 36 hours should bring this one into much better focus.

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I dunno where I was doing that?

 

Sure it could be rain...I specifically said that I wouldn't be very confident and to keep expectations low. But simply broadbrushing this is a non-threat at 5 days out isn't very sound either. Granted, I wouldn't feel good at all about it in your area, but further NW I could see it being a bigger deal.

 

Interior means a lot of things to different people here. 

 

Show me where I have called this a non-event.  The models presently are a non-event for SNE.  I have not been specific about a final solution at all.  Not one model looks great for SNE right now.  Sure good trends can happen but conversely negative trends can happen too.  That why you only discuss what the models show verbatim until you have a better/clearer consensus.

 

I don't care about my location.  It's just snow.

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