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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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Flow strengthens out of the southeast especially just off the deck. Looks warmest around 950mb. Mini torch there getting advected in from ACK. 

 

I think the bl gets too warm, but given low level thicknesses appear to be low enough where as if the heavier bands of precip develop like the hires models indicate almost around 1.75" of QPF over Cape Cod Bay just east of BOS, on the ARW, they are quite bullish over the region.

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Flow strengthens out of the southeast especially just off the deck. Looks warmest around 950mb. Mini torch there getting advected in from ACK. 

 

 

That's actually what happened in Kevin's 2010 MLK weekend meltdown...when we had that 2nd disturbance the day after the main storm, the 850 temps were plenty cold, like -4C or something. But we had a ripping 950mb flow from the SSE...the result was a period of moderate rain in Tolland while we got like 3-5" of paste in ORH on silver dollar flakes...and of course Kevin's meltdown ensued. :lol:

 

The one is kind of similar in that sense...though this time I could see a burst of snow in the morning for CT before it warms up.

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So, any chance of snow at my respective locales? (andover/southie)

 

Andover yes, Southhie probably not. NAM seems to like NH though, but it gives a quick omega burst in NE MA before some warmer air moves in. NAM is still a bit warm for BED, but further NW would probably be ok. Tough call..because it could be 36F catpaws if the omega is not quite there. I

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Looks like high end advisory, GYX just has out a HWO attm, Looks like 4-6" totals with maybe some higher amounts

 

  • Saturday Rain and snow likely before noon, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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50% probs for 4"+ on the SREFs from C NH into W ME. I love when these sneaky little events pop up inside of 48-72hrs.

 

I think you guys are going to do fairly well relative to any previous indication may have led folks to think...

 

Not to make this about me, but I also think us folks along Rt E of roughtly Orange and points N might just get clipped, too...Thing is, is the 00z's come in just that much more "kinked" and so forth we may get this down to the Pike, too. 

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18Z GFS is really juiced. Warning criteria NH into ME. Probably the higher terrain of N ORH county and possibly NE MA too depending on the BL.

James started this thread 5 days ago with an initial idea of a threat, I immediately questioned it. I apologize, all though farther north than originally thought this threat is now real. Congrats Dendrite
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