jamesnichols1989 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Flow strengthens out of the southeast especially just off the deck. Looks warmest around 950mb. Mini torch there getting advected in from ACK. I think the bl gets too warm, but given low level thicknesses appear to be low enough where as if the heavier bands of precip develop like the hires models indicate almost around 1.75" of QPF over Cape Cod Bay just east of BOS, on the ARW, they are quite bullish over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 37.8 currently. Stayed in the 30's today and yesterday. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Flow strengthens out of the southeast especially just off the deck. Looks warmest around 950mb. Mini torch there getting advected in from ACK. That's actually what happened in Kevin's 2010 MLK weekend meltdown...when we had that 2nd disturbance the day after the main storm, the 850 temps were plenty cold, like -4C or something. But we had a ripping 950mb flow from the SSE...the result was a period of moderate rain in Tolland while we got like 3-5" of paste in ORH on silver dollar flakes...and of course Kevin's meltdown ensued. The one is kind of similar in that sense...though this time I could see a burst of snow in the morning for CT before it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 37.8 currently. Stayed in the 30's today and yesterday. Not bad Congrats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Congrats?Hoping it bodes well for tomorrow's 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 37.8 currently. Stayed in the 30's today and yesterday. Not bad Good for the snow pack....oh wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z perhaps a .10" wetter across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So, any chance of snow at my respective locales? (andover/southie) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So, any chance of snow at my respective locales? (andover/southie) Andover yes, Southhie probably not. NAM seems to like NH though, but it gives a quick omega burst in NE MA before some warmer air moves in. NAM is still a bit warm for BED, but further NW would probably be ok. Tough call..because it could be 36F catpaws if the omega is not quite there. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 15z SREFs cooled a lot in the low levels...but that was bound to happen because they were a total furance in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Warning event on up into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like high end advisory, GYX just has out a HWO attm, Looks like 4-6" totals with maybe some higher amounts Saturday Rain and snow likely before noon, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 50% probs for 4"+ on the SREFs from C NH into W ME. I love when these sneaky little events pop up inside of 48-72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 50% probs for 4"+ on the SREFs from C NH into W ME. I love when these sneaky little events pop up inside of 48-72hrs. I think you guys are going to do fairly well relative to any previous indication may have led folks to think... Not to make this about me, but I also think us folks along Rt E of roughtly Orange and points N might just get clipped, too...Thing is, is the 00z's come in just that much more "kinked" and so forth we may get this down to the Pike, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If you want snow and your're in SNE..don't look at BOX snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18Z GFS is really juiced. Warning criteria NH into ME. Probably the higher terrain of N ORH county and possibly NE MA too depending on the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18Z GFS is really juiced. Warning criteria NH into ME. Probably the higher terrain of N ORH county and possibly NE MA too depending on the BL. Better tell BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18Z GFS is really juiced. Warning criteria NH into ME. Probably the higher terrain of N ORH county and possibly NE MA too depending on the BL. That is juiced. BOX map will bust if that happens. Even Kevin could get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18Z GFS is really juiced. Warning criteria NH into ME. Probably the higher terrain of N ORH county and possibly NE MA too depending on the BL. Like how things are ramping up qpf wise .75"+ this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18Z GFS is really juiced. Warning criteria NH into ME. Probably the higher terrain of N ORH county and possibly NE MA too depending on the BL.James started this thread 5 days ago with an initial idea of a threat, I immediately questioned it. I apologize, all though farther north than originally thought this threat is now real. Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 All guidance today has been between .50-.75" qpf today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Lay the carpet down for the cold. Hopefully our turn later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Lay the carpet down for the cold. Hopefully our turn later next week.When's the next CH visit? How much pack do the 'rents have up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wow, 18z GFS is definitely at least advisory snows north of the pike in the interior...close to warning snows near the NH border. Something to really keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 When's the next CH visit? How much pack do the 'rents have up there? Was supposed to be this weekend, but some things came up. Bummer. Probably similar amount to what you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z RGEM looking better too for interior SNE. This one definitely has some bust potential and might sneak up on a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z RGEM looking better too for interior SNE. This one definitely has some bust potential and might sneak up on a lot of folks. Bust high I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Bust high I assume? Well yeah, nobody is really forecasting anything in SNE...only one direction that can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well yeah, nobody is really forecasting anything in SNE...only one direction that can go. James has JUJU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dude that is a 4-6 hr pounder NW of 128 and north of the Pike. Wow, VVs through the roof. Even BOS is close to starting as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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