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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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Boundary layer warmth is an issue along the coastal plain, but during the afternoon hours a fairly robust frontogenic suggestion would erupt a burts of light to moderate snow N or the Pike and west of I-95.  Looks like that could be a snowy late afternoon scene, with butterscotch evening skies and snow falling in the street lamps before ending later one.   2 ...maybe some 3" amts?  Tricky though... when we get into meso- type stuff, there can be prodigious results here and there.

 

That's the appeal on this thing for me.  I am not concerned so much with a 40F entrance into this thing, because DP/wet bulbing into a column that is less than 540dm thickness is probably good for snowing into a shallow warm layer.

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Boundary layer warmth is an issue along the coastal plain, but during the afternoon hours a fairly robust frontogenic suggestion would erupt a burts of light to moderate snow N or the Pike and west of I-95.  Looks like that could be a snowy late afternoon scene, with butterscotch evening and snow falling in the street lamps before ending later one.   2 ...maybe some 3" amts?  Tricky though... when we get into meso- type stuff, there can be prodigious results here and there.

 

That's the appeal on this thing for me.  I am not concerned so much with a 40F entrance into this thing, because DP/wet bulb in a column that is less than 540dm thickness is probably good for snowing into a shallow warm layer.

Ugh...Two towns too far to the west for the heavy band in the Jan 2-3 deal, not 1-2 towns too far east for this :lol:

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Yeah that's nice looking. That's pretty good for like Rays area over to ORH hills and up into S NH. It did cool from the 00z run. BOS is at freezing at 12z tomorrow, so there could be at least flakes in the air right into the city...at least early on in the morning.

 

 

Even Kevin prob gets an inch in the morning.

We'll see...gravy, anyway.

Fun ahead.

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Ugh...Two towns too far to the west for the heavy band in the Jan 2-3 deal, not 1-2 towns too far east for this :lol:

 

 

Well ... I also mean that as, 'should it get that warm'

 

Frankly I think for a [partially] clear overnight with cloud deck running over at dawn is a pretty clear indication for "cold capping" and a chance that the models are warming the 1300m depth too much during the morning, tomorrow.  We'll see... just a sneakin' stupidstition.  Sometimes I dream up those types of idiosyncrasies and they are correct, other times ...heh, not so much. 

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Kevin it's close. 925mb is 0C for you at 12z. Cools slightly through 18z. You are gonna need a decent band I think for an inch or two. You'll probably get some minor accumulations although grass might show by 4pm...lol.

 

How 'bout the impulse coming over the boarder at 120!  wow... wonder what that's slated to do -

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Well if it's an inch you want then invest away. Hopefully lift is sufficient or it's curtains.

 

Hopefully he doesn't have to add a chapter into the "Tolland Horrors of Winter" chronicles...behind Dec 20, 2007 norlun, MLK storm 2010, Feb 24, 2013 inverted trough if Ray or ORH gets 4-5" of large aggregate paste and its cat paws or slushy coating in Tolland with 36F sunshine poking out of the clouds in the afternoon.

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I like seeing 100 joules of CAPE on the NAM soundings. Wiz doesn't even get those for some of high high shear/low CAPE days.

That said... boy it's toasty post-12z. Rain even for Tolland. Hopefully an early thump where things are just cold enough.

Met questions, where is that warmth generated from, upper air is cold, saturated column then mixes it up, how does the BL warm up so quickly with clouds.
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Met questions, where is that warmth generated from, upper air is cold, saturated column then mixes it up, how does the BL warm up so quickly with clouds.

Flow strengthens out of the southeast especially just off the deck. Looks warmest around 950mb. Mini torch there getting advected in from ACK. 

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