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January 18-19th "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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2m temps on nam are low 40's thru 10pm along 128...mid January

Wet bulbs at least get around 32 by 7pm.

Are we really gonna be that mild if we get precip along 128 belt, i dont buy that, unless se flow is strong Enuf

 

 

The NAM depiction prob isn't going to be true anyway, so its prob a moot point.

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2m temps on nam are low 40's thru 10pm along 128...mid January

Wet bulbs at least get around 32 by 7pm.

Are we really gonna be that mild if we get precip along 128 belt, i dont buy that, unless se flow is strong Enuf

 

Look at today though....it can happen.   This isn't a great airmass in place right now.

 

Boy has January whacked it aside of that one event so far!

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Look at today though....it can happen. This isn't a great airmass in place right now.

Boy has January whacked it aside of that one event so far!

No this airmass isnt great but there is some intrigue and potential on Saturday so im tryin to figure out if 128 has hope if precip emerges ....(hope for frozen)

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I think kev is very much in game on Saturday

Besides the nam my fav meso model shows a heavy plume mid am to noonish right over mt weenie w temps around 32-34 in the hills. Prob wont know where this sets up (if it doesn't fall apart) but seems to be trending better / more unstable . This looks like there is potential for a weenie "snow fall" for elevations in sne and /or w sne on sat.

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Messenger has mowed Walmart size parking lots. In Plymouth in despair over the absolute wretched ski conditions in Maine.

 

You should head up to SR they're still doing the $129 ski and stay this weekend..plenty of rooms open.  That is if you can get up there through all the heavy snow from the inverted trough and all the people fleeing northern New England in advance of the epic Leon outbreak on the way.

 

:)

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INVERTED TROF

NW OF THE SFC

LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE AND HANG PCPN

BACK INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS SAT

EVENING. ALL GUIDANCE

IS FORECASTING THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

ATTM

IT WOULD APPEAR MOST LIKELY

ACROSS SRN

ZONES. HAVE INCREASED

POP

FOR MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF THE CWFA

TO ACCOUNT FOR

PCPN

...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO REALLY KNOW WHERE OR IF QPF

WILL BE

ENHANCED. AGAIN TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AT THE SFC

...BUT INCREASED

PCPN

INTENSITY AND DIURNAL

COOLING COULD BE ENOUGH TO FLIP PTYPE

TO SNFL. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18

HOURS...AS IS THE CASE WITH THE LATEST ECMWF

QPF

AMOUNTS AROUND

0.75 INCHES WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IS WALKING A PRETTY FINE LINE

BETWEEN PALTRY AND PLOWABLE.

We don't punt?

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No snow in SNE from this?

If somehow a weenie band happened to pop over your head then maybe you could grab some, but I think it's mostly for the folks just over the border in NH and ME. Models have shifted a bunch as to be expected with inverted troughs, but I think you favor those areas.

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