dendrite Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 NAM looks quite norluny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 NAM looks quite norluny.You will hate me but one of the analogs today was the late Jan 94 norlun that nailed NYC LI, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You will hate me but one of the analogs today was the late Jan 94 norlun that nailed NYC LI, just saying... What date was that? That one is not ringing any bells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 What date was that? That one is not ringing any bells. totally NYC LI, 1/21 I think, let me find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 1/22/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 1/22/94 I had never heard of this event....so I looked up all the F6 data for Islip, LaGuardia, White Plains, Central Park.....nada. I think it is a glitch on the CIPS site. There was a clipper on the 26th that dumped like 3-5" across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I had never heard of this event....so I looked up all the F6 data for Islip, LaGuardia, White Plains, Central Park.....nada. I think it is a glitch on the CIPS site. There was a clipper on the 26th that dumped like 3-5" across the region. It makes no sense with that maps snow distribution in the small area around NYC and Bergen County. I'm pretty sure I've never seen that ....6+ in a small radius around NYC surrounded by nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It makes no sense with that maps snow distribution in the small area around NYC and Bergen County. I'm pretty sure I've never seen that ....6+ in a small radius around NYC surrounded by nada. The map shows 12+ in that zone...its pretty bizarre...even for a norlun. But it looks like nothing happened when I looked up the data. The NARR maps don't show it either. If you got that type of snow distribution, you'd expect to see a really defined inverted trough poking up from the southeast of LI and then turning almost westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hope this is not too far off topic.Decided to take the plunge and join..... Been following the board for 3 years and I enjoy the very knowledgeable and interesting discussions by all you good folks on here. I hope I can add a positive thing or two from my years of studying wx, observing and being a winter fanatic...but also enjoying everything all seasons throw at us in this wonderful part of the country . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The map shows 12+ in that zone...its pretty bizarre...even for a norlun. But it looks like nothing happened when I looked up the data. The NARR maps don't show it either. If you got that type of snow distribution, you'd expect to see a really defined inverted trough poking up from the southeast of LI and then turning almost westward. The map shows 12+ in that zone...its pretty bizarre...even for a norlun. But it looks like nothing happened when I looked up the data. The NARR maps don't show it either. If you got that type of snow distribution, you'd expect to see a really defined inverted trough poking up from the southeast of LI and then turning almost westward.Agree, I was just using CIPSb72 hour maps, let me go back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hope this is not too far off topic.Decided to take to take the plunge and join..... Been following the board for 3 years and I enjoy the very knowledgeable and interesting discussions by all you good folks on here. I hope I can add a positive thing or two from my years of studying wx, observing and being a winter fanatic...but also enjoying everything all seasons throw at us in this wonderful part of the country . Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The map shows 12+ in that zone...its pretty bizarre...even for a norlun. But it looks like nothing happened when I looked up the data. The NARR maps don't show it either. If you got that type of snow distribution, you'd expect to see a really defined inverted trough poking up from the southeast of LI and then turning almost westward. You have it right. Pretty clearly a glitch. The snowfall plots are generated by an algorithm that extrapolates the whole field from specific data point locations (and consequently butchers historical snowfall distribution where I grew up in Putnam Co NY because of a poor data network around there). Based on the perfectly parallel lines separating the different snowfall amounts, it's probably just one or two erroneous data points that caused the fake snowfall band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Total bad data, cancel that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Welcome! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hope this is not too far off topic.Decided to take to take the plunge and join..... Been following the board for 3 years and I enjoy the very knowledgeable and interesting discussions by all you good folks on here. I hope I can add a positive thing or two from my years of studying wx, observing and being a winter fanatic...but also enjoying everything all seasons throw at us in this wonderful part of the country .Welcome aboard please feel welcome and post often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Welcome aboard please feel welcome and post often. Thank you Ginxy. Appreciate that very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Thank you Ginxy. Appreciate that very much.Ginxy will convert you to the Church of Leon by reading the Dead Sea Scrolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Ginxy will convert you to the Church of Leon by reading the Dead Sea Scrolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Saturday looks like it could feature on and off light snow. Hopefully enough for an inch in some places Ukie and GGEm have norlun signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It was pretty uninspiring in New England outside of the south coast west of Newport, RI or so. Would have been a different story if it took the left turn 100-200 miles later. Just another rain storm up here Thank you Ginxy. Appreciate that very much. Welcome, And enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Saturday looks like it could feature on and off light snow. Hopefully enough for an inch in some places Ukie and GGEm have norlun signature you know it's bad when we're hoping for an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Saturday is starting to take on a bit of an unstable mini-norlun look or inverted trough. The lapse rates are very steep...and total totals are around 50. With that vort energy riding up into SNE, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some heavier bursts of rain/snow. It could be the type of thing where if you get a heavier burst, it goes from 37F to 33F and large aggregates and then back to smaller or even rain/snow mix when it lightens up...esp lower spots. BL flow might be too SE along the southeast coastal regions though and only rain showers would be supported if that's the case. But in a period of recent boring weather, this one could be sort of interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Saturday looks like it could feature on and off light snow. Hopefully enough for an inch in some places Ukie and GGEm have norlun signature Saturday is starting to take on a bit of an unstable mini-norlun look or inverted trough. The lapse rates are very steep...and total totals are around 50. With that vort energy riding up into SNE, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some heavier bursts of rain/snow. It could be the type of thing where if you get a heavier burst, it goes from 37F to 33F and large aggregates and then back to smaller or even rain/snow mix when it lightens up...esp lower spots. BL flow might be too SE along the southeast coastal regions though and only rain showers would be supported if that's the case. But in a period of recent boring weather, this one could be sort of interesting to track. My name is Bumpty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Saturday is starting to take on a bit of an unstable mini-norlun look or inverted trough. The lapse rates are very steep...and total totals are around 50. With that vort energy riding up into SNE, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some heavier bursts of rain/snow. It could be the type of thing where if you get a heavier burst, it goes from 37F to 33F and large aggregates and then back to smaller or even rain/snow mix when it lightens up...esp lower spots. BL flow might be too SE along the southeast coastal regions though and only rain showers would be supported if that's the case. But in a period of recent boring weather, this one could be sort of interesting to track. is this just sne or also cne nne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 is this just sne or also cne nne? No, I think your area can get it on it too. Its not really a well roganized inverted trough/norlun in the classic sense where we see a focused area of heavy snow. Maybe someone gets lucky and it trends that way, but right now its almost like disorganized bursts...we'll see as we get closer. Its mesoscale stuff so it won't be modeled very well. As an example of similar deficiencies in modeling, look at what happened in RIC this morning. They got like 1-2" on a heavier burst that lasted a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 My name is Bumpty You deserve a ted tag for this...sick call yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You deserve a ted tag for this...sick call yo. phil just rolled over on his lawn mower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS is really interesting for Saturday... that would be like 10" of +TSSN for Mount Snow VT. That's a NAM kind of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS looks good actually...esp for N MA and S VT/S NH. That would be a stripe of heavier snows from a more consolidated inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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