Predict the 2014 Global temperature anomaly

[The_Global_Warmer]

I tried to make the options as centralized as possible based on the most likely outcomes vs the last few years.

 

good luck

 

 

DEADLINE FOR CONTEST IS JANUARY 25TH AT 11PM ET.  ENTRIES MAY BE POSTED AFTER THAT TIME BUT WONT BE INCLUDED IN THE CONTEST THAT DON SUTHERLAND will be overseeing.

 

 

 

For the general poll there will be no deadline but please try and cast your vote before the end of January to uphold the general integrity of the results.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

For what Don S. does just post your predictions below.  If he wants to do something separate with NCDC that is fine.  But they are not full globe like GISS/UAH(yes UAH is only to 85N/S close enuf) and I figured one ground/Sat is fine.

 

 

So if Don is ok without NCDC and using UAH instead.  If UAH changes to version 6.0 we can decide later how we want to work it out.

 

So I am going with .67C on GISS and .29C on UAH.

 

Good luck.

[donsutherland1]

For what Don S. does just post your predictions below.  If he wants to do something separate with NCDC that is fine.  But they are not full globe like GISS/UAH(yes UAH is only to 85N/S close enuf) and I figured one ground/Sat is fine.

 

 

So if Don is ok without NCDC and using UAH instead.  If UAH changes to version 6.0 we can decide later how we want to work it out.

 

So I am going with .67C on GISS and .29C on UAH.

 

Good luck.

We can use GISS and UAH. I have no issues with that.

 

IMO, there should be a deadline for forecasts. I'll probably post mine early next week. I need to take a closer look at ENSO.

[AvantHiatus]

I think GISS will be warmer relative to UAH more so than usual this year. Going for .71 on GISS or right-around record territory. A moderate or strong el nino will make these predictions conservative.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think GISS will be warmer relative to UAH more so than usual this year. Going for .71 on GISS or right-around record territory. A moderate or strong el nino will make these predictions conservative.

Yeah I think we approach record territory if we enter a moderate El Niño. I'm also going lower on UAH because (I believe) UAH V6.0 is being released sometime this year, and Dr. Christy has hinted that the adjustments may bring UAH somewhat more in line with RSS.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Only 7 voters so far?

 

I hope folks don't conveniently vanish the next 15 days to avoid this thread.  There is nothing to be worried about. The more votes the better sampling we will get to see where Americanwx or at least the active CC posters feel about this.

 

 

So far a lot of have voted for near record or record on GISS.  And top 2-3 on UAH that could easily be off and to warm. 

 

 

it's impossible to say right now.  I hope we can get at least 50 participants by the 25th.

 

Remember folk to also give a specific prediction if you want to try your hand in the DonS contest.

[donsutherland1]

Only 7 voters so far?

 

I hope folks don't conveniently vanish the next 15 days to avoid this thread.  There is nothing to be worried about. The more votes the better sampling we will get to see where Americanwx or at least the active CC posters feel about this.

 

 

So far a lot of have voted for near record or record on GISS.  And top 2-3 on UAH that could easily be off and to warm. 

 

 

it's impossible to say right now.  I hope we can get at least 50 participants by the 25th.

 

Remember folk to also give a specific prediction if you want to try your hand in the DonS contest.

I certainly intend to participate. I agree and hope that as many people as possible participate.

[chubbs]

I voted for an increase this year but not  to record levels as recovery from back-to-back La Nina continues. Discounting for now model-predicted El Nino. 

[nflwxman]

I voted for an increase this year but not  to record levels as recovery from back-to-back La Nina continues. Discounting for now model-predicted El Nino. 

Probably a smart call given the models ineptitude the last few summers.  I'm going with weekly ENSO positive on the year with a possible tail end weak Nino.

[ORH_wxman]

Probably a smart call given the models ineptitude the last few summers.  I'm going with weekly ENSO positive on the year with a possible tail end weak Nino.

 

 

You can seehow quickly the subsurface warm anomalies eroded in the central Pacific once the easterlies picked back up. I know some people kept thinking those subsurface anomalies were a sign of El Nino coming, but they really do not mean anything unless they can be manifested at the surface.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I think we'll have at least a modest idea of where ENSO may head once we get into the month of May.

 

Right now, I'd probably pick something similar to 2013 temps barring an established Nino or Nina.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We are up to 12 voters. WOOO!

 

A wise Man once told me.  "People can be in conflict between what they think will happen and what they want to happen."

 

I fully admit that global warming is beyond my wants or wishes now.  it has been to me for about 14-18 months.  I want to be educated but mostly I want to be right.  if I voted for what I want to happen then I would be voting for option 1 on each poll.  But it would negate the point of the poll and put me in a bad place for trying to be objective. 

 

Instead...

 

I voted for near record on GISS and not close to a record on UAH because of ENSO.  I think we will go up a bit from 2013 but without a positive neutral or weak nino I doubt we break any records.

 

I just hope folks can put aside their internal conflicts and vote.  This internal conflict became apparent in last years sea ice poll.  Lots of folks voted with their heads and totally abandon that for their hearts when it was likely going to be off.

 

 

So if they voted with their hearts in that case they would have been voting against the odds but been right because of the extreme happenings last Summer.

 

It's alright, it's ok to expect one thing and wish and hope for another.

 

There is still a couple weeks to go so hopefully we see more people come around by then. I was hoping we could make charts and stuff but if we get 20 votes or less it will be moot.

[Jonger]

We are up to 12 voters. WOOO!

 

A wise Man once told me.  "People can be in conflict between what they think will happen and what they want to happen."

 

I fully admit that global warming is beyond my wants or wishes now.  it has been to me for about 14-18 months.  I want to be educated but mostly I want to be right.  if I voted for what I want to happen then I would be voting for option 1 on each poll.  But it would negate the point of the poll and put me in a bad place for trying to be objective. 

 

Instead...

 

I voted for near record on GISS and not close to a record on UAH because of ENSO.  I think we will go up a bit from 2013 but without a positive neutral or weak nino I doubt we break any records.

 

I just hope folks can put aside their internal conflicts and vote.  This internal conflict became apparent in last years sea ice poll.  Lots of folks voted with their heads and totally abandon that for their hearts when it was likely going to be off.

 

 

So if they voted with their hearts in that case they would have been voting against the odds but been right because of the extreme happenings last Summer.

 

It's alright, it's ok to expect one thing and wish and hope for another.

 

There is still a couple weeks to go so hopefully we see more people come around by then. I was hoping we could make charts and stuff but if we get 20 votes or less it will be moot.

 

I don't think anyone really WANTS global warming, besides some of my friends who really do want it because they hate winter (yea, they really do), but I think some people want it to get worse in order to accelerate action, kind of a catch 22, but its an opinion I have heard floated around.

 

I want carbon fuels to cease to be used, as more of an insurance policy against worst case scenarios coming to fruition. 

[ORH_wxman]

We don't need to turn these threads into policy or moral debates.

 

Post what you think the 2014 anomalies might be and stick to that.

[Mallow]

GISS: +0.67

UAH: +0.31

[skierinvermont]

.63 and .25 a hair warmer than this year, Assumed the ONI averages 0.0.. a hair higher than this year.

 

Assumed no change in UAH version.

 

Also why isn't Jonger bemoaning the constant adjustments (downwards) being made to UAH?

 

edit 1/21.. how about .26 for UAH

[chubbs]

.63 and .25 a hair warmer than this year, Assumed the ONI averages 0.0.. a hair higher than this year.

 

Assumed no change in UAH version.

 

Also why isn't Jonger bemoaning the constant adjustments (downwards) being made to UAH?

 That's pretty much what I was thinking a tick higher than this year if enso stays about where it is. .

[StudentOfClimatology]

.63 and .25 a hair warmer than this year, Assumed the ONI averages 0.0.. a hair higher than this year.

Assumed no change in UAH version.

Also why isn't Jonger bemoaning the constant adjustments (downwards) being made to UAH?

This would be the second time in two years UAH has decreased the warming trend. Awfully "convenient" if you ask me, given who the men behind the operation are. Just my hunch.

[nflwxman]

This would be the second time in two years UAH has decreased the warming trend. Awfully "convenient" if you ask me, given who the men behind the operation are. Just my hunch.

I'm sure Roy Spencer's intentions are fine, BUT It hard to take the satellite datasets seriously given the discrepancy between RSS and UAH and the constant (non uniform) adjustments.  When GISS makes their monthly adjustments, it rarely makes much of a difference in the decadal trend.  

 

Just my two cents. 

 

 

Oh an my vote for 2014:

 

GISS: 0.65

UAH: 0.27

[StudentOfClimatology]

The methods applied within the UAH and RSS computations are scientifically sound. The problem is orbital drift and/or decay of the radiometers. Orbital drift is fairly easy to correct for...noise, not-so-much. The AQUA instrument had to be killed off due to decay hence excessive noise.

That said, both surface data sets and satellites have their own host of problems. The satellites cover much more area, and are often relied upon to infill the oceans on surface datasets like HADCRUT4.

Either way, the differences between the datasets are very small.

[The_Global_Warmer]

17 votes so far.  I am extremely dissapointed.

[donsutherland1]

GISS: +0.65°C

UAH: +0.32°C

[forkyfork]

.68

.34

[The_Global_Warmer]

Only one week to go and half our normal subforum members have avoided this thread like the plague.

 

[AvantHiatus]

Only one week to go and half our normal subforum members have avoided this thread like the plague.

 

They are afraid to get burned inside the fiery abyss that is weather and climate prediction.

[The_Global_Warmer]

They are afraid to get burned inside the fiery abyss that is weather and climate prediction.

 

I am not sure it's that at all.

 

I believe it's all about what somebody wants to happen vs what they know/think will happen.  I think it creates to big of a conflict of interest for some people. 

 

 

UAH is pretty much a crap-shoot.  I mean 2013 finished pretty high.  So it's presumable that 2014 will probably finish a bit higher.  It's pretty hard to say with UAH because of the wild fluctuations that the lower troposphere can have because of the ocean cycles.  So it is a bit harder to predict.

 

However GISS is pretty straightforward at this point.  For 2013 GISS is going to finish at .61C.  Which will put 2013 as 6th warmest on GISS records. This is with an yearly ONI of -.033C going back to NDJ of 2012 through OND of 2013. 

 

So that is 4th warmest on UAH and 6th warmest on GISS with a very negative neutral ENSO all year.  No month ever went above -0.2.  While a period of -.3, -.6. -.6. -.4 from Dec-March of 2013 took place. 

 

In spite of ENSO being negative all year OHC jumped quite a bit.  In fact as I type this I see OHC updated for OND.  It jumped a lot from the JJA period.  Almost matched the big spike from the JFM period.  0-2000M will need the scale changed with two huge spikes this year upwards.  OHC historically leads surface temp changes by 8-16 months.  So under that time frame that JFM spike will be kicking sometime around now.

 

 

CFS is back up to .22C for January on the dailies with the monthlies at .110C(.66C GISS equivalent.)  I was very skeptical of GISS breaking a new record because the last OHC update was down quite a bit from the earlier two periods. 

 

 

However below is the yearly OHC breakdown.  2013 before the recent update was already 1.5 [10^22 J] above 2012.  With this recent update coming in around 13.8 [10^22 J].  This will bring 2013 up to 12.8.  Almost 2.0 above 2012. 

 

Does this guarantee a new yearly record?  Absolutely not.  Does it make it that much easier and guaranteed continued warming in spite of ENSO to some degree?  Yes.

 

There is clearly something changing over the last 12 months that is causing the Earth to up-take a lot of heat in oceans.  While SSTA stay very warm for ENSO conditions.  

 

 

1996 4.544000

1997 3.245000

1998 4.303500

1999 5.943000

2000 5.856500

2001 4.117000

2002 6.788750

2003 9.951750

2004 10.24050

2005 8.411750

2006 10.43025

2007 9.478500

2008 10.05225

2009 10.12600

2010 10.36725

2011 10.86900

2012 10.94075

2013 12.40161

 

 

 

 

 

If you most of someones post are partial to "cool" vs "warm" and vice versa.  And your heart wants you to say go for a .51 to .55 on GISS or even a .56-.60C.  But your mind is telling you it's probably going to be around .65 or so.  Maybe higher.

 

What do you do?  If you vote for .66 to .70C but your desire is for it to be .10C or so less.

 

You are now in conflict with ones human nature. 

 

It's akin to betting on your favorite sports team and having to bet for them to lose in order for you to be right or make money.  But you really want them to win badly.

 

Otherwise I have no idea why people would skip out on this again.  Especially when they will show back up to comment on this topic all year and talk about what other people believed would happen and all that.

 

I know pretty much every forum regular and casual has seen this thread and we only have 20 votes.  Maybe folks are waiting until the 25th.  But it's supremely disappointing.  After the epic busts of the sea ice thread last year no one should be worried about being wrong.

 

But based on the discussion in this forum from all the active members the fact that GISS record is .67C in 2010 and the .66-.70 category is only one vote behind the right below a new record category is not an accurate reflection of this forums overall view on it.

 

We are currently voting for UAH to be 3rd warmest.

[AvantHiatus]

Global Warmer, great post as usual. I think the big takeaway is that 2012 ranked the 9th warmest year on record. When your initial starting point is unusually low, you will have a tough time breaking records immediately.

 

We know for sure that 2013 was warmer than 2012, despite the cold anomalies across North America. This is huge. 2014 could be a big year.

 

The science of the ocean-atmosphere system is pretty well understood to know that temps will be heading in a generally upward direction this year. Afterall the ocean's heat carrying capacity is massive compared to land areas.

 

Have a good one and thanks for sharing your insights.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global Warmer, great post as usual. I think the big takeaway is that 2012 ranked the 9th warmest year on record. When your initial starting point is unusually low, you will have a tough time breaking records immediately.

 

We know for sure that 2013 was warmer than 2012, despite the cold anomalies across North America. This is huge. 2014 could be a big year.

 

The science of the ocean-atmosphere system is pretty well understood to know that temps will be heading in a generally upward direction this year. Afterall the ocean's heat carrying capacity is massive compared to land areas.

 

Have a good one and thanks for sharing your insights.

 

 

Most of the people who will be back later to criticize and comment on these predictions have done there yearly vanishing during prediction time.

 

In the end it's not a big deal and no one has to vote.  That is a personal choice.  I'd just like to see those who decide to not partake in this to also not partake in critiquing it. 

 

 

When I brought up that I don't like being criticized by people who don't have the stones to make a prediction.  A fair point that monthly predictions in global temps are basically guesses and an exercise in futility.  Which is a fair point.

 

But the yearly predictions are much more precise.  Easily more precise than sea ice predictions. 

 

The only other reason I could think of or was really told to me by someone else was the personal conflict.  Either way I hope those who participated have respect for each other as this goes along.  It's not like anyone will really bust except the predictions that require a volcanic eruption. 

 

But you know what at least those folks are beng true to their beliefs. 

[nzucker]

GISS: .61C

UAH: .26C

[chubbs]

giss: 0.64

uah: 0.27

[SVT450R]

.60

.25