Geos Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Lol Strong looking area of snow. Skilling showed this map at 5:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LOT goes SPS, depending how the snow tomorrow evening plays out, with the winds it could be quite interesting. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL547 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-140400-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER547 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014 /647 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014/...INTENSE BAND OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE SNOWAND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING...A POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOISTUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULDONSET BY DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS THE SNOWCOULD FALL MODERATELY TO HEAVILY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANDNORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH LATEMORNING. DURING THIS TIME...A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATEDHIGHER AMOUNTS...COULD FALL. THIS SNOWFALL APPEARS THAT IT WILLADVERSELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW WILLBECOME VERY LIGHT OR EVEN STOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ANDCONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHESOF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IT CURRENTLY APPEARSTHE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE80.WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWESTBY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTSPOTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE TUESDAY EVENING.THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL COULD RESULT IN LOWVISIBILITIES WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING ANDTUESDAY EVENING...SHOULD PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONSAND CONSIDER ALLOWING ADDITIONAL TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 all or nothing [tim]go big or go home[/tim] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 love those 45 dbz returns near rapid city, these things often go south of med range guidance but still probably just north of MBY to be too interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Based on current water vapor imagery off the COD site overlayed (sp) with surface pressure's and streamlines I'm leaning to this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This one will be interesting to watch over the next few hours, the sfc low is already south of most guidance. The GFS is close but it's actually stronger currently. 998.2mb low in northern SD as of 1z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Got a funny feeling about this one here tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I wished I could post what I'm seeing, on the water vapor deal, but I really don't know how to post screen shots. I will admit my computer skills are lacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I wished I could post what I'm seeing, on the water vapor deal, but I really don't know how to post screen shots. I will admit my computer skills are lacking What are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Got a funny feeling about this one here tonight As you should, IMO. My gut feeling is that this will over produce for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 What are you thinking? Central WI will need a winter storm warning if one hasn't been put out yet, for your area I'm thinking there is good chance of 3-5" overnight, for here in the metro, although the RUC shows heavier snows I think it will settle just south of the metro, with MSP at about 3.5" My self up here in the north metro could be lucky to see 2" The 21z HOP WRF seems be in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Central WI will need a winter storm warning if one hasn't been put out yet, for your area I'm thinking there is good chance of 3-5" overnight, for here in the metro, although the RUC shows heavier snows I think it will settle just south of the metro, with MSP at about 3.5" My self up here in the north metro could be lucky to see 2" The 21z HOP WRF seems be in agreement So what are your thoughts on Milwaukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So what are your thoughts on Milwaukee? Sorry, I'm not real good with how the lake will effect this system Edit: First of all I'm not all that confident where the surface and 850mb low will set up, my guess would be if one or both track over the ORD area you could get some lake effect snow, but to be quite honest my knowledge of lake effect snows is very limited. First of all is the lake open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This one will be interesting to watch over the next few hours, the sfc low is already south of most guidance. The GFS is close but it's actually stronger currently. 998.2mb low in northern SD as of 1z. sd sfc.png Isn't it rare to see snow accumulations south of a clipper track? And any concern warm air drawn north will cause mixed precip in Chicago area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Sorry, I'm not real good with how the lake will effect this system That's fine, it might add a couple inches, but it's still the synoptic snow that will be the larger portion of the deal. I'm leaning toward 3-4, maybe 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM over correcting? Or a trend back north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM over correcting? Or a trend back north? That matches my idea of Central WI getting clocked based on this evenings water vapor maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll admit this has been a bear to forecast, even as early as mid afternoon, as non of the short term models seem to have any agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That matches my idea of Central WI getting clocked based on this evenings water vapor maps And what are you seeing on a WV loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 And what are you seeing on a WV loop? A 1002 mb low setting near the junction of the MN/SD/ND border Edit: you can see it if you go to the COD page, under weather analysis and tools. Click on the North Central tab and chose water vapor, once you see that click on the products menu and you can see the surface pressure plus the wind streamlines. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Lots of wind for this thing for a clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Lots of wind for this thing for a clipper? Pretty tight pressure gradient on the backside of the low, could easily see some gust over 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wish there was some more certainty on the track of the sfc low. Get a track like the 00z NAM and we get dry slotted and grazed by the deform band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 A 1002 mb low setting near the junction of the MN/SD/ND border water vapor loop usually doesn't show MSLP? And as of 2z, the sfc low was near ABR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 water vapor loop usually doesn't show MSLP? And as of 2z, the sfc low was near ABR. On the Cod you have to manually load it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Sub 998mb low in northern/eastern SD from MBG-ABR-ATY. 4mb stronger than the 0z NAM and 2mb stronger than the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The Ruc has been good showing the northern solution most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 LOT's graphic 4KM NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Sub 998mb low in northern/eastern SD from MBG-ABR-ATY. 4mb stronger than the 0z NAM and 2mb stronger than the RAP. did you find that on the COD site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 DVN pulls a WWA for the northern counties. Mainly for blowing snow. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A MILE ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 5 ABOVE.* IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS. Wagons north - Bo should be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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